One of my NFL betting strategies the past few weeks has been to target the Ravens secondary.
They have let up chunk plays on a weekly basis and have injuries that have made the problem even more pronounced.
Well, we head right back to them in Week 15; keep an eye on the Green Bay Packers offense when planning your NFL bets this weekend.
Let me explain why.
Baltimore’s Secondary
The Ravens’ defensive woes reached a dire straight when they lost their best corner, Marlon Humphrey, for the year.
It’s amazing they were already vulnerable, but this absence only exacerbates the issue.
No team in the NFL has let up more 20-yard passes than Baltimore, with 56 allowed this season. The team also ranks 30th in the opponent’s yards per pass attempt, suggesting a defense that lets up big plays through the air on a consistent basis.
Baltimore has been extremely generous for the receivers on the other end, and it’s there where I recommend starting your bets.
Not their total yards, no, but their long reception props.
Ten of the last 12 receivers to face Baltimore have hit their ‘Long Reception’ prop, typically available on DraftKings.
Last week it was Donovan Peoples-Jones of the Browns who stacked a strong game against this defense:
3 catches, 73 yards for Donovan Peoples-Jones at the half against Baltimore's short-handed secondary.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 12, 2021
One play down the field is all it takes to hit this prop, and there are some great options to consider on Green Bay.
Green Bay Offensive Options
There’s really no place to start other than with Davante Adams, Aaron Rodgers’ top weapon.
.@AaronRodgers12 to @tae15adams for the DEEP TD! 🙌 #ProBowlVote | #CHIvsGB | #GoPackGo
📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/OjQZn1hHvG
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 13, 2021
Adams has at least one 20+ yard catch in all but one game this season, leading Green Bay in big plays by a sizable margin. Adams has hit his long reception prop in 10 of 12 games this season and is a good bet to do so again on Sunday.
If you want another vertical threat who should see a lower line, consider Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
MVS had a quiet game in Week 14 but leads the Packers in average depth of the target, which quantifies how far down the field you are when you get targeted.
MVS had hit his long reception prop in three straight games prior to last week and is a good bet for a bounce-back effort.
No matter who you choose, know that trends are on your side against this Baltimore secondary.
Good luck in Week 15! For more on the NFL, be sure to follow me on Twitter, @griffybets.