Tom Brady is considered the “GOAT” by many people, and he started out this season looking like his recent claim that he could play until 50 is true. Brady is coming off of an incredible debut last Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys, where he threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns along with two interceptions. Will those interceptions continue, or were those just a flash in the pan?
Brady is not someone that generally is known for putting the ball in harm’s way like some other elite quarterbacks are. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes are very aggressive with the ball, meaning that while they don’t throw 1000 picks a season, your heart skips a beat a few times a game if you take the under.
Interception Prop
Tom Brady threw an interception in 8 of 20 games last season, but he threw 15 total interceptions. While I don’t know the going rate for average interceptions thrown in games, the QB throws one interception; I’d guess 15/8 is on the very high side, meaning that when it rains, it pours for Brady when it comes to throwing interceptions.
Tom Brady’s current interpretation prop is listed at 0.5 with a juice of -110, meaning that Vegas suggests that Brady is basically 50/50 to throw an interception on Sunday afternoon. Based on the recent trends of Brady’s last 20 games, I think I would lean towards the under just barely. That being said, is there any other information that we can use to make a better bet?
Looking For More Information
I think that looking at last year’s matchup with the Falcons is not the worst idea in the world, just to check if anything is notable. In those games, Brady threw one interception, meaning that he would have been right in line with the prop posted in a tiny sample size.
Defensive Scheme Advantage
While we slightly prefer the under on the 0.5 interception prop, we haven’t found anything that makes me want to go bet it at my local sportsbook. I do think that looking into the defensive scheme and tendencies of the Falcons this year is a good place to find an edge in this specific scenario. Atlanta is running a really aggressive defense this year, but they don’t have the horses to play it very well, and I expect them to really struggle against high-powered passing offenses.
Their cornerback talent isn’t great, and they seem to want to rely on a lot of man-to-man with and blitzing to try and get to the QB. However, the Bucs offensive line is great, and Brady is elite at identifying blitzers and making sure they are dealt with one way or another.
The other key here is that man-to-man defense is less likely to result in interceptions in general because the defenders are looking at their man more than they are looking at the QB. In zone coverage, the defenders read the QBs eyes to cover a zone on the field, meaning they are more likely to jump a passing route and come up with an interception.
The Pick: UNDER .5 interceptions for Tom Brady vs. the Falcons.