It’s May 12, but you’re just going to have to trust us here — just as you did a couple of weeks ago with the NFL Draft: Nothing floats the American sports betting boat as much as the National Football League. So it’s no surprise that moments after the 2022-23 NFL schedule was released Thursday night, the NFL Week 1 odds market opened for business.
Per usual, the regular season kicks off with a Thursday night game, this time on Sept. 8. The matchup: The Buffalo Bills vs. the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams. And that’s not the only intriguing opening week contest.
With the full schedule out, Props.com hit up multiple bookmakers for numbers and insights on NFL Week 1 odds.
2022-23 NFL Week 1 Odds
| Matchup | Time | Spread | Over/Under |
| Bills at Rams | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Sept. 8 | Rams -1 | 52.5 |
| Ravens at Jets | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Ravens -4.5 | 45 |
| Saints at Falcons | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Saints -3.5 | 42 |
| Patriots at Dolphins | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Dolphins -3 | 45 |
| Browns at Panthers | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Browns -4.5 | 43.5 |
| Steelers at Bengals | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Bengals -6.5 | 44.5 |
| 49ers at Bears | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | 49ers -6.5 | 42 |
| Eagles at Lions | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Eagles -4 | 46.5 |
| Colts at Texans | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Colts -8 | 44 |
| Jaguars at Commanders | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Commanders -3.5 | 44 |
| Chiefs at Cardinals | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Chiefs -3 | 53 |
| Raiders at Chargers | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Chargers -4 | 51.5 |
| Packers at Vikings | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Packers -2 | 49 |
| Giants at Titans | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Titans -6.5 | 44 |
| Buccaneers at Cowboys | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, Sept. 11 | Buccaneers -1.5 | 52 |
| Broncos at Seahawks | 5:15 p.m. ET Monday, Sept. 12 | Broncos -3.5 | 41 |
Odds via The SuperBook and updated as of 3:30 a.m. ET May 13.
Bills vs Rams Highlights NFL Week 1 Odds
You can’t do much better than this for an NFL regular-season opener. The game pretty much has to feature the Rams, opening their title defense at home. Pitting them against a Buffalo Bills team that last season helped produce one of the most entertaining playoff games ever? That’s pretty good work by the schedule makers.
Matt Stafford and Los Angeles are coming off a 23-20 Super Bowl victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. The Rams won on a Stafford-to-Cooper Kupp 1-yard TD pass with 1:25 remaining in the fourth quarter. But Cincinnati cashed as a 4.5-point underdog.
When we last saw Buffalo, it was for the Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes duel in last season’s AFC Divisional Round. Allen threw for 329 yards and four TDs, with no INTs — he was all but unstoppable. But Mahomes got the final word, and the Bills fell 42-36 in overtime as 2.5-point underdogs.
Bookmakers certainly remain impressed with the state of affairs in Buffalo, as the Bills are the +700 co-favorite in the Super Bowl odds market, joined by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Still, Casey Degnon, senior risk supervisor at The SuperBook, said the trading team settled on the Rams as the slimmest possible favorite. L.A. opened -1, with a total of 52.5.
“We’re in a group chat, and we all sent in individual spreads and totals for all Week 1 games, before meeting somewhere in the middle and opening the games,” Degnon said. “The expectation is that this will be a heavily bet game by sharps and the public alike. It’s a great matchup, stand-alone game, with a lot of points expected to be scored. So that is the perfect recipe for a game with a lot of handle.”
L.A. went 16-5 SU/10-11 ATS last season, while Buffalo finished 12-7 SU/10-7-2 ATS.
Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said the pressure will be on the Bills after they fell short last season.
“Many people are saying it’s a matter of when not if the Bills win a Super Bowl,” he said. “This is a big year for them and certainly a big stage for them to open the season at the Super Bowl champions. They’ll have to prove it right off the bat.”
Broncos vs Seahawks Odds on Monday Night
The bookend to Week 1 is pretty compelling as well. Granted, neither the Denver Broncos nor Seattle Seahawks reached the playoffs last year. In fact, Denver hasn’t made it to the postseason since its 2015-16 run to the Super Bowl title.
