Our NFL Prop Angles series takes a look at one of the worst quarterbacks from the past two seasons: Carson Wentz, who is now the starter for Indianapolis.
The Colts have started 0-3, albeit against three playoff teams from last year (Seahawks, Rams, Titans). Despite the quality of opponents, it’s noteworthy how much the team has struggled, particularly on offense.
Wentz is certainly one person to blame, and his offensive line has been one of the league’s worst through three weeks.
There are three reasons Carson Wentz will go under the 243.5 passing yards his prop is set at: the defense on the other end, his slipping production, and BetPrep trends.
NFL Prop Angles: Negative Trends
The first and most important sign of an impending under is when a player’s BetPrep page is littered with negative trends like Wentz’s is this week.
Here’s a sampling of the trends that suggest a low yardage total for Week 4:
- Passed for 244+ yards in 2 of his last 12 (16.67%) games when he threw at least 30 times last game.
- Passed for 244+ yards in 3 of his last 14 (21.43%) games when he completed at least 10 passes last game.
- Passed for 244+ yards in 2 of his last 8 (25%) games when he completed at least 0.2% of his passes last game.
- Passed for 244+ yards in 3 of his last 14 (21.43%) games when he threw for at least 100 pass yards last game.
These trends speak to how poorly Wentz has been playing the last few seasons, barely exceeding 244 passing yards in over a quarter of the games played since the beginning of 2020.
Production Tailing Downwards
It’s clear from the trends above that Wentz is not playing well, but even in his three games this season, we’ve watched his statistics decrease, and there isn’t much reason to believe it’s going to turn around.
His passing yards have gone from 251 to 247 to 194, while his completion percentage has gone from 65.8 to 64.5 to 51.4.
Last week was the worst performance yet, likely attributed to the two sprained ankles he’s currently playing through.
Opponents Aren’t Getting Easier
The Colts play the Dolphins this coming week, their fourth straight double-digit win team from last year. Miami doesn’t seem to be as strong as they were in 2020, but the one strength worth noting is their pass defense, a top-ten unit by most traditional metrics.
Meanwhile, the Colts’ passing offense ranks as a bottom-five unit, a huge disparity in quality of play.
With a tough opponent on a hand, led by star corner Xavien Howard, it’s hard to foresee a lot of success through the air for Wentz and Indianapolis.
Bet his under this weekend with confidence.
