It was a weekend of giving over Thanksgiving, with defenses giving eight different quarterbacks 300-yard games. The shootout in Dallas produced QBs No. 1 and 2, with Dak Prescott and Derek Carr going for 375 and 373, respectively. Who was third for the week? Yep, it was Andy Dalton of the Bears. Of course! Just when you think you know what’s going on this season, you are reminded that actually anything is possible. With that in mind, let’s dive into the best NFL props for quarterbacks in Week 13.
All odds courtesy of BetPrep, updated 8:00 AM Eastern on December 1, 2021.
Indianapolis Colts: Carson Wentz
The Prop: Carson Wentz Passing Yards vs. Houston Texans
The Odds: Over 273.5 yards (-116) / Under 273.5 yards (-114)
In the spirit of anything being possible, sure, the Texans might keep this close, and the Colts will have to continue to run their regular offense, meaning that Carson Wentz will have to throw. But no one really thinks that’s going to happen.
The far more likely scenario is that Indianapolis runs over the Texans with Jonathan Taylor, the Colts build a comfortable lead, and the passing numbers for Wentz dry up in the second half. It’s worth noting that Wentz’s biggest games – 306 vs. the Bucs and 402 vs. the Ravens – came when they gave up more than 31 points in losses.
In big and easy wins over the Bills and 49ers, Wentz went for less than 200. This will be a big win.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our complete NFL Prop Betting Guide to get up to speed!
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert
The Prop: Justin Herbert Passing Yards vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Odds: Over 284.5 yards (-114) / Under 284.5 yards (-118)
The AFC is stacked with great young quarterbacks, and two of them go head-to-head in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon.
Joe Burrow’s numbers have gone up and down with the production of Joe Mixon, but Justin Herbert of the Chargers has been more consistent. He had 382 yards in L.A.’s big comeback win over the Steelers two weeks ago and threw for another 303 yards at Denver, even though it was a very thorough defeat.
Twice in losses, he’s gone over 300, and four times in wins, he’s gone over 300. So don’t worry about the final result. Roll with Herbert to have a big yardage game, regardless of who wins.
Baltimore Ravens: Lamar Jackson
The Prop: Lamar Jackson Total Yards vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Odds: Over 305.5 yards (-114) / Under 305.5 yards (-116)
During a recent pair of low-scoring games for the Ravens, 10 points vs. the Dolphins and 16 points vs. the Browns, Lamar Jackson’s overall numbers were pretty rough. He had 277 total yards in the loss at Miami and had just 233 yards in an uninspired win over Cleveland. That’s not what we’ve grown accustomed to from the former MVP.
LaMAGIC Jackson 🪄✨@Lj_era8 is making MOVES on Sunday night. #RavensFlock
📺 NBC and @peacockTV pic.twitter.com/PlK4FdoP3q
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 29, 2021
But the two games before that, he had 386 total yards and 345. He’s also gone over 305 total yards against the Raiders, Chiefs, Lions, Broncos, and Colts.
In the last month, the Steelers have allowed 472 total yards to Justin Herbert and 334 total yards to Justin Fields, and there’s no reason to think that Jackson won’t have another huge game against a Pittsburgh defense playing short-handed.
