Celtics vs Heat Props: Take The Value With Kyle Lowry’s Assists

Miami Heat guard Kyle Lowry (7) dribbles the ball against the Philadelphia 76ers during the first quarter in game three of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Wells Fargo Center.
Image Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Wednesday features Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals, and we have four Heat vs Celtics props teed up for this matchup.

The Celtics were able to tie the series at two games apiece with their win in Game 4, setting up a highly important contest in Game 5. Teams that win Game 5 of a tied series have historically advanced at a greater than 82 percent clip, so whoever wins Game 5 will be in a prime position to make it to the NBA Finals. The Heat will have the benefit of being back at home, but the Celtics are currently listed as two-point road favorites.

Let’s dive into our top Heat vs Celtics props for Game 5, featuring three Heat player props and one Celtic player props.

Odds via DraftKings and updated as of 12 p.m. ET on May 25.

Boston Celtics Player Prop

Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics reacts after scoring during the first quarter of an NBA game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center on January 29, 2022 in New Orleans, Louisiana
Image Credit: Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Forward Jayson Tatum

The prop: 6.5 rebounds
The odds: Over +120/Under -155

The Over on Tatum’s rebound prop has been a staple of these pieces during the postseason. It’s typically available at better than even money despite him averaging 8.0 rebounds per regular-season game. He hasn’t been quite as proficient during the playoffs – he’s averaged just 5.9 rebounds per game – but he has been a bit more active on the glass vs. the Heat.

Tatum has ripped down eight boards in two of four contests, and he’s averaged 6.8 rebounds over 37.5 minutes per game. Tatum has the potential to play more than 40 minutes if Game 5 is competitive, so the Over on 6.5 boards has plenty of appeal.

Miami Heat Player Props

Miami Heat guard Kyle Lowry (7) dribbles the ball with his right hand as he heads down the court in a game against the Phoenix Suns
Image Credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Point Guard Kyle Lowry

The prop: 4.5 assists
The odds: Over -125/Under -105

There aren’t a ton of player props available for the Celtics given their injury report, so we’ll have to focus on the Heat instead. Luckily, there are some quality options available with the home team.

Lowry is currently questionable, but he seems likely to play after suiting up in each of the past two contests. He was solid in his first game back, racking up 11 points and six assists in Game 3, but he struggled to get anything going in Game 4. He ultimately finished with just two assists over 21.4 minutes in the blowout loss.

Lowry should return to around 30 minutes if Game 5 is more competitive, making the over on 4.5 assists appealing. He averaged 7.5 assists per game during the regular season, and he’s handed out at least six dimes in three of four postseason contests with at least 28.7 minutes. As long as his playing time returns to normal, there’s significant value to go Over 4.5 dimes.

Additionally, the Heat could be without Tyler Herro on Wednesday. He’s officially questionable, but his current injury typically requires 2-4 weeks of recovery. Don’t be surprised if he’s ruled out, and Lowry would have to do a bit more than usual in that scenario.

Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) shoots a free throw against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center.
Image Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Center Bam Adebayo

The prop: 8.5 rebounds
The odds: Over -150/Under +115

The Over on Bam’s rebounding prop has been juiced way up, but he’s a great bet to pay it off. He managed just six boards last game, but he was another victim of reduced minutes in a blowout loss. He racked up at least nine boards in each of his two previous contests, and he averaged 10.1 rebounds per game during the regular season.

The Celtics are elite in a lot of areas, but they’re merely average on the glass. They ranked 12th in team rebound rate during the regular season, and Robert Williams is one of their best rebounders. He’s still playing reduced minutes after getting injured at the end of the regular season, so this is a very winnable matchup for Adebayo. Lean towards the Over here.

Miami Heat forward Max Strus (31) moves for the basket during the third quarter against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum.
Image Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Shooting Guard Max Strus

The prop: 11.5 points
The odds: Over -105/Under -125

Strus is also technically questionable for this contest, just like he has been for every other game this postseason. However, that hasn’t stopped him from starting each of the Heat’s 15 postseason contests. Miami’s injury report is basically like the points in “Who’s Line is it Anyway”: The injuries are made up and the designations don’t matter.

Strus will be in the lineup on Wednesday, and he’ll be looking to bounce back from a disastrous showing in Game 4. He was 0-7 from the field and 0-4 from 3-point range, and he finished with zero points scored. ZERO. Strus has notched some solid performances in the playoffs, but he’s now hit the under on 11.5 points in three of four games vs. the Celtics. He’s also hit the under in seven of his past 10 games overall.

Making matters worse, Duncan Robinson is starting to heat up. He drilled four 3-pointers in Game 4, so it’s very possible that Robinson has earned more playing time moving forward. Strus will likely continue to start, but Robinson has basically been a non-factor for most of the playoffs. If he picks up a few additional minutes off the bench, they will likely come at the expense of Strus.

Put it all together and the Under on 11.5 points is definitely viable.