Player prop betting in the WNBA offers one of the most beatable markets in all of sports gambling.
While NBA props are subject to sharp lines and massive betting volume, WNBA props often lag behind in pricing accuracy, especially early in the season and during weekday slates. The books simply don’t dedicate the same algorithmic or human resources to these lines, which gives informed bettors a rare edge.
Every day of the WNBA season, we’ll bring you our top picks to help maximize this value.
Best WNBA Player Props Today – Friday, May 16
Looking for the best WNBA player props today? Our Props team breaks down their top WNBA prop picks every day throughout the season.
Every day during the regular season and playoffs, we run through our favorite WNBA player props. We also provide a comprehensive guide to the world of WNBA props.
Kelsey Plum
Kelsey Plum is projected to deliver a stronger all-around performance in her regular season debut for the Los Angeles Sparks against the Golden State Valkyries. She will play better than she did in the 83-82 preseason road win against the Valkyries on May 6.
While she tallied 11 points, five assists and two rebounds in just 24 minutes during that tune-up game — shooting 0-of-4 from beyond the arc — the increased minutes and higher stakes of the regular season should allow her to tap into the offensive rhythm she’s shown over the last three seasons as a full-time starter.
Plum has become one of the WNBA’s most reliable offensive weapons, averaging 18.9 points per game over the last three years. She’s especially dangerous in transition and off the dribble, and her ability to score from multiple levels makes her difficult to contain, especially when she finds her rhythm early.
With 4.6 assists per game as a starter over the last three campaigns, Plum has shown solid court vision and an understanding of spacing. In Los Angeles, she’ll take on the primary point guard duties — a role she’s already excelled in with Team USA — giving her even more control over the offensive tempo.
She’s coming off seven years with a contending franchise, which have shaped her into a composed, high-IQ player who can handle pressure and elevate teammates. Her familiarity with former Aces teammate Dearica Hamby also gives the Sparks a built-in on-court chemistry.
Despite being a volume shooter from deep, Plum’s efficiency from long range can fluctuate. The 0-of-4 showing in the preseason game may have just been rust, but it highlights how her production can dip if her perimeter shot isn’t falling.
While not a liability, she isn’t known for elite perimeter defense. On a young Sparks roster, she’ll need to set the tone as a communicator and stay sharp off-ball to avoid lapses.
That said, given that the Valkyries are an expansion team and still finding their identity, expect Plum to use her experience and aggressive scoring mentality to take control early and set the tone for Los Angeles. She’ll likely log 30+ minutes and deliver the stat line fans have come to expect.
Pick: Kelsey Plum to score 20+ points | FanDuel
Pick: Kelsey Plum to record 6+ assists | FanDuel
Arike Ogunbowale
Against the Lynx, Arike Ogunbowale is projected to continue her elite-level production, especially given her past success in this matchup and her unchanged offensive role despite offseason roster turnover in Dallas.
With no Satou Sabally or Natasha Howard, and even with a top rookie like Paige Bueckers now on the roster, Ogunbowale will remain the primary engine of the Wings’ offense. Her high usage rate, shot volume, and ability to score in bunches make her a safe bet for another standout outing, particularly against a familiar opponent.
Ogunbowale is among the most fearless scorers in the league. With a career-high 19.2 field-goal attempts and 8.5 3-point attempts per game last season, she can generate offense from all over the floor — whether off the dribble, in isolation, or coming off screens.
Her confidence and willingness to take high-stakes shots have made her a go-to option in tight games. She’s capable of stringing together quick scoring runs and thrives under pressure.
Averaging 5.1 assists per game last season, Ogunbowale has improved as a playmaker. She’s not just a scorer — she can create for others when defenses collapse on her drives or hedge out on her perimeter looks.
Her 2.1 steals per game last year reflect her active hands and aggressiveness in passing lanes, which can lead to fast-break scoring chances.
Given her prior averages of 23 points, 7.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds in 39.2 minutes over three games against the Lynx last season — and the elevated responsibility this year — a slight uptick in scoring and steadiness across peripherals should be expected. Ogunbowale is primed for a big night on Friday.
