Iowa State will face off against Iowa in the battle for the state. After plenty of success in past seasons, neither of these teams are ranked at the moment. They’re both looking to find their second win of the season, though.
Iowa State and Iowa both started their seasons out with cupcake matchups. The Cyclones easily defeated Southeast Missouri State 42-10 behind the arm of Hunter Dekkers. Iowa wasn’t quite as lucky, as they beat South Dakota State 7-3 in a tough matchup.
In this article, I’ll break down the odds for this game and you’ll find my favorite Iowa State vs. Iowa predictions.
Iowa State vs. Iowa Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State | +3.5 (-105) | +155 | O 40.0 (-110) |
| @ Iowa | -3.5 (-115) | -180 | U 40.0 (-110) |
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook as of 4:30 p.m. on Sep. 7.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
- Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Kinnick Stadium – Iowa City, IA
- TV: BTN
Iowa State vs. Iowa Trends
Let’s take a look at some relevant betting trends for Iowa State vs. Iowa:
- Iowa State struggled with a 5-8 ATS record in 2021.
- Iowa recorded a 7-4-1 ATS record last season.
- Neither of these teams covered the spread in their only game this season.
- As of Wednesday afternoon, 73% of the bets and 78% of the handle were on Iowa State +3.5 spread.
- DraftKings also reports that 78% of the bets and 84% of the handle is on under 40 points.
- Iowa State found the under in 53.9% of their games in 2021.
- Iowa hit the under in 57.1% of their contests last season.
Iowa’s Offensive Struggles
Iowa’s offense looks terrible at the moment. They failed to score any touchdowns with only a field goal against South Dakota State last week.
Leshon Williams took over as the workhorse running back for Iowa this season. He struggled in limited snaps in 2021, and he recorded only 3.0 yards per carry in Week 1. He’s far off from former RB Tyler Goodson, who was the workhorse last season. Williams is also more inefficient than Gavin Williams and Ivory Kelly-Martin, who saw more carries than him in 2021.
Of Brian Ferentz's 62 games as Iowa's OC, the yards-per-play output vs. South Dakota State (2.7) ranks 61st.
The Hawkeyes' offense is a punch line. They've got to punch back ASAP, or Saturday will get real surly at Kinnick.https://t.co/CD7rTg0aGv
— Chad Leistikow (@ChadLeistikow) September 7, 2022
If Iowa can’t lean on their run game, Spencer Petras could struggle more than last season. He wasn’t overly efficient, and he posted only 10 passing touchdowns compared to 9 interceptions. He completed less than 50% of his passes for 109 yards and an interception last week.
This offense relies heavily on the run, and Williams doesn’t truly look to have the skillset needed for a successful workhorse running back. If he struggles to find success, Iowa will continue to struggle to score the ball.
Cyclones’ Three-Headed Monster
Iowa State has a three-headed monster this season. Xavier Hutchinson led the team in receiving last season, and he picked up where he left off in his first game in 2022. He recorded 8 receptions for 128 yards and 3 touchdowns.
QB Hunter Dekkers and RB Jirehl Brock are taking over for Brock Purdy and Breece Hall respectively, who are now playing in the NFL. These were two elite players, and Dekkers and Brock flashed at times in limited snaps last season.
He stopped on a dime and sent him FLYING 😳 @BrockJirehl pic.twitter.com/zCz7wNS3wY
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 6, 2022
Dekkers was a 4-star recruit coming out of high school. He threw for 293 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in Week 1. He only recorded three carries for 11 yards last week, but he wasn’t needed in the run game.
Brock handled that, carrying the ball 16 times for 104 yards and a touchdown. This is a relatively dynamic duo in the Iowa State backfield, although we need to take their Week 1 success with a grain of salt, as they failed to cover the spread.
Iowa State vs. Iowa Predictions
I don’t believe Iowa’s offense is nearly as bad as they played last week. They’re going to pop off against teams that struggle to defend the run. I don’t expect Williams to completely take over as a high-end workhorse running back. This will be more of a committee approach.
Iowa State isn’t expected to be one of the best run defenses in the NCAA, but it should be reasonable in that regard. The Cyclones will load the box and force Iowa to beat them through the air.
On the other side, I do believe Iowa has an elite defensive unit once again. They held a bad team to only three points last week, but they are likely to be able to slow down some of the better offenses in college football.
Both of these teams should lean on the run, keeping the clock going. I’m expecting a defensive battle here.
Pick: Under 40 | -110 at Tipico Sportsbook
