The major offseason activity is in the books. So, it’s time to check around the sportsbook landscape, shopping for the best team futures. Armed with a wealth of information, now is the time to get some division winner tickets and monitor line movement as the offseason progresses. Attentive bettors usually nab the best odds in these markets months before the season starts.
The NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, and NFC West have been analyzed and dissected. However, the AFC East is the first division in the AFC to garner our attention.
After perusing the odds at multiple sportsbooks, DraftKings Sportsbook has the most favorable odds for my favorite wager in the AFC East. However, it pays to look around and get the longest odds if you’re leaning in a different direction.
AFC East Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -225 |
| Miami Dolphins | +450 |
| New England Patriots | +500 |
| New York Jets | +2200 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of August 8.
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Buffalo Bills Odds To Win AFC East: -225
The Bills lost a heartbreaking shootout in overtime to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 Divisional Round of the playoffs, a sad ending to an excellent season. Now, they’re the favorites (+300) to win the AFC Conference Championship and the Super Bowl (+600).
Buffalo was elite last year by any measure. Including the postseason, the Bills earned Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) eighth-highest overall grade. Per Football Outsiders, they were also second in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and third in Weighted DVOA. Additionally, they led the NFL in point differential, outscoring opponents by 194 points en route to an 11-6 record.
Unfortunately, the offense will have to adjust to life after offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, the new head coach of the New York Giants. Fortunately, there should be continuity on offense due to promoting quarterback coach and passing game coordinator Ken Dorsey to the offensive coordinator position.
The Bills have undergone some personnel changes in the offseason. However, the most notable move was the splashy signing of veteran edge-rusher Von Miller. The Bills are in a championship window and making moves accordingly.
They’re rightfully the runaway favorites to win the AFC East. Thus, the odds are shorter than I like to bet since that ties up funds for a long time for a small payoff. Instead, at Fanduel, parlaying the Bills to win the AFC East and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South yields +107 odds, and it’s a wager I love. I also have small bets on the Bills winning the AFC and the Super Bowl. For full disclosure, as a long-suffering fan of the Bills, the AFC Champion and Super Bowl bets were made with my head and heart. Nevertheless, they’re deserving betting favorites.
Miami Dolphins Odds To Win AFC East: +450
The Dolphins are one of the winners of the offseason. Yet, that’s not always a recipe for immediate success. Should they have the second-best odds to win the AFC East? I don’t think so.
First, the Dolphins were markedly worse than their 9-8 record in 2021. For example, Miami was 22nd in PFF grade, 25th in DVOA, and 21st in Weighted DVOA. In addition, they had a negative-32 point differential.
Yes, the Dolphins made headline-grabbing personnel changes. They traded for Tyreek Hill, signed offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Connor Williams to improve one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines, and added more offensive firepower with speedy running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert and slot wideout Cedrick Wilson.
Nevertheless, they are led by a first-time head coach, Mike McDaniel. He was the offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. However, he didn’t call plays in that role, and he’ll assume those duties for the Dolphins. McDaniel might be the next rising star young head coach, but his range of outcomes also includes falling on his face while adjusting to multiple new responsibilities.
Still, I’ve buried the lede. Miami’s offensive additions and new offensive-minded head coach will only go as far as Tua Tagovailoa takes them. They added Teddy Bridgewater to the quarterback room, but the Dolphins will sink or swim with the third-year quarterback.
The addition of speed on offense can help mask some of his shortcomings, but Tua was underwhelming last year. According to Football Outsiders, he was 18th in Total QBR. The lefty was also only 21st in Sports Info Solution’s IQR metric, tied for 24th with Tyler Huntley in PFF offense grade, and 18th in Total QBR. And for those who want to blame Tua’s struggles on his team context, Jacoby Brissett was narrowly behind him in two of the advanced metrics and bested him in PFF offense grade. Obviously, a young player can improve, but the Dolphins look like a more significant threat for the AFC East basement than a contender for the division title.
New England Patriots Odds To Win AFC East: +500
The Patriots pushed the Bills to the limit for the 2021 AFC East crown, going 10-7 and finishing one game behind them. That’s not a bad showing for Mac Jones in his rookie campaign. Further, Jones was tied for 18th in IQR, 16th in Total QBR, and tied for 11th in PFF offense grade. Simply, Jones showed more as a rookie than Tua has in two years in the NFL.
The Patriots also have the decided advantage at head coach. Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest head coach in the history of the NFL. But, of course, Belichick and Jones will have to adjust to life after Josh McDaniels — again. McDaniels was sniped by the Las Vegas Raiders to lead them as their head coach. In 2009-2010 when McDaniels was the head coach of the Denver Broncos, New England went 24-8. Obviously, Tom Brady isn’t walking back through the door, but they’ve persevered with McDaniels before.
Moreover, the Patriots were a well-oiled machine last year. In 2021, they had the third-best point differential and the second-best mark in the AFC, outscoring the opposition by 159 points. They were also third in PFF grade, fourth in DVOA, and second in Weighted DVOA. Even after accounting for losing superstar cornerback J.C. Jackson, New England is starting in a better spot than everyone in the AFC East except the Bills.
New York Jets Odds To Win AFC East: +2200
The Jets were one of the worst teams in the NFL last year. They were 28th in PFF grade, 26th in DVOA, and 25th in Weighted DVOA. As a result, they had the second-worst point differential, getting trounced by 194 points.
The rebuilding Jets added significant reinforcements to the roster in free agency and the draft. Specifically, they had two top-10 picks and the 26th and 36th selections in the NFL Draft. Adding four top-40 choices in the draft improves their nucleus, but expecting them all to hit the ground running is ambitious.
Case in point, the second pick in last year’s draft, Zach Wilson, endured growing pains for the Jets. Actually, referring to them as growing pains was underselling how badly he played. Wilson was arguably the worst starting quarterback in 2021. Among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts last year, he was 29th out of 31 in PFF offense grade, 33rd out of 34 in Total QBR, and dead last in IQR. If he can approach average play this year, that would be a massive improvement. Regardless, the Jets aren’t a legitimate threat for the AFC East. However, they could push the Dolphins for third if Wilson’s improvement exceeds Tua’s.
AFC East Predictions & Best Bet
The Patriots shouldn’t have longer odds than the Dolphins to finish second in the AFC East. It looks like a classic case of shiny-new-toy syndrome. Armstead and Hill are admittedly elite talents who move the needle for the Dolphins, but Miami’s roster started at a much lower point than New England’s 2021 playoff roster. The gap is assuredly smaller between the two clubs this year than last, but New England’s +190 odds to finish second in the AFC East is a compelling bet.
Best Bet: New England Patriots to finish second in the AFC East | +190 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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Football is back! DraftKings is running an exclusive offer leading up to kickoff.
Simply bet $5+ on any NFL or NCAAF game and get $200 in free bets instantly. No matter if your wager wins or loses.
This promotion expires on September 19 – so act now!
Tackle this special offer through our exclusive link here.
More Division Odds & Predictions
Check out Josh’s predictions from across the other NFL divisions: