The Eagles and Packers close Sunday with an NFC battle. Green Bay has played respectably lately, and Philadelphia hasn’t been in top form. So, the Packers might not have to abandon the run, despite being a 6.5-point underdog. However, a safety blanket option should be busy when they do take to the air. On the other side, big plays should be there through the air for Philadelphia’s passing attack.
Eagles vs. Packers Player Props: SNF Week 12
For a full list of Eagles vs. Packers player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Aaron Jones Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Packers want to establish the run. According to numberFire, the Packers have attempted 24 passes and 42 rushes in neutral game scripts since Week 10. In addition, Aaron Jones has handled 28 of the carries in neutral game scripts for a blistering 151 rushing yards in the past two weeks.
A butt-whooping offensive line clears Jones’ path. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in Adjusted Line Yards (4.87). Jones hasn’t been consistent and has been a boom-or-bust producer. Nonetheless, he’s rushed for more than 130 yards in two of the last four weeks.
The matchup is ideal for Jones having one of his boom games. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles are 25th in rush defense DVOA in their past three games without run-stuffing rookie Jordan Davis. The Eagles were more stout in the middle in Week 11 than in Week 9 and Week 10. So, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph made their presences felt immediately after signing last week. Regardless, the duo is probably not yet ready for a full workload. Thus, I love Jones’ odds of rushing for more than 55.5 yards this week.
Where to bet: Aaron Jones Over 55.5 Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Randall Cobb Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Philadelphia’s pass defense is a top-shelf unit. The Eagles are third in pass defense DVOA. In addition, they’ve locked down deep passes. Per numberFire, Philly’s defense has allowed only 23 completions on 63 pass attempts (36.5%) that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 543 yards, one touchdown, and eight interceptions.
Therefore, Aaron Rodgers is best served to take what’s available underneath. Randall Cobb is Rodgers’ best option in a quick-hitting passing attack. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Cobb has a 10.6-yard average depth of target (aDOT) this year, much shallower than Allen Lazard’s 13.2-yard and Christian Watson’s 13.2-yard aDOT.
Cobb has also played at a high level in his last two games in which he didn’t exit with an injury early. The veteran wideout had seven receptions for 99 yards in Week 5 and six for 73 in Week 11. Cobb was targeted 19 times in those two games, per Pro-Football-Reference. PFF credited him with 17 targets in those games, but even their lower figure amounts to a jaw-dropping 30.9% target per route run rate. As a result, I’m delighted to bet Cobb exceeds 31.5 receiving yards against the Eagles.
Where to bet: Randall Cobb Over 31.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jalen Hurts Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards (-110)
While I lauded Philadelphia’s stinginess against deep passes, the Packers have been cooked deep. Green Bay has allowed nine completions for at least 38 yards this year. The completions were spread across six of 11 contests, including coughing up three to Ryan Tannehill last week in Green Bay’s second game without stud pass-rusher Rashan Gary. The Packers have also allowed 29 completions on 50 passes that traveled at least 15 Air Yards against them for 878 yards.
Philadelphia’s offensive tendencies and Jalen Hurts’ deep-ball prowess are also encouraging factors for this wager. The Eagles have attempted 85 passes, 25 rushes by Hurts, and 42 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since their bye in Week 7.
Hurts has nine passes this year that have gained at least 38 yards, accomplishing the feat in Week 1, 2, 3, 8, and 10. Therefore, he’s completed a pass for at least 38 yards in half of his contests this year. Since the Packers are lousy at defending vertical passes, I dig Hurts’ odds of completing a pass for more than 37.5 yards.
Where to bet: Jalen Hurts Longest Completion Over 37.5 Yards | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
More SNF Bets
Eagles vs Packers Predictions & Bets Bets: Sunday Night Football Picks (Week 12)