Do you feel like a sharp football fan? Does winning money sound appealing to you? Of course!
Thankfully, Underdog Fantasy offers sports fans many gaming options such as best ball fantasy drafts and pick ’em prop challenges. As for the initial question posed, I’m here to help sharpen your football acumen by utilizing several helpful resources such as BetPrep projections to topple the over/under and rivals picks.
It’s easy to get started. Here’s how it works:
- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my five favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for the Sunday main slate of Week 5.
Ezekiel Elliott OVER 93.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards
There was much ado about Ezekiel Elliott coming to training camp slimmed down. Of course, every year, there are reports of players in “the best shape of their life,” and many of those players fail to make sizable improvements in the given year. Fortunately, Elliott is looking spy and bouncing back from a lackluster 2020 campaign.
Predictably, he struggled in the opener against the Buccaneers’ stout run defense. Since then, he’s posted scrimmage yardage totals of 97 yards, 116 yards, and 143 yards from Week 2 through Week 4, per Pro-Football-Reference.
In addition, the Cowboys have shifted away from their pass-happy approach in the opener. From Week 2 through Week 4, with an offensive scoring margin ranking from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points, the Cowboys are running at the third-highest clip (53%), per Sharp Football Stats. Further, when the Cowboys have a lead of three or more points over the last three weeks, their rushing percentage surges to 59%, which is an important note since the Cowboys are seven-point favorites against the visiting Giants.
Finally, this matchup is a confluence of a great run-blocking offensive line facing a horrendous run defense. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys rank first in Adjusted Line Yards, and the Giants rank 26th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. Also, Pro Football Focus grades the Cowboys first in run blocking. The Cowboys have won three straight, leaning heavily on Zeke in favorable matchups, and I don’t see that changing in this contest.
*Editor’s Note: Looking for more Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks? Check out our special article dedicated to the Falcons-Jets game in London!
Dak Prescott UNDER 283.5 Passing Yards
Taking Dak Prescott under for 283.5 passing yards is the perfect same-game correlation pick with Zeke’s yards from scrimmage over. As I noted above, the Cowboys have shifted to a run-heavy approach the last three weeks. While that approach change and the projected favorable game script enhance Zeke’s effort for eclipsing his yardage prop, it hurts Prescott’s odds of going over his.
Looking at the last three weeks, Prescott has attempted 27 passes, 26 passes, and 22 passes in Cowboys’ wins. The low pass-attempt totals have resulted in three straight games falling short of 240 passing yards. Therefore, since I’m expecting the Cowboys to lean on the running game again, I’ll take Prescott’s passing yardage under. And, as a source of further encouragement, Bet Prep projects Prescott to go flying under his passing yards total, projecting only 256.38 passing yards.
Mike Gesicki OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s check out another pick that my outlook lines up with Bet Prep’s outlook. They’re projecting Gesicki for 49.79 receiving yards, comfortably over his receiving yards total. So now, let’s examine why we both like the pass-catching tight end to go over.
First, Miami’s backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, is peppering Gesicki with targets. This year, Brissett’s attempted 119 passes, directing 24 of them Gesicki’s way, resulting in 18 receptions for 184 receiving yards. Second, the Dolphins are 10-point underdogs against a defense that’s much more giving to the pass than the run. So, while the expected negative game script bodes well for Miami airing it out, they might come right out of the gate firing given Tampa Bay’s excellence defending the run. To that point, teams are well aware of Tampa Bay’s elite run defense, and as a result, they entered Week 5, facing the most pass attempts in 2021 (186).
Third, the Bucs are reasonably giving to tight ends, yielding the 11th-most receiving yards (239) to the position. Finally, calling Gesicki a tight end is probably misleading. Sure, that’s obviously his position designation. However, according to Pro Football Focus, Gesicki has played 133 passing snaps, running 120 routes, pass blocking only four times, and aligning inline only six times. In other words, he’s a jumbo receiver. Unfortunately, there’s a risk Miami’s offense completely unravels against the Bucs. However, I think they’ll do just enough to move the football at a semi-competent rate in the air, and Gesicki will play the most significant hand in that happening.
Leonard Fournette OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards
Once again, I’m selecting a pick with correlation in mind. Unfortunately, since the Buccaneers can conceivably keep throwing if they’re leading by a large margin, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yardage over isn’t quite as closely correlated with Gesicki’s yardage over as the Zeke and Prescott pick selections. Still, if the double-digit-favorite Bucs are trouncing the Dolphins, Tampa Bay will be positioned ideally to steamroll Miami’s below-average run defense.
The Dolphins are ranked 20th in rush defense DVOA. Also, Miami has surrendered the third-most rushing yards (495) to running back this year at a rock-solid 4.42 yards per rush attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference. Additionally, while Tom Brady and the passing attack receive acclaim, the Buccaneers’ offensive line is average or better at run blocking. Pro Football Focus ranks them 15th in run blocking, and Football Outsiders ranks them fourth in Adjusted Line Yards.
Finally, “Lombardi Lenny” has pulled away from Ronald Jones in backfield work. Fournette has carried the ball 44 times for 184 yards this year, and Jones has rushed the ball only 21 times for 77 yards. Yes, the Buccaneers beat the Falcons by 23 points in Week 2, but the final scoring margin is deceptive, as a couple of fourth-quarter pick-sixes fuel the lopsided margin. Thus, we haven’t gotten a comprehensive look at how the Bucs will play with a big lead. I think that changes this week, and I like Fournette’s odds of carrying the ball 15 or more times, and that should be enough to go over his rushing yards total in a plus matchup.
Dan Arnold +1.5 Receiving Yards VERSUS Anthony Firkser
Here’s my last standout Underdog Fantasy pick for Week 5, siding with one mediocre tight end facing another mediocre tight end in an AFC South slop fest — I mean slugfest.
Anthony Firkser missed Week 2 and Week 3 with a knee injury, sandwiching three catches for 19 yards and three catches for 23 yards around his two missed games. He’s played half or fewer of the Tennessee Titans’ offensive snaps in his two games. Further, his underwhelming performance last week is made all the more discouraging by the absences of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Unfortunately for Firkser’s passing-game outlook, Brown’s returning this week.
On the flip side, the Jaguars actively acquired Dan Arnold, trading for him last Monday. How desperate were they for help at tight end? Well, he played just three days after joining the team via trade in their Thursday Night Football contest. Now, he’s had an extended week to learn the playbook after being rushed into playing 13 passing snaps, running 11 routes, and hauling in both of his targets for 29 yards last week. Also, I’m encouraged by his alignment for the Jacksonville Jaguars, playing six passing snaps in the slot and three aligned wide. Essentially, he was used as a big wideout. And, with D.J. Chark Jr. injured, they need receiving contributions beyond those provided by top two receivers Marvin Jones Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr.
Comparing Firkser and Arnold further, the Titans are 4.5-point favorites, so the expected game script is more favorable for Arnold’s outlook than Firkser’s outlook. If the Titans take the lead, they’ll lean heavily on running back Derrick Henry. And, if the Jaguars are in a hole early, they’ll have to pass to play catch-up.
As a result, Bet Prep projects Firkser for 29.10 receiving yards and Arnold for 31.83 receiving yards. Thus, getting 1.5 yards with Arnold is gravy, so I’ll take his side of this rivals pick.
