The Golden State Warriors missed their first chance to eliminate the Denver Nuggets. Now the Warriors will look to slam the door in Game 5 to keep from giving life to presumptive league MVP Nikola Jokic and Denver.
Golden State, the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, is a massive -30,000 at WynnBet to win one of the next three games and clinch the best-of-7 series against No. 6 Denver (+4000). In fact, the Warriors are big favorites to finish off the Nuggets at home in Game 5.
Props.com grabs insights from multiple oddsmakers for NBA playoff odds on Nuggets vs. Warriors Game 5. Check back for updates through Wednesday’s tipoff.
NBA Playoff Odds and Betting Action
No. 6 Denver Nuggets vs No. 3 Golden State Warriors (10 p.m. ET)
UPDATE 8:30 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Ninety minutes before game time, the Warriors are laying 8.5 points in TwinSpires Sportsbook’s Wednesday NBA playoff odds market. That matches Sunday night’s opening number, although the Warriors spent time at -9.
The Nuggets are seeing 55% of spread tickets, while 59% of spread money is on the Warriors. Bettors seem much more inclined to play Warriors moneyline, even juiced to -400, than lay 8.5 points in Game 5.
“Great two-way action on the spread,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said. “The moneyline market is a different story. It’s 20/1 money on Golden State moneyline. And moneyline parlay liability is through the roof.”
The total crept down from 226 to 225.5, with the Over netting 60% of tickets/55% of money.
UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: With about four hours to go until game time, it’s clear bettors at PointsBet USA expect Golden State to finish off this series. Particularly when looking at moneyline wagering, with a couple of sizable bets on the Warriors. Bettors are more than willing to lay the heavy juice and not worry about the point spread tonight.
The Warriors opened -400 on the moneyline Sunday night, stretched to -455 late Monday, receded to -370 this morning and are now back at -400. Golden State is attracting 81% of moneyline tickets and 93% of moneyline cash, due in large part to an $80,000 play on Warriors -400. PointsBet also took a $20,000 Warriors -400 wager.
In contrast, spread ticket count is two-way, with 55% on Golden State, though that’s translating to 76% of point-spread cash. The Warriors opened -8.5 in PointsBet’s Wednesday NBA playoff odds market and made a couple of trips to -9. This morning, the line backed up to -8 very briefly, before returning to the -8.5 opener, and the line is now Warriors -8.5 (-105).
The total opened at 225.5, peaked at 226 Tuesday afternoon, then returned to 225.5 (Over -115) this afternoon. The Over is netting 66% of tickets, while 69% of cash is on the Under.
UPDATE 7 P.M. ET TUESDAY: Jokic had 37 points, eight rebounds and six assists in Game 4, and the Nuggets held on for a 126-121 victory as 4.5-point home underdogs. The Over is still perfect in the series, with Game 4 being the highest-scoring yet.
Steph Curry had 33 points and Klay Thompson had 32, but Golden State shot a pedestrian 12-for-34 (35.3 percent) on 3-pointers and missed nine free throws, including a stunning four by Curry (10-for-14), who is a 90.8 percent shooter from the line for his career.
Denver’s win halted streaks for each team. The Warriors had been on an 8-1 SU and ATS run, including 3-0 in the series. The Nuggets “improved” to 7-15 in their last 22 ATS.
The Warriors opened as 8.5-point favorites in Game 5 at TwinSpires and have moved to -9, with 54% of bets on the Nuggets but 56% of money on Golden State. “Great two-way action so far,” Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports, said. The total opened at 226 and is down to 225.5 despite 62% of bets and 52% of money on the Over.