Week 3 officially begins with the Carolina Panthers visiting the Houston Texans, and we have some Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks to get in on the action. Not a member of Underdog Fantasy yet? No problem!
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- Create an account on Underdog Fantasy.
- Use the promo code PROPS to claim an extra $10 on your first deposit.
- Go to the Pick’em Games.
- Make two or more selections to receive a correlated payout of 3x, 6x, 10x, or 20x.
It’s pretty fun, and Underdog Fantasy is available in most states except for the following: Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Nevada, Louisiana, Montana, Washington, Delaware, and Iowa.
Now, let’s take a look at my favorite Underdog Fantasy NFL picks for Thursday Night Football of Week 3.
Robby Anderson MINUS 38.5 Receiving Yards Vs. Ian Thomas
This matchup is tailor-made for Anderson’s vertical usage. According to Pro Football Focus, Anderson’s average depth of target of 22.3 yards downfield is the second-deepest mark among players targeted at least five times this year.
Yes, his field-stretching usage creates volatility, as deep passes are more challenging to complete. However, Sam Darnold should have an easier time connecting with his speedy wideout, given Houston’s inability to pressure the passer. Pro-Football-Reference credits the Texans with the fifth-lowest pressure percentage (12.5%). In addition, Anderson proved to be more than a one-trick pony last year, so there’s a chance the coaching staff could utilize him as more than a home-run option.
As for Thomas, he’s essentially a non-factor in the passing game. He’s been targeted four times this year, catching two passes for 24 yards. However, he has stone hands, dropping one ball this year. Pro Football Focus credits him with a staggering 11.9% drop rate for his career.
His pass-catching struggles presumably are recognized by the coaching staff. As a result, he’s run only 25 routes this year, well behind Anderson’s 68. Further, they also trail fellow tight end Dan Arnold’s 46 routes.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Thomas fails to reach double-digit receiving yards. He’s fallen short of that modest threshold in 30 of 50 games. Moreover, he’s cleared 10 yards in only six of 19 games with the current coaching regime. As a result, I view this selection as a bargain pivot off Anderson’s individual receiving yardage prop.
Editor’s Note: Don’t miss our Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks column for the Sunday Week 3 slate, which comes out this Friday!
Christian McCaffrey MINUS 38.5 Rushing Yards Vs. Mark Ingram
Perhaps overshadowed by McCaffrey’s prodigious receiving marks as a running back is his ability as a runner. He’s averaging 85.0 rushing yards per game this year, managed 75.0 rushing yards per game in three games in 2020, and amassed 86.7 rushing yards per game in 2019.
He’s force-fed the rock. Further, he has a cushy matchup this week, and a projected favorable game script with the Panthers favored by eight points. As for the matchup, Football Outsiders ranks the Texans 30th in run defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) — more on run defense DVOA to come.
Houston’s coughed up 5.38 yards per rush attempt to running backs. Additionally, according to Sharp Football Stats, they’re tied for the 10th-highest average explosive run rate allowed at 12%.
As promised, I’m circling back to run defense DVOA. That’s because the Panthers rank first. They’ve allowed only 57 rushing yards to the opposing backs on 28 carries, the fewest rushing yards ceded to backs by a whopping 30 yards. They didn’t face a slob last week, either. Alvin Kamara’s one of the best running backs in the game — and the same can’t be said about his aging former teammate, Ingram.
Ingram’s entrenched in a four-back running-back-by-committee situation, and he’s likely to ride the pine if rookie Davis Mills buries them in a sizable deficit early. Mills has only 11 collegiate starts under his belt, and he’s facing a defense that leads the NFL in pressure percentage at a superb 44.4%. Thus, I’m expecting him to be a deer in the headlights and put his team in a hole.
Bet Prep supports this best, too. They project CMC for 90.62 rushing yards and Ingram for only 38.32.
Dan Arnold OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards
Arnold’s over for 22.5 receiving yards wraps up my favorite picks. Once again, Bet Prep is in alignment with me, projecting him for 34.40 receiving yards, comfortably over his prop. Arnold’s the pass-catching tight end on the team.
Actually, he’s probably better described as a big-bodied slot based on his usage. He’s played 41 passing snaps, run 39 routes, and lined up in the slot for 29 of those plays. In addition, Arnold’s an intermediate target, sporting an average depth of target of 8.2 yards downfield.
After catching two of three targets for six yards in the opener, he hauled in three of four for 55 yards last week. This week’s matchup sets up nicely for involvement for a second-straight week. Houston’s coughed up the second-most receptions (18) and third-most receiving yards (177) to the position on 21 targets.
You might be wondering if they’ve faced elite tight ends. The short answer is no. The long answer is Chris Manhertz, James O’Shaugnessy, Harrison Bryant, David Njoku, and Austin Hooper aren’t among the game’s top-flight tight ends. Out of that group, Manhertz and Njokue fell short of Arnold’s yardage prop, with the former hauling in his only target for a 22-yard touchdown and the latter catching two of three targets for 18 yards. The other three tight ends all surpassed 22.5 receiving yards.
Therefore, I expect Arnold to be the next tight end to exploit Houston’s susceptibility to defend the position. The over appears to be the play here.