The 49ers are at home following their bye and face the banged-up Chargers. The hosts are understandably favored against their California counterparts. However, will the 49ers win convincingly enough to cover the spread? Should bettors wager on a different offering? Before offering our 49ers vs. Chargers predictions, we’ll walk you through the need-to-know info for both teams.
49ers vs. Chargers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | +7 (-110) | +245 | O 45 (-110) |
| @ 49ers | -7 (-110) | -295 | U 45 (-110) |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2 p.m. ET on Nov. 11. New to DraftKings? Check our DraftKings Sportsbook Review to find out how to bet $5 and get $200 in free wagers!
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA
- TV: NBC
49ers vs. Chargers Trends
- The 49ers were 6.5-point favorites on Sunday night and ticked up to 7.0-point favorites on Monday, holding steady at that line since.
- The 49ers are 6-1 against the spread versus a team with a winning record.
- San Francisco is 6-1 against the spread in home games.
- The 49ers are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games after amassing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
- San Francisco is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
- The Chargers are 4-9-1 against the spread in their last 14 games after allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
- Los Angeles is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games following a straight-up win.
San Francisco Checks All The Boxes
The 49ers are a well-rounded club. First, according to Football Outsiders, San Francisco is 13th in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Second, they’re ninth in total defense DVOA.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) is also a fan of the product they’re putting on the field. PFF ranks the 49ers 14th in total offense and sixth in total defense.
Fortunately, even the traditional statistical measures are stellar for San Francisco. Yes, the 49ers are just 19th in scoring offense (22.0 points per game). However, they’ve averaged 23.7 points per game if you exclude the Week 1 contest played in tsunami-like conditions, and that mark would be tied for the ninth-best with Miami’s high-powered offense. In addition, per Pro-Football-Reference, the 49ers are seventh in yards per play (5.9). So, the offense is holding up their end of the bargain.
Meanwhile, the defense is even better. San Francisco has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per play (4.8) and is tied for sixth in sacks (26) and scoring defense (18.4 points per game). The 49ers can hang in a shootout or win a defensive tussle. Further, their overall excellence opens the door for them to blow out their opponents.
The Chargers Are In Trouble
The Chargers won a nailbiter in Week 9 against the Falcons, and the Panthers just manhandled Atlanta on Thursday night. Obviously, teams can have down games, and the transitive properties shouldn’t be used in the NFL.
Still, the Chargers mustered an underwhelming 20 points. It was hardly the showing the team hoped for out of their Week 8 bye against Atlanta’s dreadful defense. The Chargers have scored 19, 23, and 20 points in their past three contests and are scraping the bottom of the barrel for pass-catching options for Justin Herbert while Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are injured.
Keenan Allen (hamstring) listed out for Week 10.
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 11, 2022
Somehow, Los Angeles’s offensive concerns pale compared to their defensive ineptitude at stopping the run. The Chargers have allowed more than 200 rushing yards in back-to-back contests and have coughed up more than 130 yards on the ground in five of their last six games.
Los Angeles is 29th in rush defense DVOA and allows the fourth-most rushing yards per game (145.2) and most yards per carry (5.7). To quote the meme, that’s not good, Bob. The 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey, and Kyle Shanahan can ride his stud running back against LA’s pitiful run defense.
49ers vs. Chargers Predictions
The expression “styles make fights” is often used in combat sports. However, it’s apt for this matchup. Unfortunately, San Francisco’s willingness to run and the Chargers’ run-funnel defense might make this a classic Mike Tyson versus a bum-of-the-month caliber fight.
Moreover, the winning and losing margin data for the 49ers and Chargers, respectively, enhance the appeal of laying the points with the favorite. San Francisco’s winning margins in four victories this year were 20, 15, 22, and 17, good for an average and median margin of victory of 18.5 points. Conversely, the Chargers have lost three games by margins of 3, 28, and 14, resulting in a 22.5-point average loss and a 14-point median losing outcome.
In other words, the 49ers have thoroughly whooped the opposition in their wins, and the Chargers have primarily rolled over in their losses. Thus, I’m betting the 49ers -7.0 points.
Pick: San Francisco -7 | -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