Pick: Arike Ogunbowale to score 20+ points | FanDuel
Know the Structure of the WNBA: Why It Matters for Props
Before diving into numbers, you need to understand how the WNBA’s format and roster structure impact props. Fewer teams, a shorter season, and heavier reliance on starters all shape how props are set—and how you should attack them.
- 13 teams, 44 games per season (in 2025): Smaller sample sizes make trends easier to spot but also demand quick adaptation.
- Star-dominant rotations: Unlike the NBA’s frequent load management, WNBA stars often play heavy minutes—35+ MPG is normal for top-tier players.
- Condensed rotations: Most teams use 7–8 players consistently. That means injury news creates bigger swings in usage rates and prop outcomes than in deeper leagues.
- Fewer back-to-backs: Game scheduling allows stars to play more regularly without rest days, which boosts reliability when betting overs.
Key Stats to Track for Successful Props Betting
Raw stat averages won’t give you the full edge. To consistently beat prop lines, you need to understand not just what a player produces—but how, why, and against whom. These are the core metrics that actually matter in 2025 WNBA betting.
Usage Percentage
This is your cornerstone stat for scoring props. Players with high usage dominate possessions, touch the ball frequently, and are the first scoring option. In 2024, Kahleah Copper, A’ja Wilson, and Chennedy Carter led the league in usage percentage.
Tip: Compare usage percentage with minutes per game. A player with a 31.1% usage rate playing 32.4 minutes (like Kahleah Copper in 2024) is far more likely to cash a scoring prop than someone with similar usage but fewer minutes.
Rebounds Per Game and Opponent FG%
With no access to rebound chances or rebounding rate data in the WNBA, your best angles are actual rebounds per game, opponent field goal percentage, and team rebounding volume.
- Angel Reese led the league with 13.1 RPG in 2024.
- A’ja Wilson ranked second with 11.9 RPG.
- Chicago Sky and New York Liberty led the league in team rebounding with 36.6 RPG.
Low opponent FG% creates more missed shots, which means more rebound chances. That gives rebound props value when a strong rebounder faces an inefficient offense.
Assists Per Game and Ball-Handling Role
Actual assist numbers and role clarity offer plenty of betting value.
- Caitlin Clark led the league with 8.4 assists per game last season.
- Alyssa Thomas (7.9 APG) and Natasha Cloud (6.9 APG) followed close behind.
- Sabrina Ionescu rounded out the top five with 6.2 APG.
Look for high-assist players who dominate possessions and initiate plays. You can also gain value by fading secondary ballhandlers in games where usage is shared.
Team and Opponent Pace
More possessions = more opportunities for points, rebounds, assists, and made threes. Pace stats tell you how many trips up the court teams average per 40 minutes.
Target overs in games involving teams like the Las Vegas Aces, Los Angeles Sparks, and Seattle Storm, all of which played at a top-five pace in 2024. Slower matchups (like Minnesota vs. Atlanta or Connecticut) are better for unders on volume stats.
Opponent Positional Matchups
Some teams are consistently bad against specific positions. For example:
- Guards feasted against the Indiana Fever backcourt in 2024.
- Bigs routinely put up strong rebounding and scoring numbers against Dallas and Phoenix.
Use recent box scores, player logs, and betting performance histories to identify teams that allow strong production from players in certain position.
Timing Matters: When to Bet Props
Prop betting isn’t just about what you bet—it’s when you bet it. Knowing the optimal windows for attacking the market can be the difference between grabbing a soft line and chasing a stale number.
Opening Lines (Early Value)
Books often release WNBA props the morning of a game. That’s when the lines are softest. Jump on overs for role players stepping into new minutes before news gets baked into the line.
After Injury News Impacts
WNBA depth charts are shallow. If a starter is ruled out, the ripple effects are immediate and measurable. The sixth player suddenly becomes the second scoring option, and books are often slow to adjust.
Example: If Sabrina Ionescu is ruled out for the Liberty, Natasha Cloud and Marine Johannes both see significant upticks in usage and assist opportunities.
