The NBA Playoffs are in full swing and so are our NBA props.
If you are new to NBA props, you can check out our complete NBA Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed. If you are a regular to these select proposition bets, then you know the drill by now: We will select a pair of Celtics vs Bucks player props as well as two from the Grizzlies vs Warriors nightcap on Wednesday.
Want to dive deeper into researching NBA props? Our sister site, Betprep.com, has a handy Prop Betting Cheat Sheet along with several tools to help you pinpoint betting value. It’s a handy screening tool that we use to formulate the following recommendations.
Speaking of which, how about we jump into the highlighted NBA props for Wednesday’s two-game playoff slate?
Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 10 a.m. ET on May 11.
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Celtics vs Bucks Player Props
Milwaukee Bucks: F Giannis Antetokounmpo
The prop: 6.5 assists (at Boston)
The odds: Over -140/Under -105
There’s some significant juice to the Over on this prop, but it’s worth laying because it’s definitely the correct side.
Antetokoumpo has recorded seven or more assists in six of nine playoff games so far. He’s averaging exactly eight assists in the first four games of this series with the Celtics. That’s a pretty big uptick from the 5.8 assists he averaged during the regular season. But there’s a good reason for that jump: Giannis has logged nearly 40 minutes per game in this series, which is significantly higher than his 33-minute average in the regular season.
It’s not rocket science: More playing time equals more stats, especially for a high-usage player like Antetokounmpo. Speaking of usage, the former MVP held a 34.6 percent usage rate in the regular season. That has increased to 37.7 percent so far in the playoffs.
So let’s take inventory of the factors signaling Over 6.5 assists: More minutes, more usage, and a higher assist rate in the postseason. Pretty simple, huh? Throw in a likely competitive battle at Boston on Wednesday, and Antetokounmpo should hand out enough dimes to fly past this total.
Boston Celtics: G Marcus Smart
The prop: 14.5 points (vs. Milwaukee)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
Smart wears a variety of hats for the Celtics. Most notably, he’s a lockdown defender, adequate ball-handler, and efficient distributor. However, he’s not exactly a proficient scorer. That responsibility usually lands on the shoulders of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (and Al Horford — whenever he stumbles upon the fountain of youth).
Sure, Smart will get his fair share of shots while seeing a full 36-plus minute workload, but that’s not really his game. Even though we’ve seen Smart run into more buckets on occasion, he’s not locked into many shot attempts when Boston is at full strength (as it is now).
Case in point: Smart is averaging 12.3 points and 10.7 field goal attempts in three playoff games against the Bucks. His regular-season baseline was 12.1 points per contest.
On top of that, Smart is playing through a quad injury. While the Defensive Player of the Year proved he can handle heavy minutes in Game 4 despite the ailment, lower-body injuries have a tendency to throw off jump shooting mechanics.
Add it all up, and all signs point to the Under on this prop.
Grizzlies vs Suns Player Props
Memphis Grizzlies: F/C Jaren Jackson Jr.
The prop: 17.5 points (vs. Golden State)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
With Ja Morant out for the Grizzlies, other starters like Jackson will need to step up.
Jackson answered the call (albeit in a losing effort) in Game 4, posting 21 points in 34 minutes. That’s despite shooting 7-for-21 from the field (including 0-for-7 from 3-point range). If he can just produce a somewhat normal shooting night, Jackson should fly past 17.5 points in a must-win game for Memphis.
Another reason to like this bet: Jackson has consistently stepped up in Morant’s absence this season. In 21 games without his All-Star point guard running mate, Jackson averaged 18.5 points and a 28.1 percent usage rate. Compare that to 15.5 points per game and a 24.7 percent usage rate in 57 games with Morant on the floor.
Foul trouble is always a concern with Jackson — just as it is when betting any player Over his prop number. But if he keeps his hands to himself, he’s a great pick to score 18-plus points. Which he pretty much has to do if the Grizzlies are going to extend this series with their electric point guard sidelined.
Golden State Warriors: F Andrew Wiggins
The prop: 15.5 points (at Memphis)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
Wiggins is probably the fourth scoring option for the Warriors, but he’s still involved enough to go Over 15.5 points in Game 5 at Memphis.
In fact, Wiggins has scored 16-plus points in all four games of this series. Why stop now? If we zoom out a little bit more, we’ll see that Wiggins has gone Over this scoring prop in five of his six most recent playoff games.
The former No. 1 overall pick averaged 17.2 points per game in the regular season. Sure, that could be somewhat inflated due to Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson missing time. But Wiggins’ scoring is supported by seeing nearly 40 minutes of court time and 12-15 field-goal attempts in every playoff game.
Put it all together, and Wiggins looks like a solid bet to score 16-plus points for the fifth straight time in this series.
