I recently broke down my Top NFL Season-Long Receiving Yard Prop Bets for the 2022 season. Although these are fun bets to make, they don’t quite have the same value that you can get betting on a specific player to lead the league in receiving yards.
Below, you’ll find four players that I believe have the potential to lead the NFL in receiving yards this season.
NFL Receiving Leader Predictions: Best Bets
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (+900)
Jefferson’s the chalk and for good reason. He led the NFL in air yards (2,071) last season while ranking second in receiving yards (1,616). Receivers need to find the opportunity if they want to lead the NFL in receiving yards, and he saw the fourth-most targets (167) in the league last season.
The Minnesota Vikings weren’t a ridiculous pass-happy offense, though. They ranked 11th in pass attempts (604) in 2021. Kevin O’Connell is coming over from the Los Angeles Rams as their new head coach, and he helped Cooper Kupp lead the NFL in receiving yards last season.
The Vikings’ offense should become more efficient under O’Connell, and Jefferson will be the biggest beneficiary of anyone on the team.
Where to bet: Justin Jefferson | +900 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (+5000)
If you read my season-long receiving yards prop bet article, you know how much I love Sutton this season. He’ll see a massive quarterback upgrade with Russell Wilson, and I’m expecting new head coach Nathaniel Hackett to open up the playbook a bit more.
Sutton ranked second in the NFL in aDOT (15.4) last season, and we’ve consistently seen Wilson attack down the field. Tyler Lockett quietly ranked ninth in receiving yards last season, and I’m expecting Sutton to take a step forward in 2022. Because of that, he’s worth a look at +5,000 odds.
Where to bet: Cortland Sutton | +5000 at FanDuel Sportsbook
NFL Receiving Leader Predictions: Sleepers
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (+10,000)
The Baltimore Ravens are generally seen as a run-heavy offense, which is true, but they also ranked ninth in pass attempts (611) in 2021. They feature a very condensed offense with Mark Anderson and Marquise Brown seeing around 150 targets and over 1,000 yards each.
Baltimore traded Brown, leaving the door open for Bateman to step into the WR1 role. He saw similar numbers to Brown last season, recording 0.1 more yards per reception and a roughly 5% better catch rate.
Bateman could be the next first-round receiver to take a giant leap forward, as he should slot into Brown’s role immediately. He could rank in the top-10 of the NFL in targets, and we’re getting great odds on that type of opportunity.
Where to bet: Rashod Bateman | +10,000 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Chiefs WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (+13,000)
This is an efficient market, but how are DraftKings and FanDuel so far off here? Valdes-Scantling owns +6000 odds on FanDuel and better than double those odds are available on DraftKings.
The Kansas City Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill, and they gave Valdes-Scantling a sizeable contract. Hill ranked seventh in the NFL in targets (159) and receiving yards (1,239) last season. Someone will have to step up for Kansas City, and Valdes-Scantling is the most interesting option for his price tag.
He’s a player known for his speed, but there were a few rave reviews about his progression in overall route running before leaving Green Bay. If Valdes-Scantling can command any reasonable type of target share, he comes with tremendous potential in the Kansas City offense.
This is a long shot, but it’s why we’re getting +10,000 odds on it.
Where to bet: Marquez Valdes-Scantling | +10,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook
