The Cleveland Browns play host to the Houston Texans this week after a heartbreaking loss to the Kansas City Chiefs after leading for most of the game. While the loss was a bit disappointing, I think that the takeaway is that the Browns are here to stay as a true contender after going head to head with the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Texans pulled off a mild upset with a huge win over the Jacksonville Jaguars that has people questioning the Jags and maybe rethinking the Texans a bit. Let’s find some player props in this game to take advantage of based on what we saw in week 1.
Nick Chubb OVER 94.5 Rushing Yards
Chubb is the clear RB1 in this offense, especially in a game like this one where the Browns are 13 point favorites against one of the worst teams in the league. Chubb got 15 carries against the Chiefs in limited offensive snaps and 83 yards on the ground. Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the NFL, and this offense should put this on display this week specifically.
Chubb has run for over 95 yards in 6 of the last eight games that the Browns were favored in. Never mind the fact that the Browns will be massive favorites and likely won’t even need to get the lead before calling plays like they are in the lead. The Browns will know that they are supposed to win this game, and I expect Chubb to get a bunch of efficient carries because of it.
David Njoku OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
David Njoku was an elite athlete coming out of the draft process, but Njoku has really never given us the consistent snap/target upside throughout his career. Not to overreact to week one, but I think that Njoku could be one of the biggest surprises of the tight end position this year.
Njoku was assumed to be the backup to Austin Hooper, just like he was last season, and is according to their contracts. Maybe this is not the case.
When we look to identify what is real and what is not, we want to think about what odd things could potentially make sense, and this Njoku usage makes some sense to me.
Njoku is an elite athlete and someone that can be used more and more when the team isn’t going to ask the tight ends to block as much. Hooper is the better blocker, but Njoku is the more explosive athlete, and the Browns may be leaning into this concept.
In week 1, Njoku had five targets and ran more routes than Hooper. If this continues, this won’t be the last Njoku over I like this season.
