Ever wonder why your average quarterback tends to have an ego the size of the Grand Canyon and believes rules don’t apply to them? (Yeah, we’re looking right at you, Aaron Rodgers!) It’s because they’re showered with attention from Pop Warner to high school to college to the NFL to … death.
Well, not here, not this week.
For the first time this season, you won’t find a single quarterback listed among our top 10 NFL prop bets for Week 10. (We’re also benching running backs, but that’s because a bunch of marquee tailbacks are dealing with injuries; as such, bookmakers have yet to post props on them.)
Instead, we’re offering up NFL props on two tight ends and three wide receivers, as well as a first-quarter, first-half, and kicking prop, plus an alternate total and alternate spread. Happy wagering!
Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET Nov. 12.
Michael Pittman to score any touchdown (vs. Jacksonville)
The odds: +115 (at BetMGM)
The case for Yes: To say the Colts’ WR had a disappointing rookie campaign would an understatement akin to saying his current quarterback is a tad injury prone. Last year, Pittman had 40 receptions for 503 yards in 13 contests — and seven of those receptions and 101 of those yards came in one game. Pittman’s sophomore season, on the other hand, has been extremely productive, as he’s connected with that injury-prone QB 50 times for 658 yards and five TDs in nine games. All five scores came in Pittman’s last four games, and he’s found the end zone each of the past three weeks (four times in all).
The case for No: This isn’t a two-way prop — that is, you can either wager that Pittman will score a TD or keep your money in your pocket. Here’s why you might want to consider the latter: Jacksonville has surrendered just 11 passing touchdowns in eight games, tied for third-fewest in the NFL. Last week, the Jags held Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the explosive Bills offense out of the end zone entirely in a 9-6 win.
Kyle Pitts Over/Under 68.5 Receiving Yards (at Dallas)
The odds: Over -115/Under -110 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: The Falcons’ rookie TE showed what a beast he is in back-to-back games last month against the Jets and Dolphins, hauling in 16 total passes (on 18 targets) for 282 yards. Yeah, but come on — Jets and Dolphins? We understand. But we also understand Dallas fields a bottom-10 pass defense that’s giving up 270.5 yards per game through the air.
The case for the Under: You would think a quarterback who began his NFL career throwing to Tony Gonzalez would know how to feed a game-changing TE like Pitts. Unfortunately, Matt Ryan has Father Time breathing down his neck, because if you take out the Jets and Dolphins contests, Pitts is averaging just 3.3 receptions and 44 yards in six games, during which he topped this prop number just once.
Bills -6.5 vs. Jets, First Half (at New York)
The odds: Bills -110/Jets -110 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Bills: The Bills cashed first-half tickets in each of their first six games, leading by margins of 10, 14, 13, 16, 11 and 3 points. Conversely, the Jets are 2-6 ATS in the first half, have yet to enter the locker room with a lead, and have trailed at the break by 10-plus points all six times they failed to cover a first-half line.
The case for the Jets: Buffalo has managed a total of three first-half field goals in the last two games … against the Dolphins and at the Jaguars! Also, in their last 10 meetings with New York, the Bills have held a first-half advantage just four times (and two of those were by scores of 7-6 and 17-13). Number of first-half leads for Buffalo in its last five trips to Jersey: one (31-3 in November 2018).
A.J. Brown Over/Under 5.5 Receptions (vs. New Orleans)
The odds: Over -150/Under +110 (at BetMGM and DraftKings)
The case for the Over: The Titans’ No. 1 wideout must’ve slipped QB Ryan Tannehill a few Benjamins in recent weeks. After catching just 10 passes (on 25 targets) in his first four games (one of which he left early with an injury), Brown has tallied 30 receptions on 40 targets in his last four contests. With fellow wide receiver (and oft-injured) Julio Jones questionable yet again with a hamstring issue — and with Derrick Henry possibly sidelined for the season — Brown should get plenty of looks in this one.
The case for the Under: Yes, Brown has turned it on of late, but the fact remains he’s hauled in six or more passes just three times in the eight games he’s started (he landed on five last week against the Rams). And while the Saints rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed (273.3 per game), they’re in the top half in completions allowed (23.4 per game).
Buccaneers-Washington Over/Under 9.5 First-Quarter Points (at Washington)
The odds: Over -130/Under +110 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Over: Tampa Bay leads the NFL in first-quarter scoring at 8.2 points per game — nearly a full point more than the next-best club (Arizona, at 7.3 ppg). First-quarter scores in the Bucs’ last four outings: 10-7, 14-7, 21-0, 7-7. (Is it really a surprise that an offense led by a senior-citizen quarterback is awake and ready to roll from the get-go?)
The case for the Under: Washington has started games with less energy than a middle-school student in first-period math class. In fact, among teams that don’t play home games in New Jersey, none has scored fewer first-quarter points than the Football Team’s 16. Which is mostly why only three of Washington’s eight games have had as many as 10 points in the opening 15 minutes.
Vikings-Chargers Over/Under 56.5 Points, Alternate Total (at Los Angeles)
The odds: Over +125/Under -150 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: If you bet every Vikings home game Under the total and every Vikings road game Over the total this season, guess what? You’d be 7-for-7 and out shopping for another TV for your man cave (or is it “person” cave now?). And if you’ve played the Chargers’ defense in your fantasy league in recent weeks, you probably broke a TV or two — that D has yielded 31.8 points per game in its last four contests (after surrendering just 18.5 ppg in its first four).
