Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!
Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my five favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for the Sunday main slate of Week 6.
Darrell Henderson MINUS 29.5 Rush Yards Vs. Devontae Booker
For my first pick, we have a battle between opposing running backs. In one corner, we have Darrell Henderson attached to the 9.5-point favored Rams. And, in the other corner, we have the backup running back thrust into starter duties, Devontae Booker, on a 9.5-point underdog. The expected game script is already an eye-catching advantage for Henderson.
Still, it gets better. According to Football Outsiders, the Giants rank 26th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and the Rams rank 15th. Further, they rank the Rams eighth in Adjusted Line Yards, and the Giants rank 31st. Also, Pro Football Focus sees a sizable gap in run blocking between the two clubs, ranking the Rams ninth and the Giants 23rd.
Finally, Henderson is playing good football, and Booker’s a backup filling in for Saquon Barkley. Henderson’s 73.5 rushing yards per game rank ninth in the NFL, per Pro-Football-Reference. As a result, Bet Prep has Henderson projected for 77.50 rushing yards and Booker projects for only 45.53 rushing yards.
Editor’s Note: Want more Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks? Check out Josh’s analysis for Sunday’s London game between the Jaguars and Dolphins.
Ja’Marr Chase MINUS 15.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Tee Higgins
Cincinnati’s passing attack should feast on Detroit’s horrendous pass defense. However, Ja’Marr Chase should have a larger hand in the production than fellow talented young receiver Tee Higgins. The rookie wideout has quickly zoomed to the top of Cinci’s receiving pecking order.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Chase has a 24.6% target share compared to only 15.5% for Higgins. Further, rather than looking at raw Intended Air Yards, let’s look at per-game Intended Air Yards since Higgins missed two games. Again, Chase has a decided advantage over Higgins, averaging 111.8 versus only 71.0.
In addition, Chase’s 16.0-yard average depth of target makes him a perfect fit for exploiting Detroit’s struggles against explosive pass plays compared to Higgins’ more modest 9.7-yard average depth of target. The Lions have allowed the highest average explosive pass rate (15%) this year, according to Sharp Football Stats.
Finally, Chase is outperforming Higgins in the traditional box-score department as well. The rookie is averaging 91.2 receiving yards per game, and the second-year wideout is averaging only 50.0 receiving yards per game. Thus, it’s not a surprise Bet Prep projects Chase for 89.11 receiving yards, and they project Higgins for 56.71 receiving yards.
Kyler Murray UNDER 315.5 Total Yards
This year, Kyler Murray is playing at an MVP-caliber level, evidenced by averaging 302.4 passing yards and 22.0 rushing yards per game. However, he’s failed to exceed 315.5 total yards in three of five games this year, including falling short in his last two games.
Additionally, he might be battling mother nature and a talented Browns defense, all while having the unenviable task of adjusting his body clock for playing in the 1:00 PM ET slot as a Pacific timezone club traveling east. According to The Weather Channel’s website, Cleveland, Ohio, has a wind forecast in the 20-30 mph range for Sunday. Sometimes weather can be overrated when projecting performance, but that’s a significant wind. Further, this is a sizable yardage total Murray might struggle to hit under ideal weather conditions.
Finally, Murray’s number of plays might be reduced significantly due to facing the Browns. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns are playing at the third-slowest situation neutral pace. Compounding Arizona’s problems for running up their play total is Cleveland’s excellence on the ground — even with Nick Chubb ruled out — meshing with the Cardinals being more giving on the ground than through the air (third in pass defense DVOA and 13th in rush defense DVOA). Again, bet Prep is picking up what I’m putting down, and we’re in lockstep expecting Murray to go under his total yardage, as they project him for 255.41 passing yards and 31.77 rushing yards (287.18 total yards).
Baker Mayfield UNDER 256.5 Passing Yards
Unfortunately for Baker Mayfield, he faces the same Mother Nature issues as Murray. Further, he lacks the weaponry of his opponent, and the Browns have a favorable matchup to lean heavily on their elite run-blocking line against a defense that’s more susceptible against the run than the pass — as I noted above. Expanding on the run blocking, the Browns rank second in Adjusted Line Yards, and Pro Football Focus grades them third in run blocking.
Honestly, I’m not sure why they’d deviate from force-feeding the rock to Kareem Hunt. But, then again, that wouldn’t be a change from their modus operandi. According to Sharp Football Stats, when the offensive scoring margin ranges from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Browns pass at the third-lowest rate (51%, well below the league average of 57%).
Cleveland’s run-heavy approach helps explain Mayfield averaging only 248.0 passing yards per game. Also, he’s fallen short of 250 passing yards in three of five games this year. I love this under, and Bet Prep is in alignment, projecting Mayfield for only 230.0 passing yards.
Dak Prescott UNDER 281.5 Passing Yards
Last week, I was burned taking Dak Prescott’s passing yardage under. Nevertheless, those things happen, and it’s imperative to have a short memory. Thus, I’m going back to the well in a game that profiles more favorably for Dallas’ rushing attack than their aerial game.
Sure, the Patriots were just carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey by rookie Davis Mills last week. Nevertheless, they rank eighth in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in rush defense DVOA. The Cowboys’ run-blocking prowess should exacerbate new England’s rush defense issues. The ‘Boys rank first in Adjusted Line Yards and Pro Football Focus’s run-blocking grade.
Additionally, the Cowboys are 3.5-point favorites, potentially setting up a favorable game script if they’re able to put the Patriots in a hole early. As for Prescott, since passing 58 times in the opener, he’s sported pass attempt marks of 27, 26, 22, and 32 over the last four weeks. He’s passed for under 240 yards in three of five games, and he needed remarkable efficiency last week to surpass 300 passing yards. Maybe Dak will burn me again, but Bet Prep supports my decision to hop on the under, projecting him for 257.63 passing yards.
