Top Five Underdog Fantasy NFL Props: Week 12

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) celebrates a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Image Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!

Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.

It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:

  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
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It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL props for the main slate of Week 12.

Mac Jones UNDER 224.5 Passing Yards

New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones drops back to pass and looks down the field for an open receiver
Image Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not taking anything away from Mac Jones’ stellar rookie season by taking the under on his passing yards this week. Still, part of the reason for his success has been Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels not heaping too much on his plate.

According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, New England passes at a 54% rate, lower than the league average of 57%. Further, they’re playing at a below-average pace against an opponent, the Tennessee Titans, that wants to do the same. According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots are 24th in situation neutral pace, and Tennessee is 23rd.

In addition, the Titans are less imposing against the run than the pass. According to Football Outsiders, Tennessee is 18th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 13th in pass defense DVOA.

Finally, Jones’ passing yardage trend in wins and losses is eye-catching. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Jones has averaged 212.1 passing yards in wins and 263.8 passing yards in losses. Of course, this makes sense given the likely game script difference between their wins and losses.

This week, the Patriots are 6.5-point favorites, and Jones has exceeded 224.5 passing yards in two of seven wins this year. So, it’s understandable why Bet Prep projects Jones to pass for only 223.79 passing yards.

Darrell Henderson Jr. OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Rams running back #27 Darrell Henderson tries to find running room in a 2021 home game against the Arizona Cardinals.
Image Credit: Harry How/Getty Images

Unfortunately, Darrell Henderson Jr. has failed to rush for more than 64.5 yards in back-to-back games and three of his last four. Thankfully, he has a great rebound spot against the Green Bay Packers this week.

The Packers are 12th in pass defense DVOA. However, they’re just 26th in rush defense DVOA. There is clearly an easier path to success for the Rams on the ground than through the air, and they have the line to pave the way to success for Henderson. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams are fourth in Adjusted Line Yards.

Probably not coincidentally, Hendersons’s back-to-back duds have come in losses. This week, the Rams are 1.5-point favorites, and Henderson has rushed for more than 64.5 yards in four of six games he’s played that the Rams have won. So I expect the Rams to keep this competitive even if they don’t pull out the win, creating a neutral or positive game scrip for Henderson to gash the Packers.

Justin Jefferson OVER 87.5 Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver #18 Justin Jefferson celebrates a first down against the Seahawks.
Image Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports

Justin Jefferson is a certified baller. According to Sports Info Solutions, he is 13th in target share (25.2%). Impressively, that’s the least eye-catching of his marks this year. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers targeted at least 30 times in 2021, Jefferson is sixth with 2.53 yards per route run.

Jefferson’s dreamy combination of receiving high-volume and top-shelf efficiency has, predictably, resulted in excellent receiving yardage totals. He is fourth this season with 94.4 receiving yards per game. Unfortunately, there’s a little more volatility in his game log than I usually like when betting a player’s receiving yards over. Nevertheless, Jefferson has been dialed in, recording 143 receiving yards in Week 10 and 169 in Week 11.

The Minnesota Vikings should find more success through the air than on the ground this week. The San Francisco 49ers are third in rush defense DVOA and 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Thus, I expect Jefferson to carve them up, and Bet Prep agrees, projecting 88.5 receiving yards for the sophomore wideout.

Deebo Samuel UNDER 5.5 Receptions

San Francisco wide receiver #19 Deebo Samuel tries to find running room in a 2021 road game.
Image Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Deebo Samuel is going off this year. However, the dynamics in San Francisco’s offense have changed recently. In Week 9, George Kittle returned from the injured reserve. Meanwhile, second-year wideout Brandon Aiyuk has reverted to his excellent rookie-season form.

As a result, Samuel isn’t the target hog and one-man show in the passing attack he’s been most of this year. In fact, according to Pro Football Focus, since Week 9, Samuel has been second on the team in routes (84) and third in targets (15), receptions (11), and receiving yards (175).

Still, that’s not the only recent development. The yards-after-catch monster has been used as a runner more often. Samuel toted the rock five times in Week 10 and eight times last week. The changes in Samuel’s role have resulted in five receptions, five receptions, and one reception in the previous three weeks. Bet Prep and I agree that he’s a good bet to go under 5.5 receptions this week, with Bet Prep projecting Samuel for 4.65 receptions.

Brandon Aiyuk OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards

Brandon Aiyuk #11 celebrates with teammate George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers after getting a touchdown in the second half of the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Levi's Stadium on November 15, 2021 in Santa Clara, California.
Image Credit: Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images

As I explicitly stated in Samuel’s write-up, Aiyuk has resembled the superb rookie he was in 2020. In the last three weeks, he has led the 49ers in routes (87), targets (19), receptions (16), and receiving yards (200).

I’m throwing out Aiyuk’s early-season struggles when he was in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse. Instead, I’m focusing on the most recent data points. Aiyuk has gone over 56.5 receiving yards in two of his last three games.

Bet Prep seemingly agrees with my decision to lean on the second-year wideout’s most play. As a result, they are projecting him for 56.81 receiving yards this week.