Oklahoma State needs this game to try and sneak its way into the College Football Playoff. However, Baylor is no slouch, and the 5.5-point spread is an awkward number that the Bears can cover. After all, this is a neutral site game at Jerry’s World in Arlington, Texas.
Should you take Baylor plus the points, or will Oklahoma State repeat its 24-14 win over the Bears from earlier this season? We’ll break that down and examine the odds, action, trends, and historical data in this Big 12 Championship Betting Preview.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, December 4
- Time: Noon ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (neutral site)
- TV: ABC
- Weather: Dome
Consensus Odds
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total |
| FanDuel | Oklahoma State -5.5 (-106) | 46.5 |
| DraftKings | Oklahoma State -5.5 (-110) | 46.5 |
| BetMGM | Oklahoma State -5.5 (-110) | 46.5 |
| Caesars | Oklahoma State -5.5 (-110) | 46.5 |
| FoxBET | Oklahoma State -5 (-110) | 46.5 |
Odds updated as of 4 p.m. ET Dec. 2.
Betting Action Report: Cowboys See Betting Support
UPDATE 3:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Oklahoma State is now No. 5 in the CFP rankings, hoping an impressive win — and perhaps help from others — gets it into the playoff. The Cowboys quickly dropped from -6 to -4 at DraftKings, then rebounded to -5.5. Ticket count and money are running 4/1 on Oklahoma State. The total dipped from 47.5 to 46.5, even though 88% of tickets/66% of dollars are on the Over.
Editor’s Note: Check out Patrick Everson’s College Football Week 14 Action Report with betting insights on Iowa-Michigan, Georgia-Alabama, and more.
BetPrep Betting Trends
Baylor Key Trends
- The Bears are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games versus the Cowboys.
- That said, Baylor is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall and 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog.
- The Under is 4-1 in the Bears’ last five games overall.
Oklahoma State Key Trends
- The Favorite is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings between these rivals.
- The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a Favorite.
- The Under is 18-8-1 in the Cowboys’ last 27 games overall.
Related: View the complete BetPrep College Football Trends Report for Conference Championship weekend.
Historical Betting Trends
Oklahoma State won the regular-season meeting against Baylor 24-14 on October 2, easily covering as a 4-point home favorite. The 14 points were the Bears’ fewest this season, while the 10-point loss was Baylor’s largest (only other loss was by two points at TCU).
The first meeting stayed well Under the 47.5-point total. The Cowboys have stayed low in all five of their games away from home, while the Under is 4-1 in the Bears’ last five overall.
Oklahoma State is on a 9-0-1 ATS run, going 6-0-1 ATS as a favorite and 4-0-1 at home during this stretch.
Baylor is 3-1 SU and as betting underdogs in 2021 (only loss at Oklahoma State). If the Bears pull off the upset Saturday, they would tie Michigan State (4-1) for the best record by a Power 5 team as an underdog this season (minimum three games as an underdog).
Game Pick & Final Thoughts
Here’s what Props.com’s Matt Perrault had to say about this game on the Prop City Podcast:
“My philosophy on [conference] championship games has been to take the points. Not blindly, but I take the points a lot. Seeing +6 on Baylor looks pretty attractive. That’s where I’m leaning”.
— Betting on Baylor? If you agree with Perrault’s lean of Baylor plus the points, you can find the Bears +5.5 (-110) at numerous sportsbooks, including DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars.
— Riding with the Cowboys? If you like Oklahoma State’s chances to continue its spread-covering hot streak, FoxBet has the best number on the Cowboys at -5 (-110).
— Big Bet Alert. BetMGM reported a $275,000 bet to win $250,000 on Oklahoma State -5.5.
