He’s one of the best running backs in the NFL and playing for one of the best teams that is still playing meaningful football into the middle of December. All of those factors together usually point to big rushing games (and overs for NFL player props) down the stretch run.
But these are not usual times for the Cowboys, nor for running back Ezekiel Elliott. Needless to say, Zeke hitting this week’s OVER comes with a big question mark.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep updated 6 a.m. ET on Dec. 15.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. New York Giants
The Prop: Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards
The Odds: Over 66.5 yards (-118)/Under 66.5 yards (-114)
Last December, Elliott ran for 105 yards against the Eagles, and he had a 77-yard game against the Ravens. And that was with the Cowboys having long since been eliminated from the playoff picture. It was also a down year for Zeke, as the 979 yards for the season was the lowest total of his career.
In 2019 he was a much stronger finisher, going for 117 against the Rams and 122 in the final game of the season, a 47-16 win over Washington.
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Elliott’s Health
The 2021 season is playing out like a B-version of last season, as Elliott continues to struggle with a knee injury that has plagued him since early October.
The Cowboys and Elliott have admitted that his health isn’t great, and you can see it when he plays. He limps at times, and the burst isn’t there. And it isn’t going to be there until next season. Well, maybe by next season?
There are no plans to sit Elliott and rest his knee, and that means the version of Zeke that hasn’t broken 50 yards in the last six weeks is the version we’ll see against the Giants and for the rest of the season.
"I felt good. The way the game went, second half, they played Corey [Clement] a little more, but I felt good today." — Ezekiel Elliott, 12/12/21pic.twitter.com/u3wxqZW6Zk
— Mark Lane (@therealmarklane) December 13, 2021
Giants Run Defense
The Giants’ run defense is not good. They’re giving up 120 yards per game, which ranks 25th in the league. They’re also getting worse, giving up 142.7 yards over their last three games and 152 last week against the Chargers.
Although no single back has gone for more than 67 yards against New York since Week 9, the Cowboys have a good chance to top that mark. They should have success running the ball, but not necessarily because Elliott has a big game. Tony Pollard and Corey Clement will also get in on the act.
In fact, last week against Washington, it was Clement leading all Cowboys rushers with 13 carries. Food for thought.
The Prop
Of course, we can envision a scenario where Zeke rips off a couple of huge runs against the Giants. The Cowboys can build a lead from here, and then the bulldoze show is on.
But with Zeke’s health, the Cowboys very consciously limiting his carries, and Tony Pollard expected to return, it would be very unexpected to see Elliott have a big day.
The most direct answer to the above question is no, Ezekiel Elliott will not go over 63.5 rushing yards in Week 15.