Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing players and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
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With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Tuesday’s four-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of noon ET on Mar. 22.
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Orlando Magic: SG R.J. Hampton
The prop: 12.5 points + rebounds
The odds: Over -110/Under -125
The Magic are currently playing without Jalen Suggs, allowing Hampton to move into the starting lineup. He’s averaged 28.3 minutes per game over his past three contests, which represents a sizable increase from his average of 20.7 minutes per game this season.
The boost in playing time hasn’t necessarily resulted in increased production – he’s averaged just 7.3 points and 3.0 rebounds in those contests – but he has a ton of room for improvement as a scorer. He’s shot just 34.6% from the field and 16.7% from 3-point range over that stretch. With some better shooting efficiency, hitting the Over on 12.5 points + rebounds is very reasonable.
Golden State Warriors: SG Klay Thompson
The prop: 2.5 assists
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
The Warriors suffered a defeat in their first contest without Steph Curry, a two-point home loss to the lowly Spurs. However, their offense was still reasonably productive, posting a 114.4 Offensive Rating in that contest.
Thompson was also asked to step into a much larger role. He racked up 38.3 minutes, which was easily his highest mark of the year. However, Thompson didn’t do much as a distributor. He finished with zero assists, and NBA.com credited him with just one potential assist. Do you know how hard it is to play more than 38 minutes and rack up one potential assist? That’s so bad that it’s actually quite impressive.
Thompson has never been known for his passing ability, but there are reasons to believe in a better result on Tuesday. For starters, Thompson has increased his assist rate by +1.9% with Curry off the floor this season. That number was higher before Sunday’s debacle, but Thompson has still averaged 3.5 assists per 36 minutes with Curry off the floor. If he’s going to continue to play 36+ minutes, this number is simply too low.
Milwaukee Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday
The prop: 18.5 points
The odds: Over -115/Under -110
The Bucks have been on a roll recently, winning eight of their past 10 games, but they did hit a speed bump in their last outing. Not only did they lose to the red-hot Timberwolves, but second-leading scorer Khris Middleton injured his left wrist and has been ruled out for Tuesday’s contest against the Bulls.
With Middleton out, expect Holiday to take on a much larger role with the Bucks on offense. He’s seen a team-high plu-5.4 percent usage-rate bump with Middleton off the court this season, resulting in an average of 23.6 points per 36 minutes. Holiday is also averaging 19.2 points in nine full games without Middleton.
When looking at the eight teams on the NBA hardwood Tuesday, the Bucks have the highest projected team total at 120.5 points. So this seems like the perfect spot to roll with Uncle Jrue.
Los Angeles Clippers: PG Reggie Jackson
The prop: 6.5 assists
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
We’ve been on all overs so far, so let’s sprinkle in an under with Jackson. The Clippers are coming off a bizarre outing in their last contest. They fell into a massive hole vs. the Jazz, and they trailed by a whopping 37 points at halftime. Coach Ty Lue decided to pull the plug early, so Jackson, Marcus Morris, and Nicolas Batum didn’t play in the second half. Overall, all three starters logged less than 15 minutes for the entire game.
I’m not expecting a repeat performance on Tuesday, but the Clippers are in another tough spot vs. the Nuggets. This game should be played at a snail’s pace, with both of these teams ranking in the bottom 10 in pace over their past 10 games. The Clippers are also implied for just 107.75 points, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Jackson has also been much more of a scoring guard than a distributor this season. He’s averaged just 4.8 assists per game, and he’s hit the under on 6.5 assists in 51 of his 68 contests. Getting the under at just -120 is an excellent value.
Chicago Bulls: G Alex Caruso
The prop: 16.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -115/Under -115
Caruso developed a cult-like following during his tenure with the Lakers. He was never a particularly important part of their rotation, but fans loved his hustle, his dunks, and the fact that he looked like someone who should be playing at LA Fitness instead of the NBA.
Caruso made the transition to Chicago during the offseason, and he’s been a vital role player for the Bulls. He’s averaging a career-high 27.7 minutes per game, and he’s coming off 32.6 minutes in his last outing. Caruso is capable of contributing in every category across the board, which makes taking a PRA prop particularly appealing. He’s averaged 10.5 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, so expect him to find a way to contribute vs. the Bucks.
The Bucks also represent a strong matchup. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league over their past 10 games, so the Bulls should get a few more possessions than usual.
