The MLB is one of the most analytical-based sports in the entire world. There are advanced metrics for basically every stat, allowing us to predict regression throughout the season for MLB starting pitchers.
In this article, I’ll outline some starting pitchers for this slate and where they could see regression. You’ll also find my MLB starting pitchers regression chart posted below.
MLB Starting Pitchers Today: Monday, Aug. 22
Edward Cabrera: Miami Marlins
Matchup: Miami Marlins at Oakland A’s | 9:40 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 1.78 ERA indicates
Cabrera is thrown at an extremely high level this season. He owns a 3-1 record with a 1.78 ERA through 6 starts. His .209 BABIP and 3.75 xFIP suggest he’s due for some regression, though.
The odd part here is that Cabrera has looked elite since returning from injury. He posted xFIPs worse than 4.50 in his first 3 starts of the season. Since returning, he’s recorded 2.84 or better xFIPs in each of his 3 starts.
Cabrera gets a good matchup against the Oakland A’s. They are an offense that’s struggled the majority of the season, and that’s been the case in recent games. They will also be playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium.
Bottom Line: This is a small slate, which limits regression candidates. Cabrera has been throwing at an elite level, and even though he’s due for some regression, I expect him to find plenty of success in this game.
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Luis Cessa: Cincinnati Reds
Matchup: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Positive – throwing better than 5.50 ERA suggests
Cessa has struggled quite a bit through 37 games (1 start) in 2022. He’s posted a 3-1 record with a 5.50 ERA. He owns a 4.16 xFIP through 37.2 innings, though.
Cessa’s only start this season went 1 inning. He threw 2 innings in his last game, though, and he could be in line for a short start. He is in the midst of his positive regression, as he hasn’t allowed a run in 7 consecutive games.
Cessa gets an interesting matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies. They haven’t been playing overly well in recent games, giving an edge to the right-hander. He’ll be throwing in an extremely hitter-friendly stadium, though.
Bottom Line: I’m not entirely sure how deep Cincinnati wants Cessa to throw in this game. It isn’t out of the question that he could find success in roughly 3 innings, although that’s far from a given.
Jake Odorizzi: Atlanta Braves
Matchup: Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates | 7:05 pm ET
Outlook: Negative – throwing worse than 4.15 ERA suggests
Odorizzi hasn’t found success through 15 starts this season. He’s recorded a 4-5 record with a 4.15 ERA thus far. He also owns a 4.85 xFIP through 73.2 innings.
Odorizzi has had a few decent games in terms of advanced metrics this season. He’s looked awful in recent starts, though. He has posted 6.76, 5.45, and 5.56 xFIPs over his last 3 starts. His ERA’s sat higher than his xFIP in only 1 of his last 4 starts.
Odorizzi gets a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight. They have been struggling for the majority of the season, and that’s been the case over the last 14 days.
Bottom Line: Odorizzi is due for regression, and he has looked awful in recent starts. He gets an elite matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, so he may be able to avoid that regression for another start.
