We went 3-for-4 with Saturday’s NCAA Tournament Elite Eight props for the West and South regions, missing perfection only because Duke’s Paolo Banchero drained one 3-pointer when we needed at least two.
Perfection remains the goal Sunday, as we roll out four more NCAA Tournament Elite Eight props for the East and Midwest regions, whose brackets have blown up. Yes, No. 1 seed Kansas is still alive in the Midwest, but the Jayhawks are the only seed higher than No. 8 in either game Sunday.
First, Kansas is a 5.5-point favorite over No. 10 seed Miami (Fla.) in the Midwest final, then No. 8 North Carolina is an 8.5-point favorite over Cinderella No. 15 seed St. Peter’s in the East final.
Props.com breaks down four NCAA Tournament Elite Eight props for Sunday’s games.
Odds via FanDuel and updated as of 11 a.m. ET on March 27.
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NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Props: Miami Vs Kansas
Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: Kansas -5.5 (-115)/147.5
Kansas Jayhawks: F Jalen Wilson
The prop: 12.5 points
The odds: Over -128/Under +100
Miami is an awful rebounding team — ranking 319th in the country in rebounding margin coming into the NCAA Tournament — and that should lead to a big day for Kansas forward Jalen Wilson.
The 6-foot-8 sophomore has collected double-doubles in the past two games. He had 14 points and 14 rebounds against Creighton in the second round, then 16 and 11 in Friday’s Sweet 16 win over Providence. And that’s with Creighton and Providence ranking in the top 100 in rebounding margin pre-Tournament.
Wilson put up those point totals despite shooting a combined 10-for-30 (33.3%) from the field, compared with his season average of 47.8.
Look for Wilson to have plenty of opportunities for second-chance points off the glass. If those opportunities do arise, he should sail Over 12.5 points.
Miami Hurricanes: F Sam Waardenburg
The prop: 9.5 points
The odds: Over -102/Under -125
Sam Waardenburg had what was simply an outlier performance in the Hurricanes’ 70-56 victory over Iowa State in the Sweet 16 on Friday.
The 6-foot-10 senior from New Zealand scored 13 points, including going 3-for-7 from 3-point range. Now here’s why that’s an outlier: Waardenburg had made three or more 3s in only five of his first 33 games with Miami this season.
Also prior to Friday, Waardenburg had failed to go over 9.5 points in five consecutive games, averaging just 5.4 points in those contests. For the season, he’s netting just 8.6 points per game.
Another reason Waardenburg is unlikely to score in double figures Sunday: He should be preoccupied with trying to keep Miami afloat in the rebounding battle.
Bet Waardenburg to stay Under 9.5 points against Kansas.
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Props: St. Peter’s Vs North Carolina
Time: 5:05 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Spread/Total: North Carolina -8.5/137.5
North Carolina Tar Heels: Winning Margin
The prop: North Carolina to win by 11 or more
The odds: +128
This isn’t a fun one, but it’s time for St. Peter’s to say goodbye.
The Peacocks have already advanced farther in the NCAA Tournament than any No. 15 seed in history. They stunned No. 2 seed Kentucky, No. 7 Murray State and No. 3 Purdue to reach the Elite Eight.
North Carolina has gone to another level late in the season. The Tar Heels ruined coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final home game at Duke with a 94-81 romp to secure an NCAA Tournament bid, then reached the semifinals of the ACC tournament.
The Tar Heels have grown even stronger in the Big Dance. After crushing No. 9 seed Marquette 95-63 in the opening round, North Carolina blew a 25-point lead but fought back to eliminate defending national champion and No. 1 seed Baylor in overtime, 93-86. Then, in the Sweet 16, the Tar Heels survived a bruising battle with No. 4 UCLA — which reached the Final Four last season — rallying late for a 73-66 victory.
North Carolina is playing its best basketball of the season. Don’t expect it to slip up now, especially with a rematch against rival Duke awaiting in the Final Four.
Bet North Carolina to beat St. Peter’s by 11 or more at a nice plus-price.
North Carolina Tar Heels: F Brady Manek
The prop: 15.5 points
The odds: Over -122/Under -104
Brady Manek has been a monster down the stretch for North Carolina, and St. Peter’s should struggle to stop his inside-outside game.
The 6-foot-9 senior was held to 13 points against UCLA in the Sweet 16 while shooting just 5-of-13, but that goes against his recent grain. Manek scored 20 or more in five of his six previous games, including 28 against Marquette and 26 against Baylor. The latter tally was amassed in just 28 minutes, as the Oklahoma transfer was ejected midway through the second half after being called for a flagrant foul for elbowing.
North Carolina is an up-tempo team that should wear out what has been a great St. Peter’s defense in the NCAA Tournament. And Manek figures to be right in the middle of the Tar Heels’ assault.
Bet him to score at least 16 points for the eighth time in his last 10 games and lead UNC to the Final Four.
For extra action, consider a combined prop on Manek to score 20 or more points and North Carolina to win at +265.
