Prior to this season, a wager on Lamar Jackson’s interceptions was fairly easy to make. He threw just three interceptions on 170 attempts as a rookie. The next season, when he won the MVP award, he had six interceptions in 401 attempts. And even though last year was a down year for Jackson, he still had just nine picks in 376 pass attempts.
But in 2021, Lamar Jackson and his interceptions have become a big story.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep as of 7 a.m. ET on Dec. 16.
Lamar Jackson vs. Green Bay Packers
The Prop: Lamar Jackson Interceptions
The Odds: Over 0.5 (-141)/Under 0.5 (-110)
With 13 interceptions on the season, Jackson is just behind league leaders Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, who have 14. It’s an unfamiliar place to be for Jackson, but not a surprising one, considering all of the injuries the Ravens have suffered this season.
The run-first Ravens offense has been decimated by injuries since before the season began, allowing defenses to focus more on Jackson, who has had to carry Baltimore all year long. We’ve seen it with other quarterbacks who are forced to make plays because the rest of the team is struggling, and we’re seeing it with Jackson this year.
Jackson has played in 11 full games this season, and he has interceptions in seven of them. And not including his last game, when he left injured after just four passes, he has thrown a pick in four straight full games.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our complete NFL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
The Packers Pass Defense
The Green Bay Packers +12 turnover margin is the second-best in the NFL, and it’s largely been fueled by a secondary that has 14 interceptions on the season, which ranks sixth in the NFL.
The Packers have intercepted nine different quarterbacks this season, and they’ve picked off three of the last four QBs they faced – Justin Fields, Matthew Stafford, and Russell Wilson. Only Kirk Cousins avoided an interception during that stretch, although they’ll get another crack at him on January 2nd.
Green Bay also has interceptions against Kyler Murray, Taylor Heinicke, Joe Burrow, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jared Goff.
Lamar Jackson’s Ankle
One other thing working against Jackson this weekend is his sprained right ankle, which will affect his game in two ways.
First, he will run the ball less because of the ankle, meaning he will throw more passes and probably more passes into coverage. And secondly, as a right-handed thrower, he plants with his right foot, and a bad right ankle could alter his accuracy on passes.
Usually, trouble with plant foot causes the ball to sail on a quarterback, over his receiver’s head, and right to the waiting deep safeties.
The Prop
As you can see from the listed odds, betting the over doesn’t pay nearly as much as the under. But that’s because the much safer bet is that, yes, Lamar Jackson will throw at least one interception on Sunday against the Packers, and possibly more.