Week 1 is always difficult to bet on overs and unders because, in many cases, the usage of players is a mystery before the season begins. For Week 2, we are more informed, both in what to expect from quarterbacks and also from the defenses they are facing.
Lamar Jackson – Over 223.5 Passing Yards
In Week 1, the Ravens had a big lead, so they were tilted more toward rush attempts than many people thought, considering the way their running back has been decimated by injury.
This week against the Chiefs, they are likely to be playing from behind, thus upping Lamar Jackson’s pass attempts against an average Chiefs secondary. Making this play even better is the Kansas City pass rush that was non-existent in Week 1. Give Jackson time to find the open man, and he will.
He threw for 235 against Las Vegas in Week 1, against the Chiefs in 2019, he threw for 267, and on Sunday night, he will once again get over 223 yards.
Carson Wentz – Under 248.5 Passing Yards
New Colts quarterback Carson Wentz did throw for 251 yards in Week 1 against Seattle. But you have to go back six games, to last October, to find his previous game over 248 yards.
Indianapolis’s best weapon is Johnathan Taylor running the ball, which we should see plenty against the Rams. And what Wentz is not good at is avoiding the rush, which is an Aaron Donald specialty. Add in the continued absence of T.Y. Hilton and a Rams secondary that held the Bears to 206 passing yards, and it becomes a safe bet that Wentz will also find the going tough.
Teddy Bridgewater – Over 243.5 Passing Yards
The Broncos may have their quarterback. The Giants’ secondary is no slouch, yet on Sunday, the new Broncos signal-caller threw for 264 yards on 28-of-36 passing. The rest of the Broncos’ early schedule is soft, making it a safe bet that Bridgewater will remain that accurate for at least the next few weeks.
Tyrod Taylor just found the going easy against the Jacksonville defense, and so will Bridgewater. Taylor and the Texans threw for 291 yards, and there’s no reason to think that with a weapon like Courtland Sutton, the same won’t happen this week.
Look for Bridgewater to go for 275 to 300 yards and easily hit the over.
Russell Wilson – Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns
In 2020 the Titans gave up at least three passing touchdowns to six different quarterbacks. In 2021, they’re off to an even worse start, getting torched for four touchdown passes from Kyler Murray.
Murray and the Cardinals’ offense is good, but Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, are better. Wilson threw for four touchdowns on Sunday in Indianapolis – two to Lockett and one to Metcalf – and the Tennessee defense is considerably worse than the Colts D he just carved up.
It’s also worth noting that in eight home games last season, Wilson threw at least three touchdowns five different times.
