Patrick Mahomes ran away with the accolade in 2022 with an impressive 41 passing touchdowns. Unsurprisingly, he holds the best odds to be the NFL passing touchdown leader again in 2023.
Joe Burrow, among other familiar faces in the passing TD race, look to challenge Mahomes in the upcoming season.
We’ll break down the favorites and sleepers below.
Who Will Lead NFL In Passing Touchdowns For 2023?
Patrick Mahomes holds the best odds (+200) to defend his title from last year. This would be a safe bet considering the dominance Mahomes showed over Joe Burrow, the second-place finisher in 2022, as he had 41 passing touchdowns compared to Burrows’ 35. Still, health is always a giant variable when betting on an NFL season-long prop like this.
After a disappointing, injury-plagued rookie year in 2020, Burrow broke out for 34 passing touchdowns in 2021 and 35 in the Bengals’ Super Bowl run in 2022. At +400 in second place, it is reasonable to assume similar numbers from Cincinnati’s star quarterback in 2023.
Josh Allen, last year’s second-place finisher (tied with Burrow), has the third-best odds at +450.
NFL Passing Touchdowns Odds 2023
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +200 |
| Joe Burrow | +400 |
| Josh Allen | +450 |
| Justin Herbert | +700 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +900 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| Kirk Cousins | +2500 |
| Russell Wilson | +2500 |
| Jared Goff | +3000 |
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Who Had The Most Passing Touchdowns In 2022?
After running away with the passing touchdowns race in 2022, Patrick Mahomes is getting the most betting support with 11.5% of tickets going his way. However, the Chiefs’ QB is not receiving the handle to match that betting support as he sits in a surprising fourth place with just 9.0% of tickets.
| Player | Passing TDs |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 41 |
| Josh Allen | 35 |
| Joe Burrow | 35 |
| Geno Smith | 30 |
| Kirk Cousins | 29 |
| Jared Goff | 29 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 26 |
| Tom Brady | 25 |
| Justin Herbert | 25 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 25 |
It is the second-place QB Joe Burrow that holds the most handle to his name with 17.6% of the money. The betting public is clearly buying into the synergy between Burrow and star wideout, Ja’Marr Chase, who is in contention for most receiving yards in 2023.
The contrast between third-place Josh Allen (+450) and fourth-place Justin Herbert (+700) is also worth noting. Although Allen had 35 passing TDs to Herbert’s 25, Allen has just 3.5% of tickets and 1.2% of money compared to Herbert’s 10.6% of tickets and 8.3% of the money.
Will Lamar Jackson Show Out In 2023
Lamar Jackson only played 12 games in the 2022 season due to a knee sprain. So it is no surprise that he is second in betting handle (16.1%) behind only Patrick Mahomes as the Baltimore faithful rallies around their new franchise quarterback worth $260 million over the next five years.
In those 12 games last season, Jackson passed for 17 touchdowns. The addition of Zay Flowers in the first round of this year’s draft (and having a healthy crew of WRs) could be a major reason that fans have no doubt in Baltimore’s QB to be in the hunt for the most passing TDs in 2023.
Will the Ravens contend for the division? Check Josh Shepardson’s AFC North Predictions for his best bet heading into the season.
Is Trevor Lawrence A Dark-Horse?
Lawrence sits in a surprising 12th place with just +4000 odds to lead the NFL in passing TDs. It is difficult to ignore the Jaguars winning the AFC South with the former Clemson QB at the helm. Lawrence even cracked the top 10 with 25 passing TDs of his own in 2022.
Calvin Ridley is finally going to be on the field after sustaining a foot injury in 2021 and then getting suspended for the 2022 season for betting on games. In 2020 the former Falcons WR had a career year with 90 receptions and 1,374 yards, making him an excellent target for Lawrence to assert himself in the passing TDs race.
