Each week, BetPrep’s NFL Player Props Guru and NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Feinberg discusses how the site’s historical data shaped his picks with Michael Salfino of The Athletic and FiveThirtyEight. Here are some highlights from the latest episode of the Givin’ Props Podcast.
Brad is on fire at the moment, entering this show with a 69-32 record this year. Let’s see if he can keep it going in Week 12.
Note: These write-ups are shortened transcriptions from the podcast episode. Be sure to listen to the full podcast for context and more NFL Player Props!
Tom Brady Under 2.5 Rushing Yards
Brad’s Take: I actually lost this bet earlier in the year. But I don’t care when the math still works. Then it was Under 4.5 yards. Now it’s well under it but I still like it. I put it in the BetPrep Grinder. Should I not like this bet? Has he gotten faster? Is he a better runner? Of course not.
In his last 100 games. He’s 67-33 to the Under. You don’t need a calculator to know that’s 67%.
How about his last 50 games? He’s 37-13 Under, or 74%. His last 25 games. He’s 19-6, 76%. But here’s where it gets interesting. In 11 games this year, he’s 5-6. But why? Again, he’s not a better athlete now, right? It’s not like a running back with a trend like this where maybe he’s getting more snaps and touches. Everything is the same. So I would still put his probability of winning this bet at 67%. I’m viewing the numbers this year as a fluke.
Editor’s Note: New to NFL player props? Check out our comprehensive NFL Prop Betting Guide to get started!
T.Y. Hilton OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
Brad’s Take: I thought about going with Michael Pittman here, but I’d rather take the lesser number with Hilton. I did my research on BetPrep and the last 15 games, Hilton’s 8-7 to the Over and averaging 49 yards a game. So, you know, it’s about a 50/50 bet. But that’s against a normal team. The Bucs are not normal. They’re very tough to run against and easier to pass against so this is probably more like 60/40 … It’s hard to run on Tampa Bay. And if it’s hard to run on them, that means it opens up more passing attempts. This number for Hilton is just too low and I’m going to bite. I think the right number, based on my math, is right around 48 receiving yards for Hilton.
Jonathan Taylor Under 79.5 Rushing Yards
Brad’s Take: Yes, Vita Vae is back. That’s huge. I get it: Jonathan Taylor is the hottest player in the league. I took him as a pizza bet to win the MVP in our Givin Futures podcast this week. He’s playing amazing. However, let’s look at Taylor in BetPrep. This year, out of 11 games, he’s just 6-5 Over this number. So this is almost a 50/50 bet against an average opponent. The Bucs we know for sure are not average. We forget the season-long trends because he just had 180 yards. But these trends are still relevant to the prop. And the Bucs, I assume, will try to get Taylor away from Vae by swinging the ball out to him as a receiver in space. That’s what I would do. I’m not saying that Taylor is going to be a non-factor. I just think it may be more as a receiver than we’ve seen generally.
Dalvin Cook Over 77.5 Rushing Yards
Brad’s Take: This is just too low. In his last 20 games, he’s 15-5 to the over while averaging 109 yards a game. This year, 6-2 including five in a row, averaging 92 yards a game. The 49ers are ranked average in run defense. There’s nothing good about their run defense.
This is a bet that, if I lose, I’ll sleep very well.
But just because the number is too low doesn’t mean you’ll win. Maybe it doesn’t win against this opponent 75% of the time. But it’s two-of-three times a winning bet, I’m confident. You know he’s going to get his carries. And he’s great; he very rarely has a bad game. Also, the Vikings are in every game. We know blowouts are the enemy of rushing props but the Vikings are the only team in the league that’s been up a touchdown in every game. They just don’t get beaten soundly.
For more of Brad’s picks, listen to the full Givin Props podcast. He has three more NFL Player Props for Week 12. Don’t forget to subscribe so that you get the podcast the moment it’s published. Reviews are also much appreciated.