Dubbs Anderson, former PGA Tour caddy and host of the Props Golf podcast, is back in the betting saddle for this major. Hunting for those “plus-money peaches,” Anderson offers his top US Open picks, best bets, props, and sleepers. The event starts the morning of Thursday, June 16, so read up and get those picks in.
In addition to this betting preview, Anderson will release an episode early Saturday morning in which he will offer his favorite wagering opportunities heading into the weekend.
With that, here are Dubbs’ top US Open picks and best bets across the golf betting markets.
Odds updated as of 3:30 p.m. ET on June 14.
US Open Picks
The US Open will be played at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. John Rahm won this event in 2021, and he stands in with the third-best odds (+1500) to claim the top spot this time around. Recent winners of this tournament also include Bryson Dechambeau (2020), Gary Woodland (2019), Brooks Koepka (2018, 2017), and Dustin Johnson (2016).
As Dubbs noted on the podcast, this course rewards positional play. It’s an old-school golf course with thick rough and small, fast greens. With that in mind, accuracy off the tee, strokes gained on approach, and strokes gained around the green are the most important metrics to monitor heading into this event.
The following are edited excerpts of Anderson’s analysis from his latest episode of Props Golf, which he hosts twice weekly.
Justin Thomas Outright Winner (+1200)
Best odds available: +1200 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: We took Thomas as an outright winner last week at the RBC Canadian Open. He didn’t come away with the win, but the form is clearly there as he finished tied for second (two strokes back) in that event.
While looking at the key stats for this weekend, Thomas ranks 10th in strokes gained on approach, 20th in strokes gained around the green, and 148th in driving accuracy. That last metric isn’t entirely concerning, as Thomas has been driving with more confidence as of late.
It's #USOpen week and @mrdubbsie is fading the LIV guys. Instead, he's looking at Justin Thomas up top at 12-1, because JT ain't doing it for the money (OK, not JUST for the money) on Props Golf presented by @fliff. #ad
Get those golf bets sorted ⬇️
📻 https://t.co/qhQhrmnrex pic.twitter.com/Obl2Y9EWfT
— Props (@PropsUS) June 14, 2022
Thomas looked solid at the Canadian Open last weekend, but zooming out helps us appreciate his current form. Consider his last four events:
- Canadian Open: 3rd
- Charles Schwab Challenge: CUT
- PGA Championship: 1st
- AT&T Byron Nelson: 5th
He also finished T-8th at the Masters. In fact, Thomas has produced a top 10 finish in 11-of-17 events this season. He’s almost always in contention. Because of that, Dubbs prefers to lean on Thomas rather than the other top golfers on the board.
You can find Thomas with +1200 outright winner odds on FanDuel, which is a better price than +1100 on DraftKings and Caesars.
Patrick Cantlay Outright Winner (+2500)
Best odds available: +2500 at Caesars Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: Cantlay is an extremely talented golfer, and he doesn’t really have a weakness. We are getting an enticing 25-1 number on him due to his recent struggles in big tournaments. Some prime examples: Missing the cut at the PGA Championship and finishing T-39 at the Masters.
However, Cantlay has flexed winning upside over the last two months as well. He won the Zurich Classic, finished second in the RBC Heritage, and tied for third at the Memorial Tournament. That form could easily translate to the US Open this weekend.
The stats on Cantlay are well-rounded, making him a solid pick at 25-1. Consider these rankings:
- 18th in strokes gained off the tee
- 61st in strokes gained off approach
- 36th in strokes gained around the green
- 33rd in strokes gained putting
The US Open should play into his style, as he’s not a deep bomber off the tee. Instead, he’s a gritty tactician who can finesse his way through this course.
Go ahead and look towards Cantlay’s +2500 outright winner odds at Caesars Sportsbook. That beats the +2400 price at FanDuel and +2000 at DraftKings. Always shop for the best odds.
US Open Best Bet: Golf Insider Finds Extreme Value In Boosted Odds Pick
Cameron Smith Top 20 Finish (+110)
Best odds available: +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Dubbs’ Take: Smith has played in 13 events this season. Guess how many times he has finished in the Top 20? If you said more than half, you would be correct. The Australian native has eight finishes in the Top 20 this season, and he has won two events.
Smith leads the PGA Tour in birdies made, so you know he has the potential to make a run. Smith playing his best golf is a scary thought for the rest of the field. Just consider these impressive rankings for Smith:
- 4th in total strokes gained
- 11th in strokes gained putting
- 3rd in strokes gained on approach
- 24th in strokes gained around the green
Where’s the weakness? Smith is 143rd in strokes gained off the tee. While that’s concerning, it’s not an absolute deal-breaker. It shouldn’t be a major concern on this course either.
That’s why we like Smith to finish in the Top 20 for the US Open. You can find the best price on that bet (+110) at DraftKings Sportsbook.
More US Open Picks
Anderson offers additional US Open picks and other wagering-related strategies in the latest episode of Props Golf, including:
- A 120-1 longshot winner
- Three sleepers for outright winner bets
- Head-to-head matchup picks
- US Open props (playoff, hole-in-one, etc)
- Best Bets for a Top 20/40 Finish
- Fade plays
Watch/listen to the full episode on YouTube or simply press play on the video below. You can also listen to Props Golf on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Subscribe so you don’t miss when Dubbs drops his live US Open picks early on Saturday.
Listen & Subscribe: Youtube | Apple Podcasts | Spotify
Looking for more information on PGA Tour betting? Take a look at our complete Golf Betting Guide to get up to speed. You can also check out our PGA Tour Prop Betting Guide to dive deeper into these golf wagering styles.
