Each weekday, Props.com selects five intriguing player and/or team NBA props from a busy night of action. Then, we do what we do best: Provide in-depth analysis that you can choose to use (or not use!) for wagering purposes.
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With that, let’s dive into our top NBA Props for Monday’s eight-game slate.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook updated as of 12 p.m. ET on Mar. 7.
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Detroit Pistons: PG Cory Joseph
The prop: 6.5 points
The odds: Over -130/Under +100
The Pistons have quietly been playing some solid basketball of late. They’ve won seven of their past nine games, which is easily their best stretch of the season. Detroit also has some impressive victories over that span, including road wins over the Celtics and Raptors and a home win over the Cavaliers.
Joseph has been a solid part of their rotation during their winning streak. He’s started each of those contests, and he’s averaged 26.4 minutes per game. That number would be significantly higher if not for a game where he played just 15.5 minutes vs. the Wizards.
Joseph is far from a scoring maven, but he should be able to hit the over on 6.5 points with that much playing time. He’s scored at least seven points in three of his past five games, and the Hawks represent a solid matchup for scoring. They rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season, so Joseph has a bit more upside than usual.
Atlanta Hawks: C Clint Capela
The prop: 1.5 blocks
The odds: Over -105/Under -130
There was a short stretch where Capela was one of the last big men standing for the Hawks, but that time has come to an end. John Collins returned to the Hawks lineup in their last game, and Onyeka Okongwu is not on the injury report on Monday.
With that in mind, Capela should return to a reduced role vs. the Pistons. He remained in the starting lineup in the Hawks’ last game – Collins came off the bench – but it’s possible those two players flip spots on Monday. Even as a member of the starting lineup, Capela grabbed just 23.2 minutes in his last contest. He still managed three blocks in that game, but it’s going to be tough for him to consistently hit the over on 1.5 blocks with such minimal playing time. He’s averaged just 1.4 blocked shots in nearly 28 minutes per game this season, so this number is simply too high if he’s going to be limited to around 24 minutes.
Philadelphia 76ers: PG/SG James Harden
The prop: 23.5 points
The odds: Over -120/Under -105
Harden and Joel Embiid have fit together like lamb and tuna fish during their brief tenure with the 76ers. Or spaghetti and meatballs, if you’re more comfortable with that analogy.
Harden got the night off in the 76ers’ game at Miami on Friday, and the team suffered its first defeat since he joined the rotation (Philly also scored a season-low 82 points). He’ll be back in the lineup on Monday for an important showdown vs. the Bulls.
However, Harden has been far less aggressive than usual since joining the 76ers. He’s averaged just 12.3 field-goal attempts through his first four games, and he’s posted a usage rate of just 24.5 percent. He’s made up for it with some lethal shooting efficiency — the former NBA MVP has made 59.2 percent of his field goals, 50.0 percent of his 3-pointers, and 90.2 percent of his free throws.
That’s why Harden put up 29, 26, and 25 points in his three contests with Philly. It’s also why he’s a prime candidate for some regression moving forward. I’ll gladly take the Under on Harden’s scoring prop in this matchup.
Los Angeles Lakers: SG Malik Monk
The prop: 23.5 points + rebounds + assists
The odds: Over -110/Under -120
Monk has been one of the lone bright spots in what has otherwise been a dismal season for the Lakers. They did manage to secure a comeback victory over the Warriors in their last outing, but they’ve still won just two of their past nine games. They’re down to just ninth place in the Western Conference standings, and the Pelicans are gaining ground quickly. It still seems unlikely that the Lakers fall out of the play-in tournament entirely – the bottom of the Western Conference is dismal – but they’ve still had a massively underwhelming season.
Monk has been asked to pick up the slack with Anthony Davis out of the lineup and Russell Westbrook struggling, and he’s done an admirable job of late. Still, this number seems way too high. He’s averaged 33.5 minutes over his past three contests, and he’s responded with an average of 22.7 points + rebounds + assists. He’s hit the under on 23.5 in each of his past two games, and I like his chances of making it three in a row vs. the Spurs.
Sacramento Kings: SF/PF Harrison Barnes
The prop: 16.5 points
The odds: Over -105/Under -120
Barnes is one of the more underrated scorers in the league, and this is the perfect opportunity to buy low on him. He’s coming off just nine points in his last outing, but he still played a whopping 38.1 minutes. He played a similar number of minutes in his previous contest, and he responded with 27 points. Overall, Barnes has averaged 18.3 points per 36 minutes this season.
He also draws a solid matchup Monday vs. the Knicks. New York has played at a slow pace this season, but they’ve also been subpar defensively. The Knicks will also be on the second leg of a back-to-back after defeating the Clippers on Sunday. They could be a bit fatigued for this matchup, especially if they enjoyed a wonderful evening in Los Angeles.
