Sunday Night Football Prop Bets: 49ers vs. Chargers Player Props (Week 10)

The 49ers are sizable favorites at home after their bye in Week 9. I agree with San Francisco being larger than a touchdown favorite. So, that’s reflected in the following player props. A negative game script for the Chargers would be a plus for the first two overs. Conversely, a good game script would be ideal for the last of the featured 49ers vs. Chargers player props.

49ers vs. Chargers Player Props: Week 10

Here are the three 49ers vs. Chargers player props I like for Sunday Night Football.

Justin Herbert Over 37.5 Pass Attempts

Justin Herbert will likely air it out often against the 49ers. First, the Chargers play at a fast tempo and utilize a pass-first offense. Per Football Outsiders, Los Angeles is first in situation-neutral pace. Second, according to numberFire, the Chargers have attempted 85 passes and only 39 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their last three games.

The Chargers’ pass-first tendencies are a matchup fit against the 49ers. San Francisco has an elite run defense. According to Football Outsiders, they’re fourth in rush defense DVOA. As a result, teams are taking to the air instead of running into the teeth of their defense. Teams have attempted 138 passes and 119 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts against the 49ers this year. However, they’ve faced some mobile quarterbacks, and Justin Fields (8), Russell Wilson (6), Marcus Mariota (5), Matthew Stafford (3), and Geno Smith (1) also combined for 23 attempts. Some of the quarterbacks’ rushing attempts were scrambles, but some were likely designed runs as well.

But, of course, the Chargers are underdogs and will be in a negative game script if things go according to the betting line, which would enhance their need to pass it. Herbert’s pass attempts totals this year have been encouraging, too. He’s attempted 57, 51, and 43 passes in his previous three games, has fallen short of 37.5 pass attempts only twice, exceeded 37.5 pass attempts in all three of Los Angeles’s losses, averages 43.9 pass attempts per game, and has a median outcome of 44 pass attempts this year. Thus, I’m all over Herbert’s over for 37.5 pass attempts.

Where to bet: Justin Herbert Over 37.5 Pass Attempts | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Austin Ekeler Over 40.5 Receiving Yards

Austin Ekeler has been the apple of Herbert’s eye lately. Therefore, if Herbert chucks it often, as I’m projecting with the first prop selection, then Ekeler should be busy in the passing attack.

Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out, removing LA’s top two wideouts from the equation. Both wideouts were out last week, and Ekeler had eight targets, seven receptions, and 24 receiving yards. Still, he caught all 12 of his targets for 96 yards in Week 7 and reeled in 10 receptions on 16 targets for 47 yards in Week 6.

Ekeler has had more than 40.5 receiving yards five times in eight games this year. He’s also bested 40.5 receiving yards in all three of the Chargers’ losses this season. Ekeler averages 47.6 receiving yards per game and has a median outcome of 47.5 receiving yards. Unfortunately, per Football Outsiders, running backs average only 30.0 receiving yards per game against the 49ers. Regardless, Ekeler is one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL and is force-fed targets. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Ekeler’s 20.3% Target Share is the highest among running backs, a whopping 3.2% higher than the second-highest mark of 17.1% tallied by Rhamondre Stevenson. As a result, I’m not concerned about the challenging matchup and am betting on Ekeler zooming past 40.5 receiving yards.

Where to bet: Austin Ekeler Over 40.5 Receiving Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 Rushing Yards

Christian McCaffrey handled only eight rushes for 38 yards in his debut with the 49ers in Week 7. Then, he toted the rock 18 times for 94 yards in Week 8 after he had more time to process San Francisco’s playbook. According to Pro-Football-Reference, CMC had an 81% snap share in Week 8 and had 18 of 22 rush attempts by San Francisco’s running backs. Jeff Wilson had the backfield’s other four carries, and he’s been shipped off to the Dolphins. However, Elijah Mitchell is back this week and can serve as CMC’s backup.

Still, CMC is a bell-cow back and has a mouthwatering matchup. The Chargers are 29th in rush defense DVOA. Additionally, per Pro-Football-Reference, running backs average 134.1 rushing yards per game at a scintillating 6.03 yards per carry against the Chargers this season. McCaffrey is better than most of the running backs who’ve contributed to the blistering 6.03 yards per carry against the Chargers this year. Still, CMC would need just 14 attempts at the average LA is yielding to running backs to hit his rushing yardage over.

The game script should help CMC eclipse 79.5 rushing yards, too. According to numberFire, the 49ers have attempted 134 passes and attempted 144 rushes with non-quarterbacks when tied or leading this year. So, I expect McCaffrey to have a yeoman-like workload and smash his total of 79.5 rushing yards.

Where to bet: Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 Rushing Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook

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