It’s never too early to start looking ahead to next season, and there are a few college football win totals that stand out above the rest. Some for the better. Some for the worse.
Take note that these numbers could move as we draw closer to the college football season, but we uncovered the best lines (and odds) for each best bet — as of July 13, 2022. As always, double-check these odds and always shop around for the best price before placing a wager.
With that, let’s dive in!
2022 College Football Win Totals: 5 Best Bets
Before we jump into the best bets, it’s important to remember that Conference Championships and Bowl Games do not count towards college football win totals. Each team has a set 12-game schedule, and that’s what we are using to determine over/under each specified win total.
Syracuse Over 4.0 Wins (-140)
This is one of my favorite college football win totals heading into the 2022 season.
Syracuse has 18 returning starters from a team that went 5-7. The Orange have plenty of room for improvement while drawing a reasonable schedule to surpass five wins for the second-straight year.
Running back Sean Tucker and dual-threat Quarterback Garrett Shrader headline an offense that led the ACC in rushing yards per game last season (16th nationally). Returning four-of-five offensive linemen will help them compete for that standing again in 2022.
Not to be outdone, the Syracuse defense was solid in 2021 as well. The Orange ranked second in the ACC for total defense and 19th nationally. Syracuse returns eight starters from that group, including its entire linebacker and secondary units.
The schedule breaks down favorably when considering this win total. Facing UConn and Wagner should result in a pair of victories. From here, we need two more wins for the push and three to cash this win total. The toss-up games include Louisville, Purdue, Virginia, and Boston College. Three of those are at home, which helps.
There’s also a chance Syracuse can pull off an upset in a home date with Florida State. The Orange will probably have less than a 25% win probability against North Carolina State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest. However, Syracuse nearly knocked off Clemson and Wake last season, and the Orange should be improved. Grabbing an upset or two out of that group is certainly in play.
If we add up all the win probabilities, we get somewhere in the neighborhood of 5.35 wins for Syracuse. In other words, there are several paths for the Orange to surpass this win total in 2022.
You can find the best number at Caesars Sportsbooks, and first-time users can take advantage with a $1,500 risk-free bonus offer below.
Where to bet: Syracuse Over 4.0 wins | -140 at Caesars Sportsbook
NC State Over 8.5 Wins (-125)
Let’s keep things in the ACC, where North Carolina State has a legitimate chance to take the conference. In fact, betting the Wolfpack at +1200 to win the ACC is very much on the table.
However, we are looking at college football win totals in this article, and NC State jumps off the screen in that category as well.
Bryce Young of Alabama and CJ Stroud of Ohio State get all the attention when it comes to college football quarterbacks, but don’t sleep on NC State QB Devin Leary. As a sophomore, Leary tossed for 3,433 yards with 35 TDs and only 5 INTs. That helped the Wolfpack go 9-3 last season, and they are in a position to improve or maintain that mark in 2022.
NC State returns 10 starters from a defense that ranked third in the ACC and 21st nationally. Non-conference games against East Carolina, Charleston Southern, and Connecticut will help pad their win total as well.
It’s safe to assume that the Wolfpack will be favored in almost every game this season, with an October 1 date at Clemson serving as the lone exception. Because of this, NC State could legitimately win double-digit games in the regular season.
Of all sportsbooks, BetMGM is the best betting site for this pick at -125 juice.
Where to bet: NC State Over 8.5 wins | -125 at BetMGM
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Michigan State Over 7.5 Wins (-110)
The schedule plays out favorably for Michigan State this season. College football betting can be fickle, but as things stand, the Spartans should have an 85% or greater win probability in at least five games:
- vs. Western Michigan
- vs. Akron
- at Illinois
- vs. Rutgers
- vs. Indiana
Michigan State should also be favored by close to a touchdown (or greater) while hosting Minnesota and playing at Maryland. If they take care of business in all those games, that’s seven wins. Let that sink in.
Then we have games closer to a 50% win probability. This includes a trip to Washington, but the Spartans have enough talent to come out on top. The Huskies are rebuilding under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, and there’s a chance they don’t have all their pieces in place by the time MSU comes to town.
From here, the Spartans will get Wisconsin at home and Penn State on the road. Both of those games will be coinflips with the spread close to three or fewer points.
As things stand, MSU is expected to be an underdog of a touchdown or more at Michigan and vs. Ohio State. The spread against the Buckeyes could be north of 17 points.
If the Spartans win all seven games where they will be favored by a touchdown or more, then we only need one more victory in those five “coinflip or underdog” contests to hit Over on this win total. You better believe MSU has a shot at grabbing at least one win against Washington, Penn State, and/or Wisconsin. An upset of rival Michigan isn’t far-fetched either.
Even though the Spartans lost their best player (RB Kenneth Walker III) to the NFL draft, MSU has hit the transfer portal hard once again to pave its way to success.
Looking across different betting sites, taking Michigan State Over 7.5 wins has the best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (-110). That’s much less juice compared to -130 at DraftKings or -140 at BetMGM.
Where to bet: Michigan State Over 7.5 wins | -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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Virginia Under 7.5 Wins (-130)
Are you sick of hearing about the ACC yet? This is the third team we’ve outlined from this fading conference. We are finding plenty of opportunity in this wide-open division, so it’s time to pounce from a college football win total perspective.
There’s enough to like when it comes to the Virginia Cavaliers. However, most of that comes from a fantasy football and player prop perspective. The Cavaliers love to sling the ball with QB Brennan Armstrong, who finished with 4,449 passing yards last season. UVA’s defense was extremely generous in 2021, ranking 121st nationally in total yards per game.
It’s hard to win games when you can’t establish a running game or slow down opposing offenses. For that reason, a win total of 7.5 seems somewhat steep, especially considering that Tony Elliott is stepping into a tricky situation as the newly minted head coach.
The Cavaliers could jump out to a good start with games against Richmond, Illinois, Old Dominion, and Duke. However, things will get murky late in the season while facing Miami, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech.
No matter how often I go through the schedule, I can only come up with a maximum of seven wins. That’s assuming Armstrong stays healthy. If he runs into injury problems, this could be a difficult year for the Cavs.
This is my favorite “Under bet” when it comes to NCAA football win totals.
Where to bet: Virginia Under 7.5 wins | -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Utah Over 8.5 Wins (-135)
Do I expect Utah to make the National Championship Game? No. However, I have high expectations for the Utes’ upcoming season. That especially holds true relative to this 8.5 regular season win total that the oddsmakers set.
Utah was a surprise team in 2021, going 8-1 in the Pac-12, winning the conference, and nearly knocking off Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. The Utes were one of the best FBS teams down the stretch last season, and their total line seems too low.
Quarterback Cameron Rising burst onto the scene last season, and RB Tavion Thomas — who scored 21 touchdowns in 2021 — spearheads an offense that ranked 14th nationally in points per game.
A season-opening showdown at Florida will be a fantastic game to watch on September 3, and it will go a long way in determining how serious we should consider Utah when it comes to the College Football Playoffs. The Utes are currently favored by 2 in that contest.
From here, the schedule is reasonable. Utah should be favored in almost every game this season. Conference battles at UCLA, at Oregon, and vs. USC are crucial. The Utes beat all of those teams by 14 points last season, including whooping Oregon twice to close out the season.
A repeat performance isn’t out of the question. There’s a good chance Utah goes 9-3 or 10-2 in regular season games.
Where to bet: Utah Over 8.5 wins | -135 at PointsBet