The Rams weren’t explosive in their shocking win last week, but they were surprisingly competent. So, one of their wideouts has a reasonable player prop worthy of consideration. On the other side, an emerging rookie and a veteran who’s slipped to a minor role in the offense also have stellar props to consider. Let’s break down the Packers vs. Rams player props below.
Packers vs. Rams Player Props: MNF Week 15
For a full list of Packers vs. Rams player props and odds, check out our dedicated page for NFL player props.
Ben Skowronek Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
John Wolford started for the Rams last week, but Baker Mayfield took over after the first series. He aired it out 35 times. Further, according to numberFire, the Rams attempted seven passes and three rushes by non-quarterbacks in a neutral game script. So, Mayfield didn’t reach 35 attempts entirely because the Rams played from behind.
Ben Skowronek was one of Mayfield’s favorite options when he chucked it. Skowronek had a 22.9% Target Share, seven receptions, and 89 receiving yards. In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Skowronek ran the second-most routes (37) for the Rams and had a 9.9-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) in Week 14.
Mayfield and Skowronek demonstrated chemistry on deep passes that could pay off this week. Mayfield completed both passes that were thrown at least 20 Air Yards to Skowronek, and Green Bay has allowed 11 completions on 22 attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards since Week 8. Fortunately, Skowronek was also targeted four times at five Air Yards or shallower, meaning he was targeted on high-percentage throws. Finally, the Rams are underdogs and will likely have to air it out, enhancing Skowronek’s chances for receptions. So, his over for 2.5 receptions is tasty.
Where to bet: Ben Skowronek Over 2.5 Receptions | -130 at BetMGM Sportsbook
Christian Watson Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Christian Watson is a dynamic athlete, and his traits have translated to production lately. In Green Bay’s previous four games, Watson had 107, 48, 110, and 48 receiving yards, putting him over his prop of 46.5 receiving yards in each of those contests.
Additionally, Watson had a 22.6% Target Share, 24.3% targets per route run rate, 15 receptions, 313 receiving yards, 467 Air Yards, 2.93 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR), and a 19.2-yard aDOT. The speedy wideout has a fantastic matchup tonight, too. First, according to Football Outsiders, the Rams are 25th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Second, No. 1 wide receivers have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (89.6) against the Rams. Third, Los Angeles has allowed 11 completions on 20 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards for 373 passing yards since Week 8.
Fellow rookie wide receiver Romeo Doubs is back to add target competition to the mix. Still, Watson’s role in the offense should be secure since he’s their most productive offensive weapon lately. Therefore, I love his odds of having more than 46.5 receiving yards.
Where to bet: Christian Watson Over 46.5 Receiving Yards | -113 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Robert Tonyan Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Robert Tonyan has largely been ignored in Green Bay’s offense. Since Week 10, he’s had an 8.7% Target Share, seven receptions, 57 receiving yards, 62 Air Yards, and 0.73 Y/RR. In addition, Tonyan was under 22.5 receiving yards in all four contests, recording 8, 19, 20, and 10 receiving yards.
Green Bay’s offensive tendencies favor Tonyan to fall short of 22.5 receiving yards, too. In neutral game scripts since Week 8, the Packers have attempted 87 passes and 82 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Further, they’ve attempted 33 passes and 43 rushes when tied or leading in those contests.
Conversely, teams have run a balanced offense against the Rams in the last two games without Aaron Donald wreaking havoc on the defensive line. LA’s opponents attempted 49 passes and 41 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last two games.
Finally, the matchup is challenging for Tonyan. Tight ends have averaged the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (43.6) against the Rams this year, and Los Angeles has faced some excellent tight ends, including facing Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, George Kittle twice, and Travis Kelce. Obviously, Tonyan isn’t in the same class as that quartet of tight ends. So, rolling with his under for 22.5 receiving yards is exciting.
Where to bet: Robert Tonyan Under 22.5 Receiving Yards | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
