The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check around the sportsbook landscape, shopping for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, and NFC West have been covered. Additionally, the AFC East, AFC North, and AFC South have been analyzed. Thus, the AFC West will wrap up the division betting previews.
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, Caesars Sportsbook has the most favorable odds for my favorite bet for the AFC West. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you’re leaning in a different direction.
AFC West Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +175 |
| LA Chargers | +220 |
| Denver Broncos | +275 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +700 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of August 9.
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Kansas City Chiefs Odds To Win AFC West: +175
The Chiefs have won the AFC West the previous six years, four with Parick Mahomes as the starting quarterback. Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and Andy Reid is one of the league’s top head coaches. So, that’s an elite foundation.
However, the Chiefs traded game-changing wideout Tyreek Hill. They’ve revamped their wide receiving corps, attempting to replace the speedy departing receiver’s production with multiple players with varying skill-sets. They also might have to replace Orlando Brown Jr. early in the season if his frustration over a lack of an extension agreement results in a holdout. Still, it’s understandable why the Chiefs are the betting favorites with the Mahomes/Reid pairing and ample top-shelf talent.
Further, in 2021, including the postseason, the Chiefs were sixth in overall Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade. And according to Football Outsiders, they were also seventh in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and sixth in Weighted DVOA. Finally, their 116-point differential was the third-best in the AFC and fifth-best mark in the NFL.
Thus, the Chiefs have wiggle room to adjust to their changing pieces and still contend for the AFC West crown. However, the rest of the division made monumental changes to close the gap. So, Kansas City’s margin for error is smaller in 2022 than in recent years. There are enough cracks in the foundation that I’m unwilling to eat the chalk with the Chiefs to win the AFC West. Having said that, I’m intrigued by their +225 odds to finish second in the AFC West located in the division specials section at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Chargers Odds To Win AFC West: +220
The Chargers missed the 2021 postseason by the skin of their teeth, losing on an overtime field goal in Week 18 against the division-rival Raiders. Nonetheless, there are positives to draw from their 2021 campaign.
First, Justin Herbert followed up a brilliant rookie season with a sensational sophomore campaign, playing well for a new head coach, Brandon Staley, and offensive coordinator, Joe Lombardi. The trio is back in the fold, and they’ve spent the offseason taking advantage of Herbert’s rookie contract, shoving chips in the middle for splashy additions, such as J.C. Jackson, Khalil Mack, and Sebastien Joseph.
The Chargers were 17th in PFF grade, 12th in DVOA, 11th in Weighted DVOA, and had a 15-point differential. Herbert is a rising star, and the defensive personnel additions should help them kick it up a notch on that side of the ball. The Chargers are ascending.
Denver Broncos Odds To Win AFC West: +275
No matter your opinion of Russell Wilson at this point in his career, he’s a massive upgrade on Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. However, in the offseason, he wasn’t the only significant change for the Broncos.
Denver also replaced head coach Vic Fangio with first-time head coach Nathaniel Hackett. He has had seven years of experience as an offensive coordinator in the NFL with mixed results. Hackett has been Green Bay’s offensive coordinator for the previous three years.
However, how much credit does Hackett deserve for Green Bay’s offensive success? Head coach Matt LaFleur was the play-caller, and back-to-back NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback. Additionally, while I favor hiring a new head coach instead of a retread, Hackett’s range of outcomes is wide. He could be a rising star or fall flat on his face.
Nevertheless, Wilson and Hackett are joining a team with an intriguing foundation. Denver was only 23rd in PFF grade. However, they were 18th in DVOA, 15th in Weighted DVOA, and outscored their opponents by 13 points in 2021, despite a 7-10 record. The lack of continuity on the Broncos at quarterback and head coach and the talent elsewhere in the division has me looking in a different direction for the AFC West champion.
Las Vegas Raiders Odds To Win AFC West: +700
The Raiders clawed into the playoffs in 2021. Yet, they’re not resting on their laurels. They hired Josh McDaniels as their new head coach and replaced Mike Mayock with Dave Ziegler as general manager.
The Raiders also made headlines by trading for Davante Adams, pairing him with former college teammate Derek Carr. However, their eye-catching moves weren’t limited to the offense. The Raiders traded pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue to the Colts for cornerback Rock Ya-Sin after signing edge rusher, Chandler Jones.
The Raiders made win-now moves in a talented division. Was that wise? Maybe it wasn’t. Last year, the Raiders were 18th in PFF grade, 21st in DVOA, 20th in Weighted DVOA, and were outscored by 65 points. Additionally, the Raiders won all four of their overtime contests in 2021, sporting a 7-2 record in one-score games. The Raiders’ moves can help them stave off regression, but they’re rightfully the longshots to win the AFC West, and I’m not biting.
AFC West Predictions & Best Bet
The Chargers have a superstar quarterback and aggressive head coach who wasn’t overwhelmed in his first year in that capacity. They’re wisely taking advantage of Herbert’s rookie contract and adding elite talent around him. As a result, I love their +220 odds to win the AFC West.
Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers to win the AFC West | +220 at Caesars Sportsbook
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This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
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More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: