Week 4 officially begins with the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, and we have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Thursday Night Football of Week 4.
Joe Mixon MINUS 33.5 RUSHING Yards Vs. James Robinson
Both Joe Mixon and James Robinson have brutal rushing matchups, right? That’s not exactly the case. Sure, Jacksonville’s held running backs to only 3.34 yards per rush attempt, per Pro-Football-Reference. However, their level of competition and predictable run-heavy game scripts have aided them greatly. As a result, Football Outsiders ranks them only 15th in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Conversely, the Bengals are the real deal in run defense, ranking second in rush defense DVOA. They’ve allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards (174) to running backs at a paltry 3.0 yards per rush attempt. Further, their competition has been challenging, opposing Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery, and Najee Harris. Therefore these aren’t equally stout run defenses.
In addition, Mixon should benefit from a pace boost and a good game script. Meanwhile, Robinson will be slowed down in this matchup and will likely be in a negative game script. Highlighting pace, the Jaguars are playing at the sixth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Bengals languish at 31st, per Football Outsiders. As for the game script, the Bengals are 7.5-point favorites.
Finally, Mixon should clobber Robinson in rushing volume. Through three weeks, Mixon’s handled 67 of 73 carries by running backs in Cincinnati’s backfield. Unfortunately for Robinson, he’s sharing a more significant percentage of the carry workload, toting the rock only 31 times compared to 19 for Carlos Hyde.
Additionally, the Bengals deploy a more run-heavy offense than the Jaguars. According to Sharp Football Stats, in a neutral game script (which I’m defining as an offensive scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points), the Bengals are running 49% of the time, and the Jaguars are doing so only 41% of the time.
Add it all up, and I’m comfortable laying 33.5 rushing yards with Mixon.
Ja’Marr Chase OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards
Unfortunately, Cincinnati’s run-heavy approach that helps Mixon’s case for piling up rushing yards hurts Chase’s case for amassing tons of yards through the air. Thankfully, he’ll benefit from the tempo boost against Jacksonville’s up-tempo offense and the way he’s used in the offense.
According to Sports Info Solutions, among players targeted at least 10 times, Chase’s average depth of target of 16.6 yards downfield is the sixth-deepest mark. He’s parlayed that deep-ball usage into efficient, ranking 10th among players targeted at least 10 times with 2.75 yards per route run, per Pro Football Focus.
Moving beyond Chase’s bona fides, the matchup plays into his hands, too. The Jaguars have ceded the fourth-most receiving yards (654 yards at 14.86 yards per reception) to wideouts, getting gashed by big plays. In addition, according to Sharp Football Stats, they have the ninth-highest average explosive pass rate allowed (11%).
Bet Prep is taking this all into account, and they’re in alignment with me, projecting Chase for 76.52 receiving yards.
Marvin Jones OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s close this out with another receiving yardage over I like. Marvin Jones Jr. is comfortably the top pass-catching option for the Jaguars, leading the way in targets (28), receptions (17), receiving yards (194), passing snaps (130), and routes (120). Further, he owns the ninth-most intended air yards (339), per Sports Info Solutions.
The matchup is good for Jones as well. Pro Football Focus’s wide receiver and cornerback matchup tool rank his matchup advantage as the 18th-best. Also, the Bengals haven’t been stingy defending receivers in general, coughing up the 10th-most receiving yards (541) to the position.
With the Jaguars serving as more than a touchdown underdog, they should be in a negative game script for a fourth game in a row to open the 2021 season. Naturally, therefore, I’m expecting the passing volume to be there for Jones.
So, let’s take the over on 67.5 receiving yards.