Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
Props.com compared the top platforms to find that DraftKings Sportsbook has the most robust offerings for NBA Props. They also have a generous welcome offer for new members (see below).
With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Tuesday’s six-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Mar. 1.
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Washington Wizards: F Kyle Kuzma
The prop: 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (vs. Detroit)
The odds: Over -120/Under -110
Kuzma still doesn’t get much love in the player prop market despite some gaudy numbers of late. He’s taken over as the Wizards’ top offensive option following the injury to Bradley Beal and the trade of Spencer Dinwiddie. Keep in mind that newly-acquired Kristaps Porzingis is out with an injury as well.
Kuzma has increased his usage rate by +4.9%, his assist rate by +8.2%, and his rebound rate by +1.3% in seven games without Beal and Dinwiddie this season. Overall, he’s averaged 22.0 points, 9.7 boards, and 5.3 assists per 36 minutes in those contests.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Kuzma has been able to smash his current PRA prop lately. He’s racked up at least 47 in three of his past four games, and the lone exception was a blowout win where he played just 30.3 minutes.
Expect Kuzma to keep the good times rolling vs. the Pistons, who rank just 25th in defensive efficiency and dead last in rebound rate this season.
Boston Celtics: PF/C Al Horford
The prop: 16.5 points + rebounds (vs. Atlanta)
The odds: Over -120/Under -115
Horford rested in the Celtics’ last contest after logging nearly 37 minutes in his previous outing. He should be good to go for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Hawks, and it’s a good one for him, as Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive efficiency. As a result, the Celtics are implied for 117.0 points.
Horford’s minutes have been up-and-down this season, but the old-timer is still effective. He’s averaged 10.1 points and 7.6 boards over 28.5 minutes per game, and he’s been playing a bit more of late. Horford has racked up at least 31.8 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s averaged 12.7 points and 8.3 rebounds in those contests. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, this number is simply too low.
Atlanta Hawks: PF Danilo Gallinari
The prop: 13.5 points (at Boston)
The odds: Over +100/Under -125
Like Horford, Gallinari is another player who is still getting the job done at his advanced age. He’s just a few years away from the basketball retirement home, but the Hawks have leaned on him a bit heavier of late. He’s averaged 30.9 minutes over his past four games, and he’s eclipsed 32.8 minutes in two of them.
Gallinari’s increased production has coincided with John Collins’ injury, and Collins is doubtful for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Celtics. As long as Collins is out, Gallo should be able to hit the over on his current scoring prop. It’s an added bonus that DraftKings Sportsbook has the Over at +100.
Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry
The prop: 26.5 points (at Minnesota)
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
It’s been a weird year for Curry. He got out of the gates red hot, leading the Warriors to an 18-2 record and establishing himself as a massive favorite for the MVP. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to sustain that pace. He’s still shown flashes of brilliance, including a record-setting performance at the All-Star game, but he’s averaged just 23.0 points per game since the start of January.
However, Curry’s reduced numbers haven’t been entirely his fault. He’s also had to share the court with Klay Thompson for most of those contests, which has cut into his usage rate.
Thompson missed the Warriors’ last game, and he’s been ruled out once again due to an illness. That gives Curry a massive boost. Since Thompson returned to the lineup on January 9, Curry has increased his usage rate by +5.6% with his fellow Splash Brother off the court.
The result is an average of 27.7 points per 36 minutes, and he scored 27 points in his last game without Thompson. That was in a tough matchup vs. the Mavericks, and Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Timberwolves is much friendlier. They’ve played at the fourth-fastest pace in the league over their past 10 games, and they’re just 25th in defensive efficiency over that time frame.
Los Angeles Clippers: PG Reggie Jackson
The prop: 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (at Houston)
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
The Clippers have one of the best matchups of the day. They’re taking on the Rockets, who have been an over bettor’s dream for most of the year. They rank first in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency, which is an unbeatable combination.
Still, Jackson’s PRA prop feels high. He’s averaged just 16.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists this season, which puts him well under this current line. The only reason this line is so high is that Jackson exploded for 41 points + rebounds + assists in his last outing, but that game stands out as a clear outlier. He was below 31.5 PRA in each of his three previous contests, so this is the perfect time to sell high.
