Christmas gives us the gift of two NFL games. We have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Props to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
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AJ Dillon OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards
The Green Bay Packers are 7.5-point favorites against the visiting Cleveland Browns. The lopsided spread is an integral factor for selecting over 46.5 rushing yards for AJ Dillon.
According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin is between trailing by seven points and leading by seven points, Green Bay runs at only a 42% clip. However, they run at a 46% rate when leading by four points or more.
In addition, Dillon is the closer for the Packers. Dillon has had a team-high 49 rush attempts for a team-leading 190 rushing yards when they lead by four points or more. Further, he commands a larger percentage of the rush attempts when the lead grows to six points or more.
There’s another factor impacting my belief in Dillon surpassing 46.5 rushing yards, but I’ll save that for a forthcoming correlated pick. Finally, Bet Prep projects Dillon for 49.66 rushing yards, supporting my choice.
Aaron Jones UNDER 46.5 Rushing Yards
As I established above, Aaron Jones coughs up carries to Dillon when the Packers lead by more than a touchdown. Additionally, since returning from a one-game absence in Week 11 with a knee injury, he’s rushed only 28 times in four games, falling short of 46.5 rushing yards in back-to-back games before bucking the trend with 58 rushing yards last week.
As a result, in the last three games that Jones and Dillon have shared the backfield, Dillon has carried the ball 42 times, enhancing his case for making us winners for picking Dillon’s over I touted above.
Finally, there’s a sneaky reason for believing Jones will fall short of his yardage pick while Dillon will go over his. Receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and Randall Cobb is on the Injured Reserve. So, Green Bay’s receiving corps is thin. According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 8, when the Packers were without important receivers, Jones ran the fourth-most routes (25). Jones ran two routes from the slot, three inline and three aligned wide. So, he may be used as a receiver more often against the Browns.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL props? Check out our complete NFL Props Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Zach Ertz OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards
No matter how you slice it, Zach Ertz is primed to tear the Indianapolis Colts up. According to Pro Football Focus, in eight games on the Arizona Cardinals, Ertz has been second in routes (248), targets (48), receptions (34), and receiving yards (395).
Are you concerned about the games Kyler Murray missed skewing the data? Don’t sweat it. In five games with Murray, Ertz has been third in routes (155), targets (28), receptions (19), and receiving yards (234). Most recently, last week, with DeAndre Hopkins out (he’s out the rest of the regular season), Ertz was second on the Cardinals in routes (48), targets (11), receptions (six), and receiving yards (74), smashing his line of 44.5 receiving yards for this week.
Now, he has a mouthwatering matchup with the Colts. Last week, I touted Hunter Henry’s over, and he smashed Indy for 77 receiving yards. So, let’s go back to the well against a defense that coughs up a ton of yardage to tight ends. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts allow the most receiving yards (947) to tight ends. As a result, I’m drooling while submitting this pick.
