Houston and Philadelphia are the centers of the sports world this week. The Astros and Phillies are squaring off in the World Series, and the Texans and Eagles jumpstart Week 9 on Thursday Night Football. Unfortunately, the first NFL game of the week might be ugly. The Eagles are massive favorites. The expected blowout is a consideration for our favorite bet. But what is our favorite bet? Let’s lay out our favorite Texans vs. Eagles predictions below.
Texans vs. Eagles Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -13.5 (-110) | -800 | O 45.5 (-110) |
| @ Texans | +13.5 (-110) | +505 | U 45.5 (-110) |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook as of 8 pm ET on Nov. 2. New to Caesars? Check our Caesars Sportsbook Review to redeem up to a $1,250 risk-free bet!
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 3
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium – Houston, TEX
- TV: Amazon
Texans vs. Eagles Trends
- The total opened at 43.5 points on Sunday (10/30) and has slowly climbed throughout the week to its present total of 45.5.
- The under is 6-2 in Houston’s last eight games after allowing less than 150 passing yards in their previous game.
- The under is 10-4 in the Texans’ last 14 games against a team with a winning record.
- The under is 4-1 in Philadelphia’s last five road games.
- The under is 57-24 in the Eagles’ last 81 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Houston’s Offense Is Lousy
The Texans should be ecstatic about hitting a home run in the fourth round of this year’s draft on running back Dameon Pierce. Unfortunately, he’s where the positives start and end for Houston’s offense.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Texans are 30th in yards per play (4.9) and 29th in scoring offense (16.6 points per game). In addition, they’re ranked poorly at Pro Football Focus (PFF) and Football Outsiders. First, PFF ranks Houston 21st on offense. Second, the Texans are 31st in total offense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders.
Houston’s best has also been thoroughly underwhelming. The Texans scored a season-high 24 points in Week 4 against the Chargers. They’ve scored 13, 20, and 10 since their season-best showing. So, they haven’t generated any momentum from that contest.
Further, Nico Collins is out, and Brandin Cooks is seemingly a long shot to play after sending a cryptic tweet following the NFL’s trade deadline and missing practice this week.
Don’t take a man’s kindness for granted. Covered for the lies for too long those days are done. Crossed the line with playing with my career 🏹
— Brandin Cooks (@brandincooks) November 1, 2022
Houston can’t afford to be without their top two wide receivers against Philadelphia’s stacked defense.
The Undefeated Eagles Can Do it All
Houston’s write-up segues perfectly into Philadelphia’s all-around excellence. The Eagles are third in yards per play allowed (4.7), tied for first in turnovers forced (16), tied for fifth in sacks (23), and fourth in scoring defense (16.9 points per game). They’re also ranked as the third-best defense by PFF and are second in total defense DVOA.
Philadelphia coughed up 35 points to the Lions in Week 1, but they’ve allowed only one opponent to score more than 20 points since the Jaguars amassed 21 points in Week 4, and Jacksonville’s first touchdown was a pick-six. In the past three games, the Eagles have held the opposition to 17, 17, and 13 points.
The Eagles are also outstanding on offense. They’re ninth in yards per play (5.8), third in scoring offense (28.0), the third-ranked offense at PFF, and third in total offense DVOA. Thus, the Eagles are a well-oiled machine.
Texans vs. Eagles Predictions
The Eagles should easily handle their business against the Texans. Yet, the game’s total is where I’m wagering my money. Houston’s game totals this year have been 40, 25, 43, 58, 19, 58, 58, and 27. Their median total is 40, and their average is 38.57 points.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s game totals have been 73, 31, 32, 50, 37, 43, and 48. And their median game total is 43, with an average game total of 44.86 points. Thus, the median and mean game total for the Texans and Eagles are lower than this contest’s total of 45.5 points.
Thursday Night Football has been low scoring this year, too. The median game total is 44, and the mean is 43.13 points. Finally, the Eagles will lean on the run to salt away the game when leading by a substantial margin.
According to numberFire, the Eagles have attempted 73 passes and 71 rushes by non-quarterbacks when leading by at least eight points. However, it wouldn’t paint the whole picture to exclude Hurts’ 30 rush attempts when the Eagles lead by at least eight points since designed quarterback runs are a significant part of Philadelphia’s offense. Thus, I’m on the game’s under of 45.5 points.
Pick: Under 45.5 total points | -110 at Caesars Sportsbook
