What’s better than watching a moonshot home run? Watching a slugger blast that ball into orbit and winning cash along the way! Props.com will outline the best HR props of the day in this article.
Similar to our NRFI and strikeout props, these home run props and picks will be updated every day, so be sure to check back tomorrow for the next pair of best bets to hit a home run.
Best HR Prop Sites in Ohio
Best HR Props Today: Monday, Mar. 31
Below are the top home run props according to our daily research.
Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+420)
There may not have been a quieter 44-homer season than what Santander turned in with the Orioles last season. Most of the attention was focused on guys like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge – and rightfully so – but Santander was bashing baseballs all season. He also didn’t receive a ton of attention this offseason when he signed a five-year deal with the Blue Jays for $92.5M. That’s pennies compared to what the Mets shelled out for Juan Soto.
Of course, there’s a reason for that. Santander’s underlying metrics weren’t nearly as impressive as his actual marks. His Statcast data isn’t all that impressive for a slugger, and his .506 slugging percentage was well above his .445 expected mark.
Santander seems due for some regression this season, but he’s impossible to ignore Monday in a juicy matchup vs. Michael Soroka. Soroka was once a very promising pitcher for the Braves, but injuries have left him as a shell of his former self. He pitched to a 6.40 ERA in his return in 2023, and he followed that up with a 4.74 mark last season.
Most notably, Soroka has struggled with the long ball since his return to the bump. He surrendered a mouth-watering 2.51 homers per nine innings in 2023, and that figure was still an elevated 1.47 in 2024. Soroka struggles to rack up strikeouts, and the majority of the contact he surrenders gets airborne. He also ranked in the 14th percentile for barrel rate, which is not a good combination for keeping the ball in the yard.
Santander is a switch-hitter, but he has displayed a bit more power for his career when batting from the left side. 32 of his 44 homers came against right-handers last season, and he posted a .274 ISO in that split. Ultimately, +420 feels like a pretty generous price tag in this matchup.
Where to play: Anthony Santander To Hit a Home Run (+420) | FanDuel
Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+750)
Lowe is another player who changed teams this offseason, moving from the Rangers to the Nationals. He had a breakout season with Texas in 2022, launching a career-best 27 homers with a 147 wRC+, but he was unable to sustain that success the following two years. He still graded out as an above-average hitter, but the power numbers took a big step back. Lowe launched just 17 homers in 161 games in 2023, and he had just 16 homers last season.
Perhaps a change of scenery will help. Lowe has already slugged two homers through his first three games with his new squad, and he has a .538 ISO in that stretch. That’s obviously not sustainable, but it’s possible that he can get back to 20+ homers in 2025.
Lowe draws an interesting matchup Monday vs. Bowden Francis. Francis had an outstanding stretch to close out last season, but he still surrendered 1.48 homers per nine innings in 2024. He struggled mostly with left-handed batters, pitching to a 5.04 FIP in that split.
Francis came crashing back to reality in Spring Training this season, pitching to a 7.63 ERA across 15.1 innings. You shouldn’t read too much into Spring Training numbers, but Francis doesn’t profile as a particularly good pitcher: most of the major projection systems have him at around a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 HR/9. This seems like an exploitable matchup, so I’m happy to roll the dice with Lowe at +750.
Where to play: Nathaniel Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+750) | FanDuel
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Underdog 2025 MLBSZN Home Run Picks
Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers
Michael Toglia is a masher on an upward trajectory after a modest breakout in 2024. According to FanGraphs, in 116 games and 458 plate appearances last season, Toglia swatted 25 homers with a 32.1 K%, a .218 batting average, a .456 slugging, and a .238 ISO. Toglia’s strikeout rate was high, but he did an outstanding job of managing the strike zone (26.2 O-Swing% versus 28.6% league average in 2024), and his 14.9 SwStr% in 2024 was a sizable improvement upon his 18.1 SwStr% in 2023. Toglia can continue to improve his strikeout rate.
When Toglia put the ball in play, his quality of contact was superb. In fact, he was rather unlucky last year, evidenced by his .244 expected batting average (xBA) and .503 expected slugging (xSLG) outpacing his .218 batting average and .456 slugging.
Toglia was a Statcast darling. According to Baseball Savant, among qualified hitters in 2024, Togia was 15th in barrels per plate appearances percentage (9.6 Brls/PA%), tied for fifth in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (17.3 Brls/BBE%), tied for 31st in fly-balls/line-drives average exit velocity (95.7 MPH), 17th in hard-hit percentage (50.2% of his batted balls traveled 95-plus MPH), and 23rd in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (39.2 LA SwSp%).
Roster Resource projects Toglia to primarily hit fifth against righties this year after tallying only 176 of his 458 plate appearances (38.4%) fifth or earlier in Colorado’s lineup last year. His plate appearances can surge with a full-time role and upgraded lineup spot this season. As a result, FanGraphs Depth Charts (26 homers), ZiPS (25 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (25 homers), ATC (24 homers), OOPSY (25 homers), and FantasyPros’ Zeile consensus projections (24 homers) project Toglia to surpass 23.5 homers this season.
Where to play: Michael Toglia More Than 23.5 Homers | Underdog
Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers
Let’s start with the uncomfortable reason for selecting Cody Bellinger’s under for 24.5 homers. The Cubs traded Bellinger to the Yankees, and the veteran’s home ballpark is dreamy for left-handed homers. According to FantasyPros’ three-year park factor averages, Yankee Stadium has the fifth-highest park factor for left-handed home runs (1.238). Bellinger will undoubtedly hit some cheapies that leave under bettors tilted.
Nevertheless, Bellinger’s home ballpark can help him only so much. He hit 26 dongs in 2023 but fell back to Earth with only 18 in 2024. Bellinger’s 26 taters in 2023 were an outlier since his production cratered following his 2019 MVP campaign. Since 2020, he’s popped 12 round-trippers in 243 plate appearances, 10 in 350, 19 in 550, 26 in 556, and 18 in 569.
In 2,268 plate appearances since 2020, Bellinger has hit 85 homers. Thus, he’s averaged 0.0375 homers per plate appearance and 18.7 per 500 plate appearances. Even if you adjust to 600 plate appearances, Bellinger swatted only 22.5 homers per 600 plate appearances since 2020. Power hasn’t been in Bellinger’s tool belt.
Bellinger’s batted-ball data was lackluster last year, too. The lefty’s 2.60 batting average, .426 slugging, and .161 ISO exceeded his .242 xBA, .391 xSLG, and the manual calculation of his .149 xISO.
Among 252 qualified hitters last season, Bellinger was tied for 160th in barrels per plate appearance percentage (4.7 Brls/PA%), tied for 169 in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (6.3 Barrels/BBE%), tied for 215th in fly-ball/line-drive average exit velocity (90.6 MPH), 214th in hard-hit percentage (32.9%), and tied for 164th in launch-angle sweet spot percentage (32.9 LA SwSp%). Not even Yankee Stadium can cure all that ails Bellinger’s below-average batted-ball data, making 24.5 homers a line he’s unlikely to clear this year, and FanGraphs Depth Charts (23 homers), ZiPS (20 homers), ZiPS Depth Charts (22 homers), ATC (21 homers), The BAT (22 homers), The BAT X (19 homers), OOPSY (21 homers), and Zeile Consensus Projections (21 homers) peg him for fewer than 24.5 bombs.
Where to play: Cody Bellinger Less Than 24.5 Homers | Underdog
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