Wednesday Best Bets: One NHL Total, Two MLB Props

The extra rest served us well. After taking Memorial Day off, we started the week with a perfect 3-0 effort with Tuesday’s Best Bets. That brings us to 102-94-2 overall since we started this Best Bets experiment — good for a solid 52 percent win rate.

Let’s keep the momentum with three Best Bets for Wednesday: one NHL total and two MLB props.

All odds updated as of 2:40 p.m. ET on June 1.

Best Bets Track Record

Tuesday: 3-0
Year-To-Date: 102-94-2

Bostonian vs. The Book: 31-30-2
BetPrep Prop of the Day: 29-36
NBA Props: 33-21
NHL Props: 6-6
MLB Props: 2-1
MLB Sides: 1-0

NHL Total: Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

The bet: Under 5.5 total goals
The odds: -125
Where to bet: Caesars Sportsbook
From: Matt Perrault via The Bostonian Vs. The Book podcast

Matt Perrault of The Bostonian vs. The Book podcast (which can be found on the Props podcast page) is looking toward the NHL playoffs for Wednesday’s Bets Bets play.

After witnessing an 8-6 scorefest between the Avalanche and Oilers in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals on Tuesday, Perrault is counting on a much more defensive-oriented Eastern Conference Finals — so much so that he’s banking on Game 1 of Lightning vs Rangers staying Under 5.5 total goals.

As you might expect, Perrault is a big believer in both goalies: New York’s Igor Shesterkin of New York and Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Perrault envisions a 3-2 victory for one side or the other in Wednesday’s series opener. For what it’s worth, these teams met three times in the regular season, and Under 5.5 goals cashed twice. Perrault says that’s not a fluke but more of a sign of things to come in this series.

Caesars Sportsbook has the Lightning-Rangers Under 5.5 goals at -125 odds.

MLB Prop: SP Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)

The prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (at Boston)
The odds: -102
Where to bet: FanDuel Sportsbook
From: Spencer Limbach

While using BetPrep’s MLB Prop Cheat Sheet to rummage through dozens of player props, one bet stopped me dead in my tracks: Hunter Greene Over 5.5 strikeouts.

It seemed too good to be true. BetPrep’s system flashed a 74 percent edge to the Over. What does that mean? Let’s just say that anything above 30 percent is worth a serious wagering look.

After digging in a little deeper, here’s what I found:

• Greene has recorded six-plus strikeouts in eight of nine starts this season.
• The 22-year-old righty has an elite 11.4 K/9 rate that ranks sixth among starting pitchers (minimum 40 innings pitched).
• Greene is striking out batters at a higher rate than Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, and Aaron Nola.

Granted, the matchup doesn’t look great on paper, as the Red Sox have the ninth-lowest strikeout rate (20.9%) in MLB. However, this is Greene’s first time facing Boston, which is almost always an advantage for a pitcher (especially one who regularly hits 100 mph-plus on the radar gun).

Greene also has thrown 100-plus pitches in two of his last four starts, including 118 pitches at Pittsburgh on May 15. The Reds’ recent tendency to let their talented young prospect work deep into games means more opportunities to pile up Ks.

Looking to take Greene Over 5.5 strikeouts? You can find the best odds (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

BetPrep Prop of the Day: SP Reid Detmers (LA Angels)

The bet: Under 4.5 strikeouts (at NY Yankees)
The odds: -160
Where to bet: DraftKings Sportsbook
From: BetPrep Prop of the Day via BetPrep.com

BetPrep’s Prop of the Day easily cashed, as Chicago White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito went Over 5.5 strikeouts, whiffing eight Toronto hitters in just 4.2 innings. BetPrep is rolling with another pitching prop for Wednesday’s Best Bet, this time rooting for a hurler to stay Under his strikeout total.

The pick: Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers Under 4.5 strikeouts at the New York Yankees.

Detmers has recorded five-plus strikeouts in just one of eight starts this season, averaging 3.4 Ks per outing.

Even when Detmers is at his best, he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher. Consider: The 22-year-old rookie tossed a no-hitter against the Rays on May 10. He only recorded two strikeouts in nine innings (108 pitches). On Wednesday, Detmers faces a Yankees squad that’s below-average in strikeout rate this season.

You can find Detmers Under 4.5 strikeouts at FanDuel. Yes, there’s hefty -160 juice attached to this prop, but when considering the aforementioned stats, it’s still a sound wager.