John Supowitz

Penn State vs. Auburn Predictions & Best Bets – NCAAF Picks Week 3

Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford #14 warms up before a 2021 home game.
Image Credit: Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports

Both of these teams escaped close calls in their season openers, then came back with comfortable victories in Week 2. Now Penn State will travel to Auburn for this Big Ten-SEC clash between college football powerhouses.

In this article, we’ll break down the odds to formulate Penn State vs. Auburn predictions and best bets for NCAAF Week 3.

Penn State vs. Auburn Predictions

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Penn State vs. Auburn Odds

TeamSpreadMoneylineTotal
Penn State-3-150O 47.5 (-110)
@ Auburn+3+130U 47.5 (-110)

 Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4 p.m. ET on Sept. 14.

Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Sept. 17
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium (Auburn, AL)
  • TV: CBS

Penn State vs. Auburn Trends

  • Penn State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite.
  • Auburn is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog.
  • Auburn has gone Under the total in 15 of their last 24 games.
  • The Penn State Under is 14-9-1 in their last 24 games.
  • As of Wednesday afternoon, DraftKings reports that 66% of tickets and 74% of the money are on the favorite Penn Sate against the spread. 
  • DraftKings also reports that 59% of betting tickets are on the Over 47.5 total points and 67% of the handle have selected Under 47,5 total points.

Auburn Wants Revenge

The talk around the Auburn locker room is that they should have beaten Penn State in Happy Valley last year. So consider this an important revenge game.

The Tigers narrowly beat San Jose State by eight points in Week 1. That’s somewhat of a cause for concern, as the Tigers came into that game as a 24-point favorite. They only led by more than two scores for a little over ten minutes.

Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter are one of the best running back tandems in the country. Quarterback Robby Ashdod rounds out a really good ground game. 

Penn State has been good against the run, with 160 rushing yards allowed in the first two games, but Purdue and Ohio do not have anyone like Bigsby and Hunter in their backfield.

Unfortunately, Ashford and TJ Henley have been awful in the passing game. They come into today ranked 103rd with 380 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and three interceptions between them. 

Sean Clifford Rebound Year?

Penn State’s secondary has been good in the first couple of games, led by veterans Johnny Sixon, Joey Porter Jr., and Ji’Ayir Brown. That group has allowed just a 48% completion percentage this year. I don’t see the Tigers getting much in the air against this unit.

As we see QB Sean Clifford this season, we need to believe that his injury last year is no longer of concern. He’s turned this offense two-dimensional, outperformed Aiden O’Connell with four touchdowns, and came through in big situations after several slip-ups.

Auburn has been shaky in the first two games against the pass, allowing 10.49 yards per completion. After an awful 2021, Clifford has played tremendously, and we should expect the veteran quarterback to take shots throughout this game.

We knew five-star Nick Singleton would be good, but the true freshman had a fantastic game last week against Ohio. Auburn is excellent up front again this year, allowing just 2.1 yards per carry. Singleton was a non-factor in the game against Purdue, and in a game where the Tigers could be one-dimensional, they want to do the same to the Nittany Lions.

Penn State vs. Auburn Predictions

Something feels different about the PSU team this year. Last year, Sean Clifford would have folded after that interception, and they probably would have lost that game to Purdue. They’re already battle and road-tested going against a team with many questions.

The turmoil of Auburn’s offseason hasn’t spilled over into a direct loss, but you can’t ignore not blowing out San Jose State at home.

This is going to be a tough and physical game, but the Nittany Lions have the better team and experienced quarterback that can lead them to victory. Even in a tough road atmosphere. 

Pick: Penn State -3 | -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook