The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check around the sportsbook landscape, shopping for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, and NFC West have been covered. Additionally, the AFC previews kicked off with a look at the AFC East. Now, the AFC North is in the crosshairs.
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, DraftKings Sportsbook has the most favorable odds for my favorite pick to win the division. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you’re leaning in a different direction for the AFC North winner.
AFC North Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | +155 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +180 |
| Cleveland Browns | +320 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1000 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 15.
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Baltimore Ravens Odds To Win AFC North: +155
The Baltimore Ravens were ravaged by injuries, losing their entire running back room to season-ending injuries before the 2021 regular season began. For a team built on running the ball, it would be disingenuous to handwave the injuries to J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill as meaningless because “running backs don’t matter.” They also persevered through the absences of Marcus Peters and Ronnie Stanley. Finally, Lamar Jackson missed five games. If they’re healthier this year, the outlook should be better.
However, Jackson was only 7-5 as a starter last year, and the Ravens had a down year. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), they were 16th in overall team grade. Further, per Football Outsiders, Baltimore was 19th in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and 24th in Weighted DVOA. Their opponents also outscored them by five points, the 14th-worst mark in the NFL and the eighth-worst differential in the AFC. So, they must improve significantly to overtake the reigning AFC North and AFC Conference Champion Bengals.
In addition, Jackson’s play has steadily eroded since his NFL MVP campaign in 2019. Last year, Jackson was tied for 17th in Sports Info Solutions’ IQR, 17th in Football Outsiders’ and ESPN’s Total QBR, and 22nd in PFF’s offense grade. Now, Jackson will have to adjust to life without speedy receiver Marquise Brown after the club dealt him. Second-year receiver Rashod Bateman is a candidate to break out after a preseason injury delayed his debut. Regardless, the Ravens are mispriced as the favorites in the AFC North. Instead, the Ravens are +125 to miss the playoffs at DraftKings, and I dig it.
Cincinnati Bengals Odds To Win AFC North: +180
The Bengals were supposed to improve last year linearly and possibly challenge for a playoff berth this year. But they had different plans, hitting warp speed and losing a close Super Bowl. In his second season, Joe Burrow climbed to superstar status, despite playing behind a lousy offensive line.
The Bengals might have slightly overachieved, but their advanced metrics were above-average. Including the postseason, they were ninth in PFF grade. Cincinnati was also 17th in DVOA, 14th in Weighted DVOA, and eighth in point differential, outscoring their opponents by 84 points.
Even though they reached the Super Bowl last year, there is room to improve their 10-7 record. Fortunately, with Burrow on his rookie deal, the Bengals have wisely shoved some chips in the middle, shoring up their offensive line in free agency. The Bengals are talented on offense and defense, giving them the means to win shootouts or slugfests.
Cleveland Browns Odds To Win AFC North: +320
The elephant in the room is Deshaun Watson. The Browns mortgaged the farm for Watson while there was uncertainty about a suspension and the length. Sportsbooks aren’t leaving themselves too exposed. For instance, DraftKings doesn’t offer division specials for the AFC North teams or odds for the Browns to make or miss the playoffs.
Reading the tea leaves, the Browns and Watson are prepared for a suspension. In a largely — and correctly — criticized move, the Browns guaranteed Watson’s five-year, $230 million contract with a 2022 base salary of only $1.035 million, mitigating the amount of money he’ll lose through a suspension.
The odds are way too short to bet on the Browns with a lengthy — perhaps even an entire season — suspension looming. I’ll keep this short and sweet. If the NFL suspends Watson for at least six games, the AFC North is too good for the Browns to win led by Jacoby Brissett for that stretch. Finally, the odds aren’t sweet enough to hop on the Browns, hoping Watson avoids a suspension. Anyone bullish about Cleveland’s outlook is better waiting for a resolution with Watson since it’s hard to envision their odds climbing any shorter than +150, slightly shorter than Baltimore’s current odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers Odds To Win AFC North: +1000
It’s the end of an era in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger hung up his cleats after an 18-year career that started in 2004. Big Ben looked washed-up last year. So, while Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett are massive downgrades from when Roethlisberger was good, we last saw the retired signal-caller play at a high level in 2018.
Pittsburgh reached the postseason each of the last two years with a dusted Roethlisberger. Regardless, they didn’t win the AFC North in either season, and the Bengals aren’t a doormat anymore. The Steelers have given Jackson fits, which is part of the reason I like Baltimore’s odds to miss the postseason. Frankly, Pittsburgh can win some games ugly against the Ravens and Browns — if Watson is suspended.
In 2021, including the postseason, the Steelers were 26th in PFF grade. They were also 23rd in DVOA and 26th in Weighted DVOA. Finally, they had a -55-point differential. Thus, they were basically a fraudulent playoff team. As a result, they should come crashing back to earth in a rebuilding year. They’re not a valid threat to win the AFC North.
AFC North Predictions & Best Bet
The Bengals are ascending. As I stated, they overachieved a little bit. However, like a pitcher in baseball who beats his ERA estimators and suffers ERA regression while improving his underlying stats in the next year, the Bengals can fall short of the Super Bowl and still be an improved club with more long-term staying power.
Adding talent to the offensive line is a significant move, and it could allow head coach Zac Taylor to open up the offense for Burrow after an excellent sophomore season. However, the Bengals are the real deal, and the Ravens have significant questions. Thus, the odds for the Bengals winning the AFC North are a bargain.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals to win the NFC North (+180) | DraftKings Sportsbook
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This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
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More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions:
