Super Bowl props are now filling odds boards at sportsbooks from coast to coast in advance of Sunday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Throughout the week leading up to Super Bowl 56 in Inglewood, California, Props.com will offer up our five favorite Super Bowl props for each teams’ skill position group on offense, as well as our top five defensive, kicker/punter, and special teams props. We’ll also break down five game-specific props; best bets for player to score the first touchdown; and even our favorite cross-sport props.
Yes, consider us your one-stop prop shop for Rams vs. Bengals. So be sure to check back all week for comprehensive and (we hope!) compelling Super Bowl 56 betting coverage.
Next up: Our top five Super Bowl props involving Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and updated as of 9 a.m. ET on Feb. 8.
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Rushing Yards
The prop: 62.5 Rushing Yards
The odds: Under -115/Over -115
Mixon is a talented running back, but the Rams certainly have a formidable run defense. Perhaps that’s underselling it? The Rams rank fifth-best in opponents’ rushing yards per game (95.8) and fourth-best in yards per carry allowed (3.9). Having defensive tackle/brick wall Aaron Donald clogging up the middle doesn’t hurt.
Mixon has cruised past this 62.5 rushing yard threshold in 10 of 19 games this season, which includes three playoff contests. However, he has covered the mark only four times in his last 11 games as an underdog. (The Bengals remain a consensus 4.5-point pup in Super Bowl 56.)
It’s also worth noting that Mixon hasn’t been producing yards in big chunks lately — he’s amassed 63 or more rushing yards in just two of his last eight outings. It’s tough to believe in the Over on this Super Bowl prop with potential game flow working against him, as well as the discouraging matchup versus the Rams’ stout defensive front.
Receiving Yards
The prop: 25.5 Receiving Yards
The odds: Over -120/Under -110
Mixon doesn’t hold a candle to the Christian McCaffrey-like receiving backs in the NFL right now. However, he can certainly get the job done in that area. The former Oklahoma star’s 2017 draft profile listed him as a superb receiving prospect who also has the size and power to run between the tackles. The Bengals usual lean on him for the latter, but Mixon has impressed as a pass-catching back down the stretch and into the playoffs.
In fact, this receiving yardage prop carries more intrigue than Mixon’s aforementioned rushing line. The Cincinnati running back has gained 26 or more receiving yards in each of his last five games. That includes all three playoff matchups, during which he’s averaging 43.2 receiving yards per outing.
Let’s expand on this recent five-game run: Mixon is averaging 5.8 targets, 5.2 receptions, and 43.2 receiving yards. That latter figure is noteworthy, as it’s nearly twice as many receiving yards as Mixon averaged through 16 regular-season contests. In fact, Mixon crossed the 25.5 threshold just three times in his first 11 games.
So clearly, Mixon is seeing more volume through the air of late. The question is: Will that trend continue in the Super Bowl? Well, if the Bengals find themselves trailing in the second half, Mixon could easily see his usual five or six targets. From there, it’s not hard to believe he can cross this prop number.
Rushing Attempts
The prop: 16.5 Attempts
The odds: Over -105/Under -125
Obviously, this prop is directly correlated to Mixon’s rushing yards. It’s also heavily tied to game flow, which could feed the Under here. That’s probably why there’s a little extra juice (-125) on that side.
But does that lean to the Under make sense? After all, Mixon has had more than 16.5 rushing attempts in eight of his last 10 games. Contrary to logical thought, he has crossed that threshold in seven of his last 11 outings when Cincinnati checked in as an underdog.
We all know that Mixon is the only legitimate running back in Cincinnati’s stable. Case in point: Bengals’ backup RB Samaje Perine has just one postseason carry. Also, it’s not like Cincinnati will try to preserve Mixon in the last game of the year.
Take those realities and add in the fact Mixon’s rushing totals appear immune to game flow, and Over 16.5 attempts definitely has some appeal — especially at the reduced -105 odds.
Longest Rush
The prop: 13.5 Yards
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
This is another interesting prop where Mixon defies logic. Then again, Cincinnati’s presence in Super Bowl 56 suspends reality itself.
Are you ready to have your mind blown? The Bengals have faced a top 10 rushing defense (in terms of yard per carry allowed) six times this season. How often has Mixon’s longest rush exceeded 13.5 yards in those games? Believe it or not, five times. Sorcery!
That doesn’t imply the Over on this prop is a cakewalk. But it seems like Mixon is not deterred by top-tier rushing defenses.
Looking back over the entire season, Mixon has notched a run of 14-plus yards in 11 of 19 outings this season, including three of the last five and two of the Bengals’ three playoff contests.
On the flip side, though, the Rams have not allowed an opposing running back to hit this mark in any of their last four games. In other words, something’s gotta give here.
Receptions
The prop: 3.5 Receptions
The odds: Over -145/Under +110
As mentioned above, Mixon has gotten more involved in the passing game down the stretch this season. Again, he’s averaging 5.8 targets and 5.2 receptions over his last five games, securing at least four receptions in four of those contests.
Given the success of this recipe, it makes sense to presume that more of the same will be on tap for Super Bowl 56. After all, the Rams rank in the middle of the pack in terms of receptions and receiving yardage allowed to running backs. Los Angeles has given up 85 catches to players out of the backfield this season (14th most in NFL) and 631 yards (17th most).
Now you know why there’s significant juice to the Over on this prop. And based on the stats and Mixon’s recent form, it appears to be juice worth laying.
Coming later Tuesday: Top five Super Bowl props for Los Angeles Rams running backs.
