Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks: MNF Week 13 (Bills-Patriots)

Kevin Byard #31 of the Tennessee Titans tackles Jonnu Smith #81 of the New England Patriots in the first quarter at Gillette Stadium on November 28, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Image Credit: Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Monday Night Football contest between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots awards us one more chance to make some dough correctly selecting Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Week 13. First, however, if you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, have no fear.

It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:

  • Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
  • Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
  • Go to the Pick’em Games.
  • Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x
Use promo code PROPS for $10 free!

It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.

Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Monday Night Football of Week 13.

Nelson Agholor UNDER 23.5 Receiving Yards

Nelson Agholor #15 of the New England Patriots reacts after a play in the first half against the Dallas Cowboys at Gillette Stadium on October 17, 2021 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
Image Credit: Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images

Before diving into Nelson Agholor’s specific usage in New England’s offense, allow me to address the weather. According to The Weather Channel, winds will exceed 20 mph tonight. Therefore, the vertical passing game will be challenging.

Unfortunately, that’s bad news for Agholor. According to Pro Football Focus, Agholor has had a team-high average depth of target of 14.6 yards downfield this season. In addition, his field-stretching usage is a poor stylistic fit against Buffalo’s defense. According to Sharp Football Stats, Buffalo allows the lowest average explosive pass rate (5%).

Also, Agholor’s usage in the offense is dwindling. In New England’s previous four games, he has had only 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 81 receiving yards. As a result, he’s eclipsed 23.5 receiving yards only one time in his last four games. Thus, I don’t see things turning around for the veteran speedster this week. As a result, I’ll take him going under.

Jonnu Smith OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards

Jonnu Smith #81 of the New England Patriots warms up prior to their game against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium on November 7, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina
Image Credit: Lance King/Getty Images

Jonnu Smith’s usage in New England’s offense after signing a large contract in free agency has been baffling. However, this is a situation when Bill Belichick might scheme up targets for his yards-after-the-catch weapon. Unfortunately, he’s run only 19 routes the last two weeks. Still, he’s garnered six targets, securing four receptions for 66 yards.

Additionally, he has a shallow average depth of target of only 5.0 yards downfield in 2021. Further, according to Sports Info Solutions, he has done most of his damage after the catch with 8.6 yards after the catcher per reception (YAC/Rec), the second-most among players targeted at least 40 times this year. Also, according to Pro Football Focus, he has averaged 2.01 yards per route run (Y/RR). If Belichick cuts loose Smith more often tonight in seemingly the ideal situation to use him, the athletically gifted tight end should easily eclipse his yardage prop. Finally, Bet Prep supports the over, projecting Smith for 21.30 receiving yards.

Dawson Knox OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards

Dawson Knox #88 of the Buffalo Bills runs for a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at Highmark Stadium on October 03, 2021 in Orchard Park, New York.
Image Credit: Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images

Remarkably, surprise third-year breakout Dawson Knox might be the best tight end in this game, despite the Patriots shedding out substantial dough for Smith and Hunter Henry. Also, like Smith, Knox should theoretically benefit from the windy conditions and matchup against a defense stingy on explosive pass plays. New England allows the seventh-lowest average explosive pass rate (7%).

Meanwhile, Knox is another tight end in this contest that does damage after the catch. He has managed a stellar 6.1 YAC/Rec, 22nd among players targeted at least 40 times in 2021. In addition, Knox is an integral part of Buffalo’s offense, even after returning from surgery on his hand.

Since Week 10, he has run the second-most routes (91) for the Bills. Additionally, he has been second in targets (14) and third in receptions (10) and receiving yards (129) in the previous three weeks. In all, Knox has bested 30.5 receiving yards in six of nine games played this season. So understandably, Bet Prep expects him to best his yardage prop tonight, projecting him for 37.65 receiving yards.