The case for the Under: While Minnesota has averaged 30.5 ppg on the road, its offense has thrown up some clunkers (albeit at home): 16 points vs. Cooper Rush and Dallas; 19 points vs. Detroit; 7 points vs. Cleveland. Also, the Chargers’ leaky defense plugged a few holes last week (24 points allowed at Philly). And this is still the same stop unit that held the Cowboys (home), Chiefs (road), and Raiders (home) to 20, 24, and 14 points, respectively.
Eagles-Broncos Longest Field Goal Made (at Denver)
The odds: Broncos -110/Eagles +105 (at DraftKings)
The case for the Broncos: Remember when NFL coaches used to get fired for trotting out kickers for insanely long field-goal attempts? Not anymore. Kickers these days are attempting 60-yarders nearly as often as they’re missing PATs. So why not include a prop involving two guys kicking in the thin air of Denver? Broncos veteran Brandon McManus is 16-for-18 on field goals this season (9-for-9 in the last three games). And although his longest make at home this year is just 47 yards, last season he was good from 56 and 58 yards at Mile High (yes, we still call it that).
The case for the Eagles: Philadelphia’s Jake Elliott hasn’t gotten a ton of chances this year (13 attempts), but he’s delivered when called upon (11 makes). That includes a 58-yard bomb at Carolina. Elevation in Charlotte, N.C.: 751 feet. Elevation in Denver: 5,279 feet.
Tyler Lockett Longest Reception Over/Under 22.5 yards (at Green Bay)
The odds: Over -115/Under -110 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Over: A (generously listed) 5-foot-11 quarterback throwing to a (generously listed) 5-foot-10 wide receiver shouldn’t work past high school graduation. Yet it continues to work for the Seahawks, as Lockett regularly reels in big passes from Russell Wilson. To wit: With Wilson under center in Seattle’s first five games, Lockett had long catches of 69, 63, 15, 19 and 25 yards. Without Wilson under center, Lockett has long receptions of 21, 7 and 28 yards. Newsflash: Wilson (finger injury) is back in action this week.
The case for the Under: The Packers’ pass defense ranks seventh in the league, allowing just 210.4 passing yards per game. Last week in Kansas City, the Packers let Patrick Mahomes complete 20 passes. Only one went for more than 14 yards — a 25-yard completion to this guy …
Travis Kelce Total Touchdowns Over/Under 0.5 (at Las Vegas)
The odds: Over -112/Under -118 (at The SuperBook)
The case for the Over: In 14 career matchups against the Raiders, The Best Tight End in Football has scored seven touchdowns. Five of those TDs came in Kelce’s last six meetings with the Raiders — which just happens to coincide with Patrick Mahomes being his quarterback. No matter the QB (Mahomes or Alex Smith) and no matter the city (Oakland or Vegas), Kelce has hit paydirt at least once in four straight roadies vs. the Raiders.
The case for the Under: Kelce found the end zone three times in K.C.’s first two games. In seven games since? Two touchdowns. And from the believe-it-or-not files: The Raiders are tied for seventh in fewest passing TDs surrendered (12 in eight games). Then again, look at some of the QBs Las Vegas’ secondary has matched up against: Jacoby Brissett, Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater, Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, and an over-the-hill Ben Roethlisberger.
L.A. Rams -7.5, Alternate Spread (at San Francisco)
The odds: Rams +165/49ers -200 (at BetMGM)
The case for the Rams: Los Angeles has seven victories this season, the second of which was a 27-24 escape job at Indianapolis in Week 2. The margins in the Rams’ other six victories: 20, 10, 9, 27, 9 and 16 points. Meanwhile, the 49ers have been favored in all four of their home games … and lost all four of their home games. The last three of those defeats (Seahawks, Colts, and Kyler Murray-less Cardinals) were by 7, 12 and 14 points.
The case for the 49ers: San Francisco has to give its fans reason to raise their wine glasses at some point, right? Why not against the rival Rams, a team the Niners have defeated four straight times. Dial the calendar back to 2008, and San Francisco is 18-7-1 against the St. Louis/L.A. Rams. (Let us also not underestimate the possibility of Odell Beckham Jr.’s arrival in L.A. completely mushing the Rams’ season.)
Week 9 Results
Baker Mayfield Over/Under 6.5 rushing yards (Under – 0 yards)
Dallas Cowboys Over/Under 29.5 points scored (Under – 16 points)
Justin Jefferson Over/Under 72.5 receiving yards (Under – 69 yards)
Mark Ingram Over/Under 28.5 rushing yards (Over – 43 yards)
Hunter Renfrow Over/Under 5.5 receptions (Over – 7 receptions)
Patriots-Panthers first half moneyline (Patriots – 14-6 halftime lead)
Dustin Hopkins Over/Under 2.5 extra points (Under – 1 extra point)
Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 0.5 interceptions (Under – 0 INTs)
Jordan Love Over/Under 232.5 passing yards (Under – 190 yards)
T.J. Watt Over/Under 2.5 solo tackles (Over – 4 solo tackles)
