Our NFL prop bet series turns to Jameis Winston in his Week 4 matchup against the Giants. Will Winston throw an interception?
Winston is one of the most turnover-prone players in the NFL, and he has shown a few issues in his new role this year. Jameis is known as a gunslinger who throws interceptions left and right. This seemed to be something that could be fixed in New Orleans, a team that was led to great seasons by anti-gunslinger Drew Brees. We also heard a lot about his new eyes after Lasik eye surgery was hypothesized to help his turnover issues.
So what’s the bottom line here? Are Winston’s turnover issues behind him? We’ll break down this NFL prop bet below.
The New Situation
We have seen Jameis play 3 games in his new role and it has been a rollercoaster. This isn’t just any rollercoaster either. It’s the one that the whole park is built around, the one that you have to sign a waiver to ride.
Winston started the season with one of the weirdest stat lines in recent QB memory when he had 5 TD passes on 20 attempts and just 148 yards. He followed this up with a brutal start that included 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 4 sacks, and just 111 yards. Last week was the middle of these two games, but 128 yards passing in a 2 score win is a bit concerning long-term.
The Matchup
The Giants have only snagged one interception this year in the Thursday night game vs. the Football Team in week 2. I think that the personnel and scheme of the Giants would make me think that this team will be below average when it comes to getting interceptions. That being said, I can’t say that the defensive matchup is a huge deal here.
I do think that the team matchup is an elite one for Jameis for a few reasons. The Saints defensive line is very, very good and the Giants O-line isn’t great. While they were able to deal with the Football Team pressure in a tough spot, I’d still bet on the Saints’ defense in this matchup.
Why does that matter? I think that we have seen the Saints game plan with Jameis and it is clear they don’t want to air it out constantly with pass attempts of 20, 22, and 21 to begin the season. These are low numbers even for the most conservative offenses, but I think that we can confidently expect him not to return to the 40 attempt gunslinger he used to be.
The NFL Prop Bet
I like the UNDER here for Jameis at +118.
While I think there could be a pass or two that makes your heart skips a beat, this team should be in a low-scoring game and they simply don’t want to throw the ball downfield. I think we can escape this game with low-risk and low-pass attempts Jamies keeping the ball safe in a win.
