As we get closer to the NFL season, it’s time to take a look at how some of the quarterbacks will perform this season. More specifically, we’ll take a look at the NFL season-long passing yard prop bets listed at FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks.
The expectations are high for several quarterbacks, especially for those coming off impressive 2021 campaigns. However, numerous signal-callers are dealing with changes in personnel and coaching, which ultimately changes their outlook. The dreaded injury bug always looms as well.
With that, let’s check out some of the best season-long passing yard prop bets for 2022.
Top NFL Season-Long Passing Yard Prop Bets
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady Over 4520.5 Passing Yards
At 44 years old, Tom Brady had a career-high in passing attempts (719), completions (485), and passing yards (5,316) last season. These numbers also led the league, but you shouldn’t hang your hat on a straight copy/paste of those numbers in 2022.
His receiving corps will look different this year, especially at the start of the season. The Bucs will not have Rob Gronkowski (retirement), and Chris Godwin is still recovering from a torn ACL. Godwin should return by the second half of the season, but Brady still has Mike Evans as his primary target. The signing of Russell Gage doesn’t hurt either. When all three of these receivers are on the field, the passing game will be one of the best in the league.
Leonard Fournette will return as the lead back. Although Ronald Jones is no longer with the team, Tampa drafted Rachaad White to fill the void. Both are dual backs as Fournette had 69 receptions last year and White had 43 with Arizona State last season. With plenty of receiving options, we should not see any regression with Brady’s passing numbers.
Where To Bet: Tom Brady Over 4520.5 passing yards | -112 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers Under 4050.5 Passing Yards
After 2021 was filled with tension between Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, he decided to come back instead of asking for a trade. How did Green Bay reward him? They traded away his best receiver, Davante Adams. Not only that, but Green Bay didn’t take a high-end receiver in the 2022 draft to fill the void.
This will undoubtedly be the shakiest receiving corps Aaron Rodgers has seen. The unproven likes of Allen Lazard stands in as a primary receiver, and rookie Christian Watson is next in line.
This could be why the Packers kept Aaron Jones and AJ Dillion in the backfield. Both are impactful running backs, and over the last couple of years, both have gained equal opportunity. Head coach Matt LaFleur will continue to use them both in the offense, maybe even more than usual this year.
Where To Bet: Aaron Rodgers Under 4050.5 passing yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Colts QB Matt Ryan Under 3900.5 Passing Yards
Matt Ryan will start his venture with the Indianapolis Colts and legitimately compete for a title. That may sound strange, but Indianapolis has a legitimate path through the AFC South.
We’ve seen Ryan put up inflated numbers over the last couple of years due to a lacking run game in Atlanta. The Falcons usually played from behind as well, needing Ryan to throw the ball to try and overcome a deficit.
As a member of the Colts, ‘Matty Ice’ has arguably the best running back in the league with Jonathan Taylor. Indianapolis has a solid defense to boot, as the Colts ranked 11th in points per game allowed last season.
Look for the Colts to play ball control and utilize Ryan as more of a game manager than anything else. That bodes well for the Under.
Where To Bet: Matt Ryan Under 3900.5 passing yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa Under 3950.5 Passing Yards
The Dolphins made significant changes in the offseason, as they are looking to make a push in the AFC East. Tagovailoa is looking to take a step forward as well, and gaining speedster WR Tyreek Hill will certainly help on that front. However, let’s pump the brakes before we run to bet Tua to beat this yardage number.
New Miami head coach Mike McDaniel likes to go run-heavy, and he even likes to give his wide receivers a handful of rushing attempts (i.e. Deebo Samuel). Miami also signed RB Chase Edmonds to help execute that run-first strategy. McDaniel’s former San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert will pitch in as well.
Sure, Tagovailoa has the weapons to come close to this passing yard prop, but he may not see enough attempts to get over the hump. Of course, the injury bug always looms.
Where To Bet: Tua Tagovailoa 3950.5 passing yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
