Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
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With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Tuesday’s seven-game slate.
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Philadelphia 76ers: C Joel Embiid
The prop: 48.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The odds: Over -115/Under -110
The numbers will probably say that Embiid is due for some regression, but “The Process” does not care about numbers. He only cares about memes, trolling people on Twitter, and absolutely destroying teams on the basketball court.
Embiid has been doing a ton of the latter recently. He’s coming off a massive performance in his last game, racking up 40 points, 14 rebounds, and 10 assists against the Cavaliers on Saturday. Embiid has been an absolute monster from a usage perspective of late. He’s posted an average usage rate of 43.8% over his past 13 games, which is simply insane.
Embiid should also continue to carry an expanded workload following the James Harden trade. Harden is not ready to suit up yet while the team lost Seth Curry and Andre Drummond in trades. Embiid has increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.5% with Curry off the floor this season, and losing Drummond leaves the team without their typical backup center. That could translate to a few extra minutes for Embiid.
Overall, expect Embiid to keep crushing until Harden is able to join him in the rotation.
Boston Celtics: C Al Horford
The prop: 14.5 Points + Rebounds
The odds: Over -125/Under -110
Horford came out of the gates red hot this season, but he has cooled off a bit since then. However, he’s starting to turn things around again. He’s hit at least 14 points + rebounds in each of his past seven, and he’s gone over 14.5 in four of them. Overall, he’s averaged 16.7 points + rebounds over his past eight games.
The Celtics are going to need as many options as possible to try and slow down Embiid, so expect Horford to see towards the top end of his minute expectation. That should translate to another solid game with a real chance at topping 14.5 points + rebounds.
Editor’s Note: New to NBA props? Check out our complete NBA Props Betting Guide.
Boston Celtics: SF Jaylen Brown
The prop: 23.5 Points
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Brown occasionally gets overlooked for the Celtics, but he’s having another very strong season. His shooting numbers are a bit down – he’s shooting 45.5% from the field and 34.2% from three-point range – and he’s still averaging 23.5 points per game.
His numbers have been down recently, going for 22 points or fewer in five of his past six games, which has caused his scoring prop to dip for Tuesday’s game vs. the 76ers. The Sixers are a tough matchup – they rank eighth in team defensive efficiency – but Brown has the potential to go off against anyone. He already has one 30-point performance vs. the 76ers this season.
This looks like a fine buy-low opportunity.
Minnesota Timberwolves: C Karl-Anthony Towns
The prop: 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
The odds: Over -125/Under -110
Towns is one of the most talented big men in the league. He made waves earlier this season by claiming to be the best shooting big man in history, and he made his third All-Star game of his career. The Timberwolves are also currently in seventh place in the Western Conference standings, so Towns’ impact has translated to winning games for Minnesota.
Still, I can’t help but feel disappointed in Towns from a statistical standpoint. He’s averaging less than 10 rebounds per game for the first time in his career. He’s averaging fewer points than he has in each of the past four seasons and fewer dimes than he has in the past three seasons. Some of that has to do with the emergence of teammate Anthony Edwards with the occasional breakout game from D’Angelo Russell as well.
This is a quality matchup for Towns, but he still seems overpriced in the player prop market.
Charlotte Hornets: SF Miles Bridges
The prop: 6.5 Rebounds
The odds: Over -135/Under +110
The Hornets stand out as one of the best Over squads on the day. The Timberwolves have been an elite team to target of late, ranking second in pace over their past 10 games. They’re also 25th in defensive efficiency, which is a great combination for opposing players to rack up stats in a hurry.
The Hornets have also been playing a thin rotation of late, which has benefitted their starters. Bridges is coming off just 30.9 minutes in his last game, but he averaged 37.4 minutes over his previous eight games. Bridges has averaged more than seven rebounds per game (36-minute average) this season, so there’s plenty of reason to take the Over in this matchup.