But the Broncos got a nice little offseason acquisition: QB Russell Wilson. So those deviously smart schedule makers at NFL HQ figured: Why not Broncos at Seahawks, pitting Russell Wilson against his team of 10 years — and all the forces of the 12th Man — in Seattle?
The SuperBook opened Denver -3.5, with a total of 41, suggesting that both defensive-oriented teams might lack firepower.
“Russell Wilson returning to Seattle in prime time. The last game of the week, parlays and teasers will be tied to this game, along with bettors trying to get their money back from Sunday,” Degnon said. “Expectations for Seattle are low this year, but in Week 1 everyone is 0-0. So Seattle will be rocking, and that should be a fun game to watch.”
Other Noteworthy NFL Week 1 Odds
So what about those defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals? Joe Burrow and Co. get right to work with a kickoff in the early slate of Sunday games on Sept. 11, hosting the AFC North rival Pittsburgh Steelers.
As noted above, Cincinnati fell just short of winning last year’s Super Bowl, losing to the Rams 23-20 on Los Angeles’ home field. The Bengals went 10-7 SU and ATS in the regular season, then made a surprising 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run through the playoffs. Cincy’s postseason surge included an impressive 27-24, come-from-behind overtime upset win at Kansas City as a 7-point ‘dog in the AFC Championship Game.
Pittsburgh went 9-7-1 SU/8-9 ATS last season, barely snagging a Wild Card bid with longtime QB Ben Roethlisberger on his last legs. The Steelers got smoked at Kansas City 42-21 as hefty 11-point pups on Super Wild Card Weekend. Roethlisberger has since retired, and rookie first-round pick Kenny Pickett may well be Pittsburgh’s new starter. For the moment, newly acquired Mitch Trubisky is No. 1 on the Steelers’ depth chart.
Cincinnati opened as a 6.5-point favorite in The SuperBook’s NFL Week 1 odds market, with a total of 44.5.
As for the Chiefs, who are always in the championship mix these days, they open the 2022-23 campaign at the Arizona Cardinals. Kansas City is laying 3 at The SuperBook. The total of 53 is the highest on the Week 1 board, a tick above Bills-Rams at 52.5.
“The Chiefs are an exciting team. Pair that with the Cardinals and Kyler Murray, who are fun to watch, and that should get some good money,” Degnon said.
Pullen said he’s not too worried about the Chiefs losing speedy receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins.
“I think the Chiefs will find some ways to spread it around,” he said. “They’ll get a lot of people involved. I think they’ll be just fine as long as they have Patrick Mahomes throwing the ball.”
Finally, we get a repeat of the 2021-22 regular-season opener in the 2022-23 Sunday night opener. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 1.5-point road favorites against the Dallas Cowboys, with the total opening at 52. The Bucs are +700 co-favorites with the Bills to win the Super Bowl this season.
“Tom Brady vs. America’s Team. What more do I have to say,” Degnon said.
Caesars said a New Jersey bettor wagered $5,000 on the Cowboys +3 before the line moved to 2.5.
Road Favorites Galore
The home underdog has been a favorite of some bettors over the years, and they will have ample options in Week 1, as the road team is favored in a whopping 10 of the 16 games.
That includes the Buccaneers -1.5 against the Cowboys on Sunday night and the Broncos -3.5 against the Seahawks on Monday. Other road favorites include Green Bay -2 at Minnesota and Cleveland -4.5 at Carolina in what could be quarterback Deshaun Watson’s Browns debut. (He faces a possible suspension because of sexual assault and misconduct allegations.)
“The toughest game to set a number for was Browns at Panthers just because of the uncertainty,” Degnon said. “… If Watson was 100% in the number would be higher, if he was 100% out the number would be lower, so we tried to meet somewhere in the middle on that game.”
The biggest favorites of Week 1 – sure to be popular in survivor pools – are the Indianapolis Colts, who are laying 8 at Houston.
“Houston seems to be in a rebuild even though they were competitive late in the season last year,” Degnon said. “Their power rating is low until we see something that tells us otherwise.”