Ten days ago, the Tampa Bay Lightning were one defeat away from seeing their two-year reign as Stanley Cup champions come to an end. Now, they’re favored on the NHL playoff odds board to sweep their second-round series, reach a third consecutive Eastern Conference final, and keep their three-peat dream alive.
One day after rolling to their fifth consecutive victory — a 5-1 blowout of the Florida Panthers in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals — Tampa Bay returns to the ice Monday night looking to eliminate their instate rivals. The Lightning, who have outscored Florida 11-3 in the first three contests, are a slight home favorite in Game 4.
While Tampa Bay tries to send this year’s President Trophy winner into summer vacation, the Colorado Avalanche will attempt to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over St. Louis. The high-powered Avalanche are big road favorites in Game 4, in part because they won’t have to face the Blues’ No. 1 goaltender, who is injured and out for the remainder of the best-of-7 clash.
Will Tampa Bay and Colorado — two of the top three favorites to win this year’s Stanley Cup — get the job done Monday night? Props.com breaks down NHL playoff odds and action for Monday’s two Game 4 matchups.
Odds via PointsBet USA and WynnBet, and updated as of 7 p.m. ET on May 23.
Florida Panthers vs Tampa Bay Lightning (Game 4)
Puck Drop/TV: 7 p.m. ET/TNT
Moneyline: Lightning -130/Panthers +110
Puckline: Lightning -1.5 (+185)/Panthers +1.5 (-230)
Total: 6 (Over -130/Under +110)
Best-of-7 series: Tampa Bay leads, 3-0.
Updated series odds: Tampa Bay -2000/Florida +900
Game 3 recap: The Lightning broke a 1-1 tie with a pair of second-period goals, then tacked on a pair of empty-netters late in the third period and cruised to a 5-1 victory Sunday. Steven Stamkos scored a pair of goals, and Nikita Kucherov had a four-point performance (1 goal, 3 assists). Tampa Bay cashed as a consensus +100 home underdog. The game fell short of the 6.5-goal total for the third straight time in the series.
Slap Shots
Panthers: Florida’s current three-game losing skid is its first since mid-December (Feb. 22-26, all at home). The Panthers have lost four in a row just once (Nov. 8-13). Ironically, the fourth loss during that skid was a 3-2 overtime setback at Tampa Bay. … Florida is now 4-5 in the playoffs and 5-8 overall since a 14-game winning streak from March 29-April 23. … The Panthers have scored a single goal in all three games against Tampa Bay. Prior to this series, Florida had not been held to one or zero goals in consecutive games all season … After averaging an NHL-best 4.11 goals per game in the regular season, the Panthers are producing just 2.76 goals through nine playoff games. … Going back to the regular season, Florida is 11-5 in its last 16 as a visitor (2-2 in the playoffs).
Lightning: Tampa Bay has won five in a row dating to Game 6 of the first round against Toronto. The Lightning are 15-5 in their last 20 games (7-3 in the playoffs). They also are 9-2 in their last 11 at home, scoring at least four goals in eight of those victories. … Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy was spectacular again in Game 5, stopping 34 of 35 shots. He’s yielded exactly one goal in each of the last four games after giving up 21 goals in Tampa’s first six postseason contests. In this series, Vasilevskiy has allowed just three goals on 105 shots. … The Lightning have scored first in seven straight games. … Center Brayden Point (lower-body injury) hasn’t played in the series. Point (28 goals, 30 assists) is questionable for Game 4. … Tampa Bay is now 5-2 against the Panthers this season.
From the Penalty Box
Florida’s lone goal in Game 3 came on the power play, ending an 0-for-25 drought with a man advantage. The Panthers, who had the fifth-most prolific power play in the regular season, failed to convert two other power-play chances, dropping them to 1-for-28 on the power play in the postseason. Florida killed both of Tampa Bay’s penalties in Game 3, but still has allowed a playoff-high 11 power-play goals. Its 69.6% penalty-kill rate is fourth worst in the postseason.
The Lightning are 11-for-43 in the playoffs (3-for-8 in the series). Those 11 power-play goals lead all teams in the postseason. Tampa Bay ranks 4th on the penalty kill (five goals allowed in 38 chances, 86.8%).
Betting Nuggets
- Florida is 1-4 in its last five as an underdog (all on the road)
- Florida is 2-10 in its last 12 as a playoff underdog
- Tampa Bay is 27-5 in its last 30 conference semifinal games
- Tampa Bay is 20-8 in its last 20 as a playoff favorite at home
- Under is 12-5-4 in Florida’s last 21 overall
- Over is 8-2 in Tampa Bay’s last nine home games
- Tampa Bay is 22-8 in its last 30 home clashes vs Florida
- Under is 7-2 in the last nine series meetings
Game 4 prediction: Lightning 5, Panthers 2
Colorado Avalanche vs St. Louis Blues (Game 4)
Puck Drop/TV: 9:30 p.m. ET/TNT
Moneyline: Avalanche -165/Blues +145
Puckline: Avalanche -1.5 (+152)/Blues +1.5 (-185)
Total: 6.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Best-of-7 series: Colorado leads, 2-1.
Updated series odds: Colorado -800/St. Louis +550
Game 3 recap: The Avalanche spotted St. Louis a 1-0 lead for the third straight time in the series but scored five of the next six goals — all against St. Louis’ backup goaltender — for a 5-2 victory Saturday. Colorado cashed as a consensus -165 road favorite. Avalanche left wing Artturi Lehkonen lit the lamp twice, including an empty-netter with 58 seconds remaining that sent the game Over the 6.5-goal total. The Under remains 2-1 for the series.
Slap Shots
Avalanche: Colorado improved to 6-1 in the playoffs with the victory. The Avs, who lost their final four regular-season road games (outscored 17-7), are 3-0 as a visitor in the postseason. They’ve outscored their opponents 17-8 in those three victories. … Colorado is averaging an NHL-best 4.29 goals per game in the playoffs …. The Avs are 8-3 in their last 11 against St. Louis, including 4-2 this season. However, they have just a 21-19 edge in goals in this year’s six meetings. … The winning team has scored at least four goals in 11 of the last 12 Avalanche-Blues meetings.
Blues: Starting goalie Jordan Binnington, who stopped 81 of 85 shots in the first two games, left Game 3 with a lower-body injury less than seven minutes into the contest. Binnington, who had stopped all three shots he faced before departing, has been ruled out for the rest of the series. He had a 1.72 goals-against average and a .949 save percentage in six playoff starts. … Ville Husso replaced Binnington and allowed four goals on 23 shots. … The Blues (5-4 in the playoffs) had won four of five prior to Saturday, giving up a total of nine goals. They’re still 19-6-2 dating to March 28, including 8-3-1 at home. … St. Louis has tallied a total of seven goals in its four postseason losses and 23 in its six wins. … The Blues have scored first in six straight games and seven of nine in the playoffs.
From the Penalty Box
Colorado went 0-for-1 on the power play Saturday, dropping to 1-for-6 in the series. St. Louis failed to score on its two power-play chances in Game 3 and is now 2-for-5 with a man advantage in the series. Despite that combined 3-for-11 effort, the Avalanche (8-for-22) and Blues (10-for-31) continue to rank first and second in the postseason, respectively, on the power play by percentage. St. Louis’ 10 power-play goals are second only to Tampa Bay (11).
The Blues have killed 25 of 30 power plays (83.3%, 7th). Colorado has killed 13 of 18 (72.2%, 11th).
Betting Nuggets
- Colorado is 23-9 in its last 32 playoff games as a favorite
- Avalanche are 19-9 in their last 28 road games
- Colorado is 8-18 in its last 26 conference semifinal games
- St. Louis is 3-9 in its last 12 as a playoff underdog
- Over is 14-6-1 in Colorado’s last 21 conference semifinal games
- Over is 23-11 in St. Louis’ last 35 overall
- Favorite is 38-15 in the last 53 series meetings
- Road team is 6-2 in the last eight Avs-Blues clashes
- Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in St. Louis (4-0 last four)
Game 4 prediction: Avalanche 7, Blues 2
NHL Playoff Odds and Action Updates
Panthers vs Lightning
UPDATE 5 P.M. ET MONDAY: Two hours before faceoff, Tampa Bay is a -130 chalk in PointsBet USA’s Monday NHL playoff odds market. That’s up a nickel from Sunday evening’s -125 opener, with the Lightning toggling a few times between -125 and -130. Moneyline ticket count is 2/1 and moneyline dollars 4/1 on the Lightning, with bettors expecting Tampa to wrap up this series.
The total opened at 6.5 (Under -120), quickly dipped to 6 (Over -120) and has been at 6 (Over -130) since midafternoon today. The Over is taking a modest majority 57% of tickets, but that’s translating into 80% of cash on the Over.
UPDATE 1:45 P.M. ET MONDAY: Tampa Bay remains a -125 home favorite at DraftKings, with Florida sticking at +105. Early moneyline action favors the home team, with the Lightning taking 72% of both tickets and money.
The puckline has adjusted slightly from Tampa Bay (-1.5) +190/Florida (+1.5) -235 to Tampa Bay +180/Florida -220. The Lightning are also seeing the bulk of the puckline tickets (69%) and cash (84%). The total, which moved from 6.5/Under -120 to 6/Over -120 overnight, is now at 6/Over -125. There’s two-way action on the total, with 65% of bets on the Under and 66% of dollars on the Over.
UPDATE 12:20 A.M. ET MONDAY: After taking the ice as an underdog in the first three games of this series, the Lightning were installed as a -120 home chalk for Game 4 on DraftKings’ NHL playoff odds board. Florida was at +100. The moneyline has since shifted to Lightning -125/Panthers +105.
The puckline opened at Tampa Bay (-1.5) +190/Florida (+1.5) -235 and has held there. Even though the Under has cashed in all three games of the series, the total once again opened at 6.5, with -120 juice to the Under. However, the number has since adjusted to 6/Over -120 at DraftKings.
Avalanche vs Blues
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET MONDAY: Colorado opened as a -159 favorite in WynnBet’s Monday NHL playoff odds market. The Avalanche have twice toggled to -165, where the moneyline sits now, 2.5 hours before puck drop.
Colorado is taking a nominal majority of moneyline tickets, at 55%, but that’s translating into 78% of moneyline dollars. Perhaps interestingly, bettors are laying the -185 juice on St. Louis puckline +1.5, with tickets and money 2/1 on the Blues.
The total opened at 6.5 (Over -115) and hasn’t budged, with ticket count almost dead even and 62% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE 1:45 P.M. ET MONDAY: The Avalanche have bounced between -160 and -165 on DraftKings’ NHL playoff odds board. The moneyline is currently at Colorado -160/St. Louis +140, with the majority of the tickets (79%) and cash (71%) on the road favorite.
The puckline has shifted slightly, from the opener of Avalanche (-1.5) +150/Blues (+1.5) -170 to Avalanche +155/Blues -180. Ticket count at DraftKings is split nearly 50-50 (52% Avs/48% Blues), but the vast majority of the cash (82%) is on Colorado. The total is holding firm at 6.5, with a slight juice adjustment from Over -115 to -110 both ways. The Over is attracting 82% of the wagers and 60% of the money.
UPDATE 12:20 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Colorado hit DraftKings’ NHL playoff odds board as a -160 favorite for Game 4 and briefly ticked up to -165 before returning to the opener. Currently, though, the money is back to Avalanche -165/Blues +145.
The puckline opened and remains at Avalanche (-1.5) +150/Blues (+1.5) -170. For the fourth straight time in this series, the total opened at 6.5, with -115 juice to the Over. So far, there’s been no movement on the total.
