Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
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With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Thursday’s seven-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of 12 p.m. ET on Mar. 3.
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Chicago Bulls: SG Zach LaVine
The prop: 22.5 points (at Hawks)
The odds: Over -110/Under -115
LaVine has taken a backseat to DeMar DeRozan recently, who is having a historically good season for the Bulls. That said, LaVine is having a strong year in his own right. He’s averaging 24.5 points per game while shooting 48.1% from the field, 39.8% from three-point range, and 87.0% from the free-throw line. Not many players can combine that kind of efficiency and scoring volume.
LaVine is coming off 22 points in his last outing, but he was limited to just 32.8 minutes in a blowout loss. He should see a few additional minutes on Thursday in a strong matchup vs. the Hawks. They rank just 26th in defensive efficiency, and this game features a robust 232.5-point total. I’m willing to bet on some positive regression with LaVine’s scoring over.
Memphis Grizzlies: PG Ja Morant
The prop: 5.5 assists (at Celtics)
The odds: Over -130/Under -105
What else can Morant do at this point? He has dominated the league this season, racking up eye-popping highlights and wins for the Grizzlies. They’re just 0.5-games behind the Warriors for the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference after finishing just 33-49 last year. That’s a remarkable transformation in such a short time frame.
Morant has done more of his damage as a scorer than a distributor recently. He set a new career-high with 46 points two games ago, and then he upped it to 52 in his last outing. Still, Morant is a capable passer, and this line provides us with a nice buy-low opportunity. He’s averaged 6.6 assists per game this season, and he’s handed out at least six dimes in 35 of 49 games. With that in mind, -130 on the over is an absolute steal.
Golden State Warriors: PG Stephen Curry
The prop: 3.5 made three-pointers (at Mavericks)
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
Curry came out of the gates red hot this season, but he’s actually had a subpar shooting season by his lofty standards. He’s made “only” 37.5% of his three-point attempts, which puts him on pace to finish below 41.1% for the first full season in his career.
Still, setting Curry’s three-point prop at just 3.5 is blatant disrespect for the greatest shooter of all time. Even in a down year, he’s still making an average of 4.6 three-pointers per game. He drilled five triples in his last outing, and he’s made at least four three-pointers in 38 of 57 games. The Mavericks are a tough matchup – they’ve allowed the fifth-lowest frequency of three-point attempts this season – but this line is simply too low.
Dallas Mavericks: PG Jalen Brunson
The prop: 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (vs. Warriors)
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
The Mavericks have quietly been on a roll recently. They’ve won eight of their past 10 games, and they’ve covered in five straight. Their decision to move oft-injured but talented big man Kristaps Porzingis before the deadline was a shocker, but it appears to have paid dividends.
Brunson has been a big part of the team’s success this season. The second-round pick out of Villanova has blossomed into a quality role player as a member of the starting unit. He’s averaged 16.1 points, 5.3 assists, and 3.7 rebounds per game, all of which represent new career-bests.
Brunson has hit the under on this prop in two of his past three games, but he has still displayed the ability to hit the over frequently. He’s done just that in eight of his past 11 games, so I have no problem backing him against the Warriors.
Los Angeles Clippers: PG Reggie Jackson
The prop: 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (vs. LA Lakers)
The odds: Over -125/Under -110
This Clippers team is weird. They have been decimated by injuries, playing most of the year without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, yet they continue to win ball games. They’ve won six of their past seven, albeit against a relatively weak schedule.
Jackson has taken over as one of the team’s top offensive options given all their absences, but this number still seems a bit high. He’s hit the under on 29.5 points + rebounds + assists in three of his past four games, including his last game vs. the Lakers. This game also features the third-lowest total on the slate, so points figure to be at a premium.