Late Market Steam (Fade or Follow Carefully)
Once a line moves significantly—say, a points line jumps from 14.5 to 16.5—be cautious. Don’t chase steam blindly. Sometimes you’re better off passing than betting into a line that’s lost its edge.
Prop Types and Strategy By Category
Each stat category behaves differently in the WNBA. Understanding how to approach each type of prop lets you build a sharper and more efficient betting card.
Points Props
Most straightforward, but often inflated for stars. Look for inefficiencies in mid-tier players with increased roles or favorable matchups.
- Target high-usage, high-minute players in pace-up matchups.
- Bet overs for players facing poor perimeter or interior defenses.
- Unders are valuable when a player’s role shrinks due to rotation changes or tough matchups (e.g., facing Breanna Stewart or Ezi Magbegor inside).
Rebounds Props
Look beyond averages. Use:
- Opponent FG%
- Shot volume
- Low shooting percentages = more rebound chances.
Assists Props
Unlike the NBA, WNBA assist tracking is limited — but assist props are still beatable if you focus on who actually handles the ball and creates offense. Use:
- Assists Per Game – In 2024, Caitlin Clark (8.4), Alyssa Thomas (7.9), and Natasha Cloud (6.9) led the league. These are primary facilitators playing heavy minutes.
- Minutes + Role – Look for players who run the offense and stay on the floor 30+ minutes per night. For example, Alyssa Thomas initiates most of Connecticut’s offense despite being a forward. (She is now with the Mercury and will likely do the same).
- Game Pace and Matchup – Fast-paced matchups (like vs. Indiana or Vegas) lead to more possessions and assist chances. Also look for teams with weak on-ball defense that allow a high number of assists.
- Recent Trends – Did a player just shift to a new lineup spot (e.g., starting PG due to injury)? That usage jump might not be baked into the lines yet.
3-Pointers Made Props
Only a few players consistently attempt 6+ 3-pointers per game. Look for:
- Teams Opponent Shooting Percentage
- Matchups where defenders sag off
- Players who get extended run due to blowouts or injury absences
Situational Angles That Beat the Books
Sometimes it’s not just stats that tell the story—certain matchups, emotional edges, or game formats can produce unique betting opportunities.
Blowout Games
In lopsided spreads (10+ points), starters might sit early in the fourth. Look to fade points props for stars and take overs for bench players whose minutes spike in garbage time.
Revenge or Narrative Games
WNBA players, like their NBA peers, rise to the occasion in certain matchups. If a player is returning to face a former team or rival, motivation may lead to increased usage and shot attempts.
Second Leg of Home-and-Home
When teams play each other twice in a row, adjustments are key. Defensive schemes tighten, and scoring often drops. Consider unders on volume shooters or assist props if passing lanes get clogged.
Tools and Resources
You don’t need to handicap everything manually. These tools save time and bring consistency to your research so you can act quickly when markets shift.
- WNBA Stats Site (stats.wnba.com): For advanced data, including usage, shooting zones, and play-type frequencies.
- ESPN WNBA Box Scores: For historical context and player trends.
- Beat reporters and team X accounts: For lineup changes and late-breaking injury news.
Bankroll Strategy for Props
Your betting edge means nothing without discipline. If you don’t manage your units, variance will catch up no matter how sharp your picks are.
- Flat betting: Bet the same unit size on each prop to avoid volatility.
- Limit overs: Don’t blindly bet overs just because it’s fun. The best value is often in unders that the public avoids.
- Track CLV (closing line value): If you consistently beat the closing number, you’re on the right path—even if the early results are volatile.
Final Thoughts
Betting on WNBA props is all about information, timing, and niche awareness. You’re not trying to outsmart the sharpest NBA lines—you’re navigating a market that often reacts slower and offers more value to those who dig deep.
If you learn how to interpret advanced metrics, follow team-specific trends, monitor injury impact, and apply strict bankroll discipline, WNBA props can become a profitable long-term betting angle—especially during the summer when many bettors shift their attention elsewhere.